Time is ticking on and we are awaiting more driver announcements for 2013. Red Bull Racing is done, but beyond that there is plenty of room for manoeuvre, but very little obvious action. Felipe Massa’s future at Ferrari remains uncertain, but the big question for the Italian team is who would be best to drive the second car, scoring lots of points, without destablising Fernando Alonso. The Spaniard says he does not care who he has as a team-mate but his adventures at McLaren suggest that things might go wrong if he is put under pressure and so it is probably better for Ferrari to look for that most rare of all F1 animals, a good number two, or to be more polite perhaps one should say a sensible number one and a half. Mark Webber would have been a very sensible candidate but he still has ambitions and so decided to stay at Red Bull, no doubt pressured by the team to make a quick decision, in order to take him off the market. If one had a free choice then it would obviously be an idea to talk to Lewis Hamilton, but it would be a huge risk to try to pair Alonso and Hamilton again, after the mess that occurred in 2007 at McLaren. In any case, Hamilton’s recent seasons have seen a rather more inconsistent player than was the case earlier in his career. He is still blindingly quick and exciting to watch, but he seems to make more mistakes. Some think that his much-publicised personal stresses and strains have had some influence over his performance, and it is hard to say one way or the other, but on paper he has been less consistent. He might argue that the closeness of the current field is such that one can shoot up and down the order in dramatic fashion with very little change in lap times. In fact, one could argue that most of the drivers have been inconsistent this year.
The problem for Lewis is that he does not have any obvious leverage to make McLaren pay what he thinks he is worth. He cannot move to Red Bull Racing and Ferrari is unlikely. The only real option for a competitive car would be to join Mercedes-Benz or Lotus F1, but who is to say that they will be quick next year? A job at Mercedes would be dependent on Michael Schumacher deciding to retire – and there does not seem to be any sign of that happening just yet. Lotus seems to be very satisfied with the drivers it has, despite the fact that the team has yet to win a race. Either move would involve a leap of faith for Hamilton. And why take the risk when you know that McLaren will have a competitive car. The team has provided him with all of his 19 wins to date. he knows the people well and the team provides him with stability, which may be something that he thinks is valuable.
So the negotiations continue. The most likely outcome remains that Lewis will re-sign for the Woking team. The world economy is troubled and teams have less money to play with, something which drivers may not always understand, so perhaps he will have to compromise on money. One way to solve the problem would be to have performance clauses which pay hefty sums for wins.
Hopefully not one such as was offered to Damon Hill. I think it was a derisory salary plus bonus for wins and huge bonus for championship. More a PR exercise than an offer
Sure I can’t see anything other than Lewis signing for McLaren again, whether its a short term deal or a long term one I don’t know. Perhaps a short term one might be better for all parties at the moment. The reason for that is, as you mention in your article, his inconsistency over the past few years and McLaren have a lot of work to do to try and find the Lewis of 07/08. He’s been a bit better this year but there have still been mistakes like Valencia where he would have probably been better to let Maldonado go given his reputation.
I think Lewis has a lot of work to do to find the Lewis of 07/08.
The same applies to McLaren. I would get rid of Sam Michael and have big Ron playing a much more active role. They can easily sell road cars on the back of wins.
I agree with Dale but both parties have things to sort out.
Joe, what do you think of a possible Kovalainen to Ferrari scenario? Is it absurd to think about?
I don’t see it happening.
Joe – do you think Kovalainen will get a second chance at a major team?
No
Id love to see lewis in a merc.. Joe whats the latest on Mercedes and the rumours of a full pull out or being renamed AMG come to 2013 or 2014?
I hear the man behind the whole F1 project Dieter Zetsche is stepping down in a few months and once he leaves the board of Mercedes will push to leave F1 totally.. they still havent signed up yet which is adds to it
I am a little concerned that Lewis may not be fully concentrating on the remainder of the season. We have seen how badly personal issues affect his performance. He recently had to rush to the UK where his aunt Diane is being treated for cancer. she is a major influence in his life and will be in his mind.
