My esteemed colleague Alan Henry is well-connected down Woking way and he is reporting in The Guardian with alarming certainty that World Champion Jenson Button has agreed terms to join McLaren on a £6m-a-year deal and could sign his formal three-year contract to partner Lewis Hamilton in an all-British line-up within the next few days. It is (once again) the word “could” that will decide the story. This could still be a last ditch attempt to negotiate a better deal with Brawn. Then again, it could be the end of the Button-Brawn miracle.
Button signing for McLaren would be a surprise for a number of reasons, but when it comes to McLaren Alan rarely gets it wrong. My sources have been saying for a while that the deal was not likely as Button’s position at Brawn seemed a comfortable one and going up against Hamilton was always going to be a tremendous challenge for Jenson. Good for him if he does it. It may be his undoing, but I guess that when you have a World Championship in the bag you have to have bigger ambitions and beating Hamilton in “his” team is a mighty ambition.
Such a move would also leave Brawn/Mercedes a much weaker team as Nick Heidfeld and Nico Rosberg does not seem like a mighty driver line-up, based on previous performances. Neither has won a race and while both are decent drivers neither one has shown any signs of being in the same league as an Alonso, a Hamilton or even a Button. Still, nationalism is a strange thing and it is possible that Mercedes-Benz has got carried away with it own ambitions and thinks that the two are just is what is needed. Perhaps with the right car the two will flourish.
The future of Kimi Raikkonen remains in the balance if the dominos fall as the rumours are now suggesting they will.
In F1 nothing is impossible and sometimes logic goes out of the window.
Ambition is very often illogical.
Rosberg/Heidfeld looks stronger than Button/Barrichello did twelve months ago. I’d be very pleased if Nick found himself in the right place at last and I see no reason to rate him below Button.
If this turns out to be what happens I think it’ll be money rather than nationality which is the deciding factor.
Joe,
two Germans for Mercedes, two Brits at McLaren, Renault in a blue livery and the Italians in red… It’s almost A1GP.
This being said it would be a very stylish grid.
Dear Joe,
If Button leaves for McLaren, is there any chance that Brawn, er…Mercedes, can bring Barrichello back from Williams? He is a very good car developer and a proven race winner. What are your thoughts? Thanks for your blog, best on the internet!
Regards,
Gusz,
I am sure that for a very vast sum of money and a contract with Robert Kubica, FW might let him go. That is not going to happen. Rubens is number one at Williams.
This is an interesting one. We know Jenson is kind on his tyres and from what we’ve seen of Lewis over the years he can bring a good result from a not great car but he is not kind to his tyres by any stretch of the imagination.
They also like different types of car. Lewis likes pointy one but will drive anything, whereas Jenson likes it just right (and probably slightly understeery).
So how the hell do you design a car that is good for both of them? Design it for Jenson and Lewis will be able to live with it. Design it for Lewis and Jenson won’t be able to live with it.
But, you’ve got to design it to look after the tyres with a heavy fuel load. That points the design emphasis in Jenson’s direction.
Who knows what will happen? I don’t. Much as I like Jenson I think Lewis will beat him more than Jenson beats Lewis.
I don’t think Mercedes Brawn (pr0n star) will do well, unless Jenson stays there, then I think they will, because that car will be built for his style of driving. I don’t think either Rosberg or Heidfeld have what it takes to win a championship.
This is shaping up to one of the silliest season in ages. I mean teams coming and going, drivers all over the place… Any the majority of it is happening in the off season instead of during September as per usual. I am rather excited at next week’s new discovery.
So let me get this straight… You have confimed that a British team, has signed a British driver, to team with their other British driver…
But it’s your speculation of who Brawn/Merc may sign that is deemed nationalistic.
WTF???
Jim,
I have not confirmed anything of the sort. I am saying that it is being reported that this is the case. Secondly, a Hamilton-Button line-up would not be about nationalistic zeal but rather about talent. Name the last two World Champions? The combo Rosberg/Heidfeld (if it happens) is hardly in the same league…
You know Joe, it crossed in my mind that this thing could be a way to compensate McLaren for losing Mercedes support. You know, having the number one on the car gets always good publicity!
About the seat on the Merc, evryone is thinking about Kimi Raikonnen. I don’t know if this is a good pretext to say trhat he will do a sabatic in 2010 (because he always said that McLaren was his only good chance) or, now that he knows that a place on the Mercedes is now available, he can put his terms, if they want him for the team in 2010.
One this is for sure: McLaren and Ferrari will have explosive teamates next season!
Surely a 3 year deal with a top team is too good to turn down. Its a very long contract in f1 terms and offers Button a security he wouldn’t find at Mercedes.
