The Renault F1 team has yet to decide what it is going to do about a second driver in 2011 and that means that there are a lot of elements included in the decision. If not, the decision would already have been made. Team Principal Eric Boullier is a racer and thus his choice will always be to get the best available driver. The question he needs to address is whether Petrov is that man. Vitaly had a pretty decent first year in Formula 1, apart from having had a few too many crashes. He scored the best result of all the new boys with fifth place in Hungary, but Kamui Kobayashi finished the year with more points. There is no doubt that Petrov will do a better job in 2011, because he has a lot more experience. The Russian is, I am told, not very good at communicating with his engineers, in part because of his character and in part because English is not his language of choice. He has also tended to let the pressure get to him on occasion and needs to be toughened up, although that will probably happen if he does get a second chance with the team.
Are there better choices for Boullier? Well, yes, he might be tempted to go for a good solid performer like Nick Heidfeld, who has shown himself to be quite capable of being Robert Kubica’s team-mate. Nick is quick, cheap and available and has a lot of experience. On paper he is probably a better choice than Vitaly.
However, life is never quite that simple. Petrov is a man who is clearly someone with potential as a driver, but he also has immense potential for marketing. Not just for the Renault team, not just for the sport as a whole, but also as a way for team owner Gérard Lopez and his partners to create business opportunities in Russia. Hiring Nick Heidfeld might excite a few folk in Mönchengladbach, but it is not going to land the team the big buck sponsors. This is not something that Boullier would decide. That is above his pay grade. He will say what it is best for the team on the ground. The board of directors will decide what is best for the team overall. The question is really one of who will be on the Renault F1 board and what do they want from F1. The Renault car company seems to be quite keen to extricate itself from the team and remain as an engine supplier only. This makes sense from a financial point of view. Renault won the World Championship with Red Bull Racing, so there really is no need for the Enstone gang. The goal was for the team to be properly funded by Lopez and his chums – and that did not happen in 2010. There is the possibility of a huge sponsorship deal from Group Lotus, to the rumoured tune of $100 million over five years, but if that was going to happen it would probably have happened by now – and Tony Fernandes would not have put in an entry as Team Lotus.
While that was a bit of a shock when the list first came out, it sort of makes sense now. If Group Lotus was willing to pay Fernandes around $60 million to give up on the Lotus name and start a new team, it makes more sense for him to sell them Team Lotus, rather than having them buy Renault and be stuck with the wrong car name. It would be smarter, perhaps, to sell Team Lotus to Group Lotus and then use the money to buy Lopez out of Renault F1… In that way people would get what they want.
So, I guess we need to wait a little longer to see what happens to Group Lotus before we will know the future of Vitaly Petrov…
Going from Tony Fernandes’s Twitter messages, I got the impression he was all set to give up the name, but the response from the fans made him dig his heels in.
As he’s pointed out though, why would Lotus spend millions on Renault, when they’re effectively getting exposure from Team Lotus for free? All I can think of is that like Rover, Lotus are massively increasing motorsport and announcing many new models in the hope of increasing company value, ready for a sale. Having their own F1 team would at a stroke make it more attractive to potential buyers.
For me, the clue to that is in the David Hunt interview, where he says when they brought Lotus, Proton thought they had the F1 as well.
Joe, do you think that Renault are waiting to see whether Sutil retains his seat at Force India before they make a decision on whether or not to retain Petrov?
Petrovs potential for bringing in Russian sponsorship is no doubt a big part of why he got the drive with Renault in the first place – but with the exception of a Vodka brand turning up on the car for the last few races he has completely failed to deliver. Is there any reason to expect that to change in 2011?
It may depend what having the Lada branding on the car is worth to Renault; thats clearly a political deal which may be worth millions to Renault (company), or may be nothing more than a space filler.
Ignoring the money I cant see why Petrov would be worth another season on his in car performances. Acceptable, but nothing more – and there are no shortage of drivers on the fringes of F1 who could do that.
Regardless of where he ends up Petrov surely will find something next year. It was a good first season and showed a lot of potential. At the very least he will be a good No. 2 and with the money he pulls in he’s perfect for any number of teams at the moment… along with Sutil/Medion, Perez/Telmex and Maldonado/PDVSA.