Both Lewis himself and Martin W have reportedly said that Lewis is ready to re-sign, but the issue of the trophies remains, Lewis wants to keep any trophies he wins but of course they traditionally remain at McLaren. Merc are almost counting themselves out by not denying the rumours of their partial withdrawal so basically Lewis has no option but to resign or do a Shumacher, eg go to a formerly great team that has not been winning for a few years.
However my quid is on him staying at McLaren for many years yet.
(Assuming F1 has not collapsed in the meantime)
Sorry typo. should read: no option but to “re-sign” NOT “resign”
I think he has to do the opposite. He should take a leaf from Mark Webber’s book at put in a couple of strong performances to rise his stock amongst the F1 team directors.
It would be far more fun for us spectators if Hamilton moved on. He has, in any case, only had the best of everything in terms of equipment for his entire career. He has always delivered in the most spectacular fashion, until recently. If he’s haggling over money or keeping his silverware I’d just call his bluff if I were McLaren. Lewis has won one world championship by one point, is rich beyond most peoples’ dreams and there’s plenty of hungry young talent out there who would love to take Button on for a pittance of a salary. Lewis in a team with less potential would reinvigorate an already potentially fascinating last year for the V8s.
Or leave F1 like Kimi did and take his chances in the US?
Daft
I love the way you say take Button on, like he is the real reference at Mclaren. Hamilton should indeed move to a team like Williams. Better to finish 6th with effort than finish 5th due to blunders.
Good to have you back Joe.
I think Lewis should jump ship and take share options, small salary and go with Williams. Forget the pastor war. Lewis in a Williams would bring good funding for the team and they have proved they can win. Bearing in mind this is their 1st year with Renault.
I’m sure with Lewis in the team it would push them that extra bit and they have the facilities to build a winning car, other teams use their wind tunnels etc, so they must have some good equipment.
What’s your thought? Maybe Lewis isn’t man enough for such a challenge unlike the Schumi of past who gambled on Ferrari and became a legend.
As lovely as that would be, McLaren has been more consistently decent than Williams recently (except 2009 of course) so would require a huge leap of faith from Lewis, because the cynic in me says this year is a Brawn-style blip in William’s recent history.
Performance bonus’ worked well for Nelson Piquet.
I also remember well the ‘will he won’t he’ season with Senna driving the under-powered McLaren in 1993. He reportedly got £1m per race, after a last minute deal with Ron Dennis, but it wasn’t just the money, he wanted to prove he was faster than Prost in an inferior car (the car he wanted). A sort of bonus incentive!
I know the stupidity of this suggestion given all factors – BUT what’s to say he isn’t considering a NASCAR move? With his better half’s ambitions state side in celeb land; perhaps he is weighing McLaren up against a drive with Hendrick?
I know it’s daft but I remember being told Damon Hill – newly crowned World Champion was to drive for Arrows. Stranger things have happened and maybe just maybe that’s why no other F1 teams are talking about him?
I think your initial assessment is correct.
Hamilton might as well sign a deal for 2013 with McLaren and see what opens up for 2014.
I just can’t see there’s anywhere for him to go. And although’ I believe he’s still a better driver than Kimi, a move to Lotus would put the team under enormous pressure, and not in a good way. Taking Kimi on was a big enough risk, and more. They should tell him to come back when he thinks they’ve got the best car he’s been offered (in practice, never).
Whilst Lewis has achieved some great things at McLaren, some of his bad moments suggest that he does not fit with the team emotionally. I’d apply the same argument to Fernando Alonso too, based on his year at McLaren (in the top car) and his years at Ferrari (in a good but not great car).
In 2007, Lewis was a newcomer to F1 and had a lot invested in McLaren historically; the relationship was not a one way thing. But I reckon that events such as the decision to pit late at China 2007 (when Lewis went off the road entering the pits) must have made him wonder. His gut instinct, I presume, would be to pit earlier but the number crunchers at McLaren told him otherwise. Consequently, there is always always the question “Do they know what they’re talking about?” Somehow, in 2007, McLaren lost the driver’s world championship by a point — not once, but twice.