It also suggests that McLaren would be willing to back him with a position in the team equal to Hamilton’s, otherwise they would have to deal with a very disgruntled driver for a very long time.
The Times is reporting that Button is putting out rubbish in the media, saying his demand for £8m hasn’t been met, when in fact it has. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/sport/formula_1/article6919293.ece If this is true, why would he accept £6m at McLaren.
I hate all this speculation and different reports depending on the medium. It seems so childish.
I would find it very disappointing if Heidfeld ended up at Brawn instead of McLaren. That would just be silly. I think having a mix of nationalities in a team is a good thing. But I disagree with you about Brawn being a weak team with Rosberg and Heidfeld – maybe Brawn realises any half decent driver could win in a Brawn. Button was outqualified more often than not by Rubens, and I think Rubens would have had a better chance of being champion if Button wasn’t favoured in the team.
if Jenson goes to Mclaren it will end in tears for both Jenson and Ross – unless he gets a rejuvenated Kimi instead – which especially if you are right about Rosbergs contract as regards money – isnt likely
Don’t forget Jenson has a history of making bad or at least questionable business decisions – remember his time at Williams and his departure for Benetton/Renault.
Last time they had Fangio and Moss. By comparison, Rosberg and Heidfeld doesn’t quite cut it really, does it?
Don’t you think they’ll pay the price and hire Raikkonen? The notion that they will make a big splash of returning to F1, but do it without a top-5 driver, nor a GP winner, doesn’t really sound like Mercedes-Benz to me.
And wasn’t Norbert Haug downplaying the chances of Raikkonen going to McLaren a couple of weeks ago? And there was innocent me thinking he was wearing his McLaren party hat when he was saying that! I wonder why naughty Norbert didn’t want Raikkonen to go to McLaren?
If this is true, where will Kimi go now? Does he have a good relationship with Mercedes-Benz so he can land a seat at their now works team?
What about Renault? Could Kimi be the reason Timo hasn’t been confirmed as a Renault driver yet?
if this story about Button going to McLaren is true, will Mecedes sign Kimi instead of Nick? Kimi also has no choices left outside of McLaren and Brawn.
Joe – is it just me or has the article been edited since I first read it? I was sure it said Button had signed a contract, but now it says he “could sign his formal three-year contract [...] within the next few days.”
Is Alan Henry back-tracking, or did his source just give him a kicking for publishing too soon I wonder?
Lynn
When I saw the article in question it said “could”.
So the question is: Will Kimi Raikkonen, who I felt would not go to Brawn GP, becase they weren’t a real “championship winning team” because of the diffuser row, now go because it is backed by Merc?
I know McLaren has gotten more relaxed, due to Ron’s leaving. And Kimi is happy about this.
But Haug really likes Kimi. Just ain’t gonna pay him $25m/year. lol Even Haug does admit they owe him like 2 wdc. lol
It would make all the past Kimi/Mercedes commercials relevant again. lol
Well… So I guess Kimi is going to be a rally superstar.
If Button heads to McLaren, I don’t see why Mercedes wouldn’t wake up and pay much closer to Raikkonen’s demands and then take Rosberg. But if they’re going to pay top dollar why not aim for Schumacher? He never completely ruled out comingback next year, and Mercedes would get their mega-German uber lineup.
Better yet, Mercedes may angle for a mediocre lineup for 2010 to go for Schumacher in 2011. I think his silly run at trying to drive in place of Massa this past season, indicates how hungry he still is. And taking a full year off [before a definite come back] for training would see him as quite a strong driver in 2011. He may not be Schumacher circa 2002 but if the car is decent, he would still run rings around a good deal of whatever field shows up then.
I’m by no means a fan and don’t particularly miss him (except for his ability to show how to properly lead and inspire a team as a driver and effectively tie up championships with the right car – BUtton could learn a few things from him on that last point), but it would be an awesome proposition and isn’t completley farfetched (in the days of lesser driver fitness, safety and healthy living a few drivers were quite successful in good cars around his age).
If they can’t even get where Brawn are based correctly, how can we trust the accuracy of the rest of the article – “The team will continue to be run from its headquarters at Brackley in Oxfordshire.”.
Brackley is in fact in Northamptonshire, just a few miles from Silverstone, as Joe I’m sure you’re aware.
I just read somewhere else that Dr Z is giving Ross the final word on drivers saying “Ross Brawn is the boss of the team and it would not be smart for us to dictate to him anything like a driver decision … We will talk and listen to what he wants to do and typically agree.” So unless Ross chooses a cantaloupe to drive it back in his court. Does Button’s Mercedes (nee Brawn) future look up if that is the case. I happen to think so. Ross knows his attitude and temperament. He knows that Jensen can deliver, given the tools, and he knows they can work together. I sense a resolution on this ordeal by weeks end so as to avoid any continued negative press for the new corporate letter head in Brackley.