I can understand the hesitation over a crap driver with buckets of cash but a competent one with money is another prospect. One flash paid driver and an above average one with deep pockets is not a hard decision to make surely considering the number of teams currently pointing at the wall.
Joe,
Have you heard a whisper that Fernandes may sell up and buy Renault, or is this speculation? Could make a lot of sense though…
The common consensus is that a US driver would be good for F1, well a Russian driver is probably even better, as Russia is an untapped market for motorsport as a whole, whereas the US has its home grown racing series.
Swapping out Petrov for a driver that may be a little quicker but will provide zero marketing opportunities, is short sighted at the very least.
Without a team there’s no seats available for any drivers, the team has to come first.
What, you mean Hethel buys Hingham, and then Tony F turns around and uses the dosh to buy Enstone? Now I really am confused.
Well, I’m not particularly bothered about who owns it as long as Tony F and Mike Gascoyne remain in charge of a team in Norfolk called Lotus. Dany Bahar can go and build his LMP2 car or rebadge his Indycar Dallara-Cosworth in 2013 to his little heart’s content.
It does seem that Bahar’s ambitions have been scaled back slightly in recentt weeks though — perhaps his purse-strings have been tied a little more tightly for him?
I expect that Group Lotus sees more in buying Renault than in buying Team Lotus.
If it didn’t come down to money, I’d like to see the drive go to Glock – I think he deserves a chance in a decent car.
I think Petrov did a reasonable job this year, his performance in Abu Dhabi was very good and the poor ones earlier in the year could be put down to a lack of experience compounded by the lack of testing available to new drivers. It seems rookies need a season just to get to the same level they would have started at a few years ago, I think its time the FIA looked at relaxing the testing restrictions for new drivers.
I wouldn’t have thought bringing Heidfeld in would be a sensible option, while his performances might be slightly better he still won’t get on terms with Kubica. Any increase in results wouldn’t be big enough to outweigh the loss of marketing opportunuties from losing Petrov. The best driver available in speed terms would in my opinion be Hulkenberg, but I still don’t think he would bring enough points to move Renault up a position in the constructors table, they would need two Kubicas for that!
Interesting idea on the Lotus situation Joe, it seems obvious now, Fernandes buys Renault keeps the chassis name and therefore the historical benefits and Bahar gets his slimy hands on the Team Lotus name and operation. I wonder if Tony would take Jarno and Heikki back to Renault with him?
Marvelous analysis. I guess we all just have to wait and see how it pans out…?
Has Kimi confirmed any rally seat for 2011?
Or is there a chance that Renault and Kimi are talking and this time behind closed doors.
We know that Kimis manager Robertson contacted Renault and that Kimi got angry because of the media.
But I find interesting that it was Robertson who contacted Renault because it shows that there must be some interest from Kimis side.
Hey Joe,
‘It would be smarter, perhaps, to sell Team Lotus to Group Lotus and then use the money to buy Lopez out of Renault F1′
Regarding the above, do you think this could actually happen? Have you heard anything about this or is this just a sensible suggestion from yourself personally?
Regards
No Nick, please, I think he is the most boring driver in a long time. If the best thing we can say about a driver is that he is practical or reliable…
It is time to give a chance to guys like Hulkenberg, di Resta etc, new blood into the sport, or why not, leave Petrov in the second Renault, instead of reverting to the usual suspect. I don’t really understand the need for someone like Nick having already a superclass like Robert. It can be argued that he would bring valuable points… but not much support from fans.
Wow! Is this a Hollywood script for a legal thriller or what? Seems real life happenings in F1 are better than the best from the silver screen! Thanks Joe for bringing this to us.
But I wonder, if this were to happen would Gascoyne also leave with Fernandez or would he stay under his new employers at Team Lotus. The latter seems likely, I guess.
“It would be smarter, perhaps, to sell Team Lotus to Group Lotus and then use the money to buy Lopez out of Renault F1… In that way people would get what they want.”
If I were Danny Behar, at this point I would be thinking: “This is just too much bother. I’m going to start my own space program instead. It will be easier and cheaper and I will get to live on the moon.”