Hi Joe,
I think it is a bit logical, though only from a distance –
Button at McLaren is a good decision for both parties. More than likely McLaren will have a faster car (who knows , but that would be my guess) and better team structure than a manufacturer owned /operated team -if history is any guide. For McLaren they have two drivers who are proven winners and world champs. Also they compliment each other on different tracks. Lewis Hamilton seems to be a real gun on street style circuits (I’ll never forget watching him at Monaco last year) , Button excels on smooth flowing corners with his smooth as silk style. McLaren are purely in the business of winning races and world championships. If they keep doing that the road cars for both McLaren and Merc will probably sell well.
Proof in the pudding will be that the new merc team will probably have decided on two middle of the road (I am talking on proven results- I think they are both really talented – but yet to prove themselves as winners) but more importantly for a German manufacturer owned team ——German drivers. !!! The teams that are the most successful over time usually choose drivers on pure race winning ability/runs on board and pay them market rate – not nationality, unless forced to by a manufacturer . This supports my argument that manufacturers sometimes shoot themselves in their foot a bit by owning and controlling F1 teams.
The most successful driver should probably always go for what they think will be the most likely – fastest car and being elite athletes their ego will have to back themselves against the team mate there. McLaren will probably give equal treatment for the first half of the year at least and it up to the drivers to shoot it out- interesting to see the result. Fascinating
If Jenson does go to McLaren, he’ll take Number One with him, won’t he ? So Lewis will officially be Number Two. I wonder how he feels about that …
From Button’s point of view, is the key to this not money, but the fact McLaren is offering a three year deal?
Dear Mink,
I see that Bernie Eccestone agrees with me and thinks that Button and Brawn are just sparring.
JS
Reading Haug’s and Zetshce’s interviews, they quite clearly say that they are not building a all-German team. On the other hand I am sure Merc will and want to have a top team and the drivers then have to be from the top level. Rosberg – Heidfeld pair is a good selection but not quite what I would call “the best line-up”. Haug also says in the last minute of his interview (GPUpdate) hoping to “create a surprise” with the driver selection. So, what could it be, Button and Rosberg ? I wouldn’t call that a surprise. The best free agent in the market is Kimi.
Grabyrdy
I suppose Lewis will try and do what he did in his first year in F1 when he had the no. 2 in his car, which is prove that he is in fact the no. 1. Lewis likes a challenge so no doubt he will relish the challenge to reverse the numbers.
Another thing I am noticing is the excuses being lined up in case Jenson loses to Lewis – apparently it will be because the car is “built around Lewis’s driving style” so Jenson doesn’t have a chance. Astounding!
And those harking back to Turkey 2007 when Lewis had to make 3 pit stops – can we please hark back to more recent times like Turkey this year when Lewis made one pit stop?
Button and Hamilton at McLaren makes me think about the Prost and Senna days.
It could be quite a similar match up?
Two World Champions with differing styles up against one another; Button as ‘the Prost’ and Hamilton as ‘the Senna’, hopefully without the acrimony.
Please note, I am NOT suggesting that JB and LH are on a par with Senna & Prost as drivers. I am just thinking in terms of style and approach.
With this match up, I reckon it could be another good year for the Brits.
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Joe, one thing that intrigues me is that we hear a lot about the vetoes that McLaren have over anything that M-B would like to do, but is that really a one-way street? Do M-B not have any veto powers over who McLaren can sign as drivers?
If Norbert Haug wanted to stop McLaren from signing Raikkonen, could he do so? If he could, surely he would. Not only would he like Raikkonen to drive for M-B, he would also not want Raikkonen to drive against M-B.
To be realistic, if you have the choice between Raikkonen, Button and Heidfeld, which one do you choose? Which is the only one of those three generally regarded as a top-five driver?
To be fair to Button, half way through 2009, maybe the choice could have been Button, because he had been really brilliant up to that point. But as he has been consistently beaten by Barrichello since then, the case for saying he is either better or stronger than Raikkonen is hard to make.
I still think that this will come to be seen as JB’s defining moment – where it all goes wrong. After a strong year in a good car, some amazing drives and a considerable amount of luck JB arrives as WDC. Then it all goes belly-up and if he puts himself alongside LH in a team and car built around LH he will surely not come out on top. I really fear that JB’s career will ultimately be defined by poor contract decisions.
But I so hope I am wrong…
Schumacher to make F1 return in a Mercedes?
Schumacher has apparently quit (can you confirm) his advisory role with Ferrari. Maybe Heidfield is just a cover, and Michael could drive alongside Nico?
Discuss…
Mark Gold
No chance. The Hermann Munster neck bolt is still needed
One thing which could be relevant is the Vettel factor — he probably has more raw pace than Heidfeld and Rosberg combined, and if his performance holds up surely Mercedes would offer him a Schumacher-esque deal — all of Stuttgart’s resources, tens of millions of Euros, unquestioned no. 1 driver status, patsies for team-mates and free gull-wing AMGs for life — when his Red Bull deal ends after 2011.
That being the case, even if Jenson is the heart of the team for 2010 and 2011, he would be very likely to be shunted aside in 2012 — or even earlier, if Mercedes pursues Vettel in Alonso-esque fashion starting right now.
So maybe part of the calculation for Jenson is that a longer-term deal, with a decent chance to get at least half the garage in his corner, would offer him longer-term security than he is likely to get from Mercedes. He has been repeatedly thrown off his stride by contractual hurdles and changes — maybe he’s looking at the chance to be in a secure situation at a top team as a welcome relief.
Can’t see Jenson fitting in very well with the McLaren/Ron/Lewis ultra-corporate, on-message, buttocks-clenched style though. Maybe Jenson will loosen them up a little. Certainly the McLaren proposition would be a little more endearing if it were a little more laid-back.
The problem that I have with that story is that Button is still ‘on the verge’. If he really was going he would have put pen to paper and signed and Alan Henry would have heard that. He hasn’t.
Additionally, I don’t see any logic in Nick Heidfeld going to Mercedes. Nick is in his 30s now and as consistent as he is he is unproven at the front of the grid. If it was going to happen for him then he would have been at McLaren years ago. He wasn’t.
I can’t imagine that a Rosberg/Heidfeld driver line up is what Ross Brawn would have in mind given a choice, and even if Brawn Merc produce a great car there is no guarantee at all that those two will be able to win with it in the face of the competition.
joe,
do you sense raiko going to merc gp if in case button signs up with mclaren.
or really this is end of the road for kimi if the above deal goes through
Travis,
No, I still think Button and Brawn will do a deal.
Joe,
Ed Gorman suggests that Jenson has in fact been offered £8m, and implies “authoritative” information, presumably from within Brawn. This is obviously at odds with Alan Henry’s McLaren sources.
Any thoughts?
Alan Henry has been reporting on F1 since 1970-something. Ed Gorman has been around three or four years. I will leave it up to you to decide.
@Mark Gold
It is only a few weeks since Ferrari confirmed the extension to Schumacher’s contract so I would be gobsmacked if he has quit.
I just don’t understand Button signing for McLaren. Going into a team like McLaren with an established number one is difficult at the best of times but when the driver going in is older than the driver he is trying to depose the odds against success are much higher.
Senna deposed Prost by really pushing and taking risks and Button is not going to outdo Hamilton in those aspects. Hamilton could make Button look second rate and then Button is locked into a three year contract.
Prost deposed Mansell at Ferrari by putting all his efforts into setting his car up to do the work and therefore having to take less out of himself. Button is reknowned as not being particularly good at car set up so you have to wonder where he thinks he is going to get an edge.
I can see what is in it for McLaren. They know Hamilton is as quick as anyone and this year showed he could help the team develop the car. However with the change in rules next season Hamilton may be too hard on his ca early in the season until he adjusts where Button’s smoothness should work in his favour.
I think the only hop Button has is if he has taken his engineers with him. He has a very close relationship with them and he has seen what happened to Alonso when he did not take his own people to McLaren.
Regardless of what happens I can only see one winner if Jenson signs for McLaren and it is not him.
I hope if Buttn does sign for McLaren that Brawn signs Raikkonen for Mercedes as he is far better than any other available driver and who better than Brawn to get the best out of him.
This sentence struck me in Alan Henry’s piece: “It is unlikely either Hamilton, who earns about £12m a year at McLaren, or his father Anthony, who has managed the 2008 world champion since his days as a teenage kart racer, will have been consulted on this beyond the normal deployment of good manners.”
Is it possible that the assumptions everyone has been making about McLaren being Lewis’s team from tip to tail are no longer fully correct?
If the McLaren brains trust decided that it was no longer completely in their interest to be so closely tied to a single driver, then the smoothest way of resolving the situation would clearly be to bring in competition for Lewis who they could plausibly claim had to be treated equally in terms of biasing the base car design etc. A Senna/Prost model rather than a Schumacher/No. 2 model. And if they were to bring in competition for Lewis, a motivated, sponsor-friendly, charming Jenson is probably preferable from their point of view to a surly, only sporadically-motivated, cash-hungry Raikkonen.