Matt D,
I think he does already
An interesting riddle that Lotus-Lotus-Renault-Genii F1 bussiness…
Let me try too:
I.
I’m not quite sure if Renault the car company really wants to extricate itself from the team to the end. All this Ghosn talking about “changing company’s vision of F1 involvment” is just PR masked cost-cutting. And he’s already achieved that purpose.
Renault S.A. is still a minority shareholder and we don’t know the contract between Genii and Renault.
Maybe Ghosn has got sth to say about team’s shape and future and don’t want to lose his yellow-black colours for nothing. Here he has not only extremely cheap advertisment, but also an marketing item on russian market (very important for Renault) and there are no roses for Renault S.A. in Red Bull marriage (Red Bull fans don’t like them, Adran N. and Chrisitan H. on and on talk about ‘biggest team’s disadventage – engine, … etc.)
So any deal in RF1 can be a hard thing to conduct -
there are three parties to give their signature.
And I cannot interpret and correctly link with Lotus-RF1 matter this last deal beteen 1Malaysia and Renault S.A. (engine supllies). Couldn’t Ghosn stop Fernandes with the name or he didn’t care?
II. Group Lotus in Team Lotus and Fernandes in RF1 Team – that’s make sens, but there are at least two ‘if’:
1. If Lopez wants to be bought out (or forced to do that, e.g. by starving to death)
2. If Group Lotus wants to buy a ‘the best of the rest team’ and start from 0 level. Ok, let’s say +0,75 level. Enstone gang is a few levels (years) higher and closer to become a winning team. Lotus/Proton has a very agressive plan of investing on the luxury/sports cars market for next 4-5 years so they cannot wait for winning like BMW.
So, my fearless predictions:
- there isn’t Group Lotus in F1 next year at all (Indy, Le Mans, GP2 do).
- RF1 keeps Petrov due to bussiness reasons because they don’t have better (bussiness) option.
Oki doki my guru, I will wait
Just wonder when they start shooting each other
green, black, green, black, or maybe yellow ?
Malaysian roulette with soviet gun and french table
[...] Renault F1: Petrov or… « Joe Saward’s Grand Prix Blog. [...]
Hi Joe,
Great post but what happens with the facilities and personnel? Do you foresee the teams swapping places?
Hingham is nowhere near the facility at Enstone.
That’s very astute Joe, good thinking. I reckon you might be on to something here.
If Renault becomes Fernandes’s team do you think Karun Chandok will partner Kubica?
i am not sure that will happen. It makes sense, but that means nothing in F1. I think that Fernandes may have decided to play a long game and wait for Group Lotus To screw it up badly and then he can come in and buy the wreck and do the job properly…
So it will be a long civil war in Malaysia
Marlborough Has Left for the War
Marlbrough s’en va-t-en guerre,
mironton, mironton, mirontaine,
Marlbrough s’en va-t-en guerre,
Ne sait quand reviendra
Nothing is signed and nothing is done. We look at several options. Yes, there have been discussions, but they are much broader than those related to F1. There are good chances for an agreement to take place between Group Lotus and Proton Capital Genii, but we’re not there yet.
There is also another rumor to the effect that Renault wants to sell its shares in the team, but it is false.
Gerard Lopez
rr,
This is a Lopez quote from ESPNF1, yes?
[...] Renault F1: Petrov or… The Renault F1 team has yet to decide what it is going to do about a second driver in 2011 and that means that there [...] [...]
I must admit I would like to see another season from him. For me he has done enough this year to demonstrate his potential as a driver. As Joe describes there is more going on around the team to make the choice process more complicated but I wish him well.
If I were running Group Lotus and I had $100 million to spend on F1, then I would just buy Lotus Racing/Team Lotus and leave Mike G and his team carry on with their jobs. Pretty sure Tony F would accept the deal and walk away quietly.
Just when I thought the Lotus-Lotus story couldn’t be more complicated we have the prospect of Danny Bahar’s Lotus buying Tony Fernandes’s Lotus and Fernades buying Renault. Itwould be interesting to see who moved where if that happen. Would Mike Gascoyne for example stay with the team he has helped build or move to maintain his working relationship with Tony Fernandes? If Gascoyne moves will the technical team that foolowed him to Lotus and other teams in the past follow him to Renault? Clearly Heikki Kovalainen gets on well with Fernandes and Gascoyne and they rate him so would he move too?