If that’s the case, then Jenson may do very well there. One of the nicest things about this season was the mostly gentlemanly spirit in which Jenson and Rubens fought for the title. If Lewis and Jenson really are treated equally and can manage to bring off Senna/Prost without the hatred and intentional shunts, McLaren really will be a world-beater. Assuming, of course, they can get the cars to work right.
Joe
I hope you’re right with your last comment!
Ross is way too smart to settle for a non-race-winning pairing such as Rosberg/Heidfeld. He will retain Jenson, probably with a 2nd driver of Haugs choice, to give himself at least 1/2 a chance of winning the championship again in 2010.
Thank God too, can you imagine John Button and Anthony Hamilton shooting daggers at each other across the McLaren pit garage? A prospect too painful to contemplate watching.
Kimi will sign for McLaren because he has no alternative & it’s inconceivable for him not to get a drive in a top team next year.
With the lack of refueling next year McLaren can’t put Lewis’ teammate on a rubbish strategy to “cover all the bases” which iften befell Heikki everytime he challenged Lewis.
Now it’s all about managing tyres from the start with the same fuel. Something I expect McLaren know Button will do well at….bases covered? 2 drivers 2 styles…1 will be better over a season with new rules…
I’ve not heard how long the contract is that Brawn are offering, but on a simplistic level. £6mx3 from McLaren is a lot more than £8mx1 if it’s a single year contract from Brawn. The McLaren will be there or there abouts in terms of pace and 3 years of racing is 3 years of racing…there are no guarentees that at the end of what I can only presume is a 1 year deal with Brawn/MGP. And there are no guarentees Brawn/MGP will be on the pace as Merc have bought them precisly for the reason that they want a smaller team/lower cost F1.
From what I read, I think it comes down to where does Button want to be? Stay comfy at Brawn, but potentially suffer from a Nico Rosberg looking to prove himself…or go to McLaren for a least 3 years (assuming no Ferrari-esq situ) and take on the No.1 driver in the world right now (in my opinion when we’re talking pure speed).
The only other thing Button should consider about McLaren is that they are very risk averse….this means he can’t have as much fun away from races…maybe even being banned from Triathalons etc…will he be happy with that?
A Finnish F1 journalist Heikki Kulta reports that according to Steve Robertson, negotiations between Räikkönen and McLaren have ended. Kimi won’t be driving in F1 in 2010.
Well, according to finnish reporter Heikki Kulta, who seems to have had a good relationship with the Robertsons (Kimi’s managers) their negotiations with McLaren have failed to produce a result. Meaning Button will be in McLaren next year.
Kimi has said that he is not interested in any other team other then McLaren, so if he stays true to his word, his program for 2010 will be some rallies (with either Solberg’s team or Red Bull Citroen) and Le Mans. Should be fun for him.
This leaves me puzzled about who will fill the second Mercedes (Brawn) seat. Haug said pretty clearly that they want one german driver not two. As they have Rosberg (who has switched from a finnish license to a german one when he graduated to F1) they will most likely not be hiring Heidfeld. It would not be good for their image as an international company, really. Mercedes also says that they want the best available rivers and Haug did mention that they will try to pull a surprise. As far as I am concerned the only drivers that would be a) surprising for the fans to turn up in the Mercedes and b) one of the best drivers there would be Kubica and Kimi. So are Haug and co trying hard to convince Kimi to join (explaining why Button took the leap to McLaren perhaps) or have they pinched Kubica as Renault is pulling a BMW and leaving the sport?
For some reason I do not see either panning out.
I do see Kimi becoming a Red Bull guy though. Rallying and endurance racing in 2010 and Vettel’s teammate in 2011? It could be worse. Nevertheless it will be sad to see him go. Despite the majority of british media’s mostly ill founded disdain towards him, he is an amazing driver. Spa will not be the same in 2010.
Ted who?
…. Joking!
Really looks like Jenson is set for McLaren, Autosport is quite clear on the subjet and (not necessarily related but…) the Finnish paper Turun Sanomat (today 21:46 GMT) has an interview of Steve Robertson confirming that Kimi won’t be in F1 next year.
Get that url into google translate.. broken english but quite clear….
http://www.ts.fi/online/urheilu/89167.html
Some good points raised in that post. Will be back to check for more.
If logic is going out the window.. then if there is an all British Team with McLaren, then why not an all German team with…… Schumacher?!
Oh well, shows how much in know then… <:0(