You could end up with Bahar buying a team and ending up with little more than an entry and a factory.
How well connected in Fernandes? I’m guessing very well.
Perhaps he heard something on the Malaysian grape vine about Proton/Lotus expanding in the future (after all new cars have long lead times).
So like any good capitalist, he takes a punt on starting a new team called Lotus (knowing full well Lotus’s plans). He can buy the racing team name and F1 licence comparatively cheaply, then look to sell it to the other Lotus for an inflated price down the track. The whole thing costs him play money, gives him some advertising along the way (straight from the Branson copybook) in a glamorous sport.
As an exit strategy, he guesses that in order to save face, some Malaysian businessman or politican would pay over the top to correct the mistake about not buying the F1 team at the same time as buying the car manufacturer. He only needs to show that the team is half decent and it starts to have some value.
Proton already has exposure for its Lotus brand through Fernandez’s Lotus Racing. However, Proton desperately needs exposure for the Proton brand. It makes sense for Proton to buy out Renault and go racing as Proton-Renault. It doesn’t make sense, marketing or otherwise, to leave the Proton brand by the wayside and have Proton challenge Fernandez’s use of the Lotus name. And Proton’s ambitious plans to go racing as Lotus in every category is daft, if not ruinously expensive, if they want to do it right and not become a laughing stock. Proton’s marketing department needs its head examined and then have it roll.
Joe,
D raised a good point in his post regarding Lada branding. A Renault Lada Lotus (sounds like a drunkard talking about a lot of lettuce) would be as awkward as BMW Sauber Ferarri, or in the states, Lotus Dallara Honda. It could be that the team is waiting on the fence to see where they will get the most funding; from the Russians, or the Malaysians. It won’t be both. This could be why Renault F1 have neither confirmed the Lotus deal or Petrov as a driver. They may wait too long and wind up without anything.
I personally think Proton will proceed to buy Renault F1 stake and put forward Lotus name instead of Proton. Why? As part of their brand expansion plan (for Lotus) they need a well established team that can challenge the front-runner, not challenging to become best of new teams..
Lotus under new stewardship (Dany Bahar, former Ferrari guy) is actively and aggresively trying to bring Lotus brand into Ferrari-like (or porsche-like) territory. We can see this from Lotus introduction of newer models recently…
So, I reckon Proton-Renault deal will be concluded before the start of 2011 season and there is a high probability that they will use Lotus name as part of the deal…
As for Lotus Racing, I think they already know about Lotus expansion plan and took the opportunity to grab the Team Lotus name with the intention to sell it back to Group Lotus at premium price. Even Team Lotus is part of Colin Chapman heritage, it is only in F1, and what Group Lotus is doing is more towards promoting the brand worldwide and by that help the selling of its vehicles and nothing to do with F1 heritage… Therefore they can enter F1 even without using Team Lotus…perhaps Lotus Renault F1 will just do..
Joe Saward: yes but in the original version; the French version.
i’d say petrov is a fairly attractive proposition as long as the money keeps coming in. he’s not a complete disaster and now with a years experience should be able to being home a few more points.
heidfeld would still wipe the floor with him in terms of performance but despite the awesome beard does very little to stir russia and clearly on a strategic level for renault / genii that’s pretty important.
i still think petrov to virgin is quite a neat solution but it doesn’t seem to be on the cards.
I think you overestimate Nick’s popularity in Mönchengladbach.
[...] Source: http://joesaward.wordpress.com/2010/12/02/renault-f1-petrov-or/ [...]
It ill indeed be interesting to see if the Russian factor comes into play regarding Petrov.
Meanwhile, although it doesn’t mention F1, this articlesuggests to me that things might become a bit tricky over there!
[...] Source: http://joesaward.wordpress.com/2010/12/02/renault-f1-petrov-or/ [...]
[...] Source: http://joesaward.wordpress.com/2010/12/02/renault-f1-petrov-or/ [...]
[...] Source: http://joesaward.wordpress.com/2010/12/02/renault-f1-petrov-or/ [...]