Ferrari allow Alonso to drive his car and make his own decisions. (That is my observation.) McLaren try to be too clever with race strategy — they are not alone, of course — which can deliver success or mediocrity. Lewis Hamilton is not a clinical driver so he is the wrong fit. Not a really bad fit, but not the best. I reckon that Martin Whitmarsh understands this but I don’t think he is able to change McLaren culture sufficiently to get the best out of Lewis.
My comments are based on observation of human factors. I’d like to see Lewis at New Williams, a reinvented team this season, if only to find out how much the team has changed.
Alonso wanted to pit in Canada towards the end of the race, but the pit wall told him to stay out. He finished 5th.
I think that Joe’s assessment is basically correct, there aren’t any ‘good’ vacancies and he’s pretty comfortable at McLaren.
I also believe that McLaren want to sign him on the same sort of long-term contract that Jenson Button has, so that there are no problems when the ‘transfer window’ opens each season.
I think Lewis must be happy that his new management team are drumming-up all this interest. Until a prime seat elsewhere is available (you’ve already checked the options) I reckon a two year deal with McLaren and discussions with Ferrari/Red Bull in the meantime. But I believe Vettel is more likely to move to Ferrari freeing-up his drive – Vettel/Alonso could work later on, more than Alonso/Hamilton.
I also believe that money is a factor here – £20 million/year has been banded around by the press. And all this trophy nonsense, how did that come about? Ron Dennis went on record recently (a rare thing these days) to discuss drivers’ salaries in the press – now why was that?
Of course, when the new engine formula hierarchy is established drivers will follow the winning cars, no doubt about it.
I think Lewis would like to command a similar salary to a certain F Alonso.
Yes, but none of us really knows the actual figures do we? There’s so much disinformation placed in the press to cultivate (or not) the drivers image – all good fun.
If Lewis balks at the buttoned-down aspects of life at McLaren, then Williams is unlikely to be a very good fit.
Lewis is facing a situation not uncommon among young men who have very high expectations placed on them from an early age — they initially perform exactly as the grown-ups want them to, but as time passes and they develop a personality independent of others’ expectations, the internal pressure builds, and something has to give somewhere.
Maybe Enstone might be the most congenial environment for Lewis? They have experience with managing drivers who want to do their own thing — and Lewis/Kimi would be an interesting partnership. The seat could be freed up by lending Romain Grosjean to Williams for a while (assuming the links between Enstone and Viry are still strong enough to swing that sort of deal).
Welcome back!
So… Ferrari’s 2nd seat. You never mentioned who you think is inline currently?
Perez is aparently out (still the case?), and Webber has re-signed. Hamilton is probably at McLaren. Kimi won’t go back….? That leaves..
Grojean – really?
or Massa – the same guy!
It appears from the commentary out of Maranello is that Ferrari wants a new driver.. just not any of the drivers are good enough for Ferrari…
Do you have any ideas?
The smart play for Lewis is a two year deal; one more for ’13 and stay with McLaren for the first iteration of the ’14 rules. This will give him perspective as to which teams will be competitive under the new rules and THEN go look for another ride, if it doesn’t go his way at McLaren.
The trophy issue is ridiculous… but perhaps it is meaningful symbolically: team vs. individual, etc. I wonder if he’d be OK with McLaren making clone copies for him… or would he insist on having the undetectable original?
If the NASCAR question is for real, well, that would be quite stunning. He’d have to face more legit competition there, just in terms of how many cars-and-drivers have a legit shot at winning there. I’m not saying the caliber of drivers is uniformly high there… but I don’t know how to be sure it is in F1 either.
I think Lewis is back to his best this year after a blip in 2011. I think his only individual mistake was not giving Maldonaldo more room in Valencia. He got beat by Jenson in Australia, but has otherwise been fast every weekend. Take out all the McLaren pitstop errors, and he’d only be a few points off the top.
I think the “Lewis isn’t as good as he used to be” is one of those narratives that gets retrofitted onto events. Last year was dodgy and he made errors at the end of 2010, but still challenged for the title and lead it as late as Spa
In 2007, there were only four cars in the race so its no wonder he was able to be consistent, but he still made errors to lose the title in the end. In 2008, he actually made loads of mistakes, and sneaked the championship against a slower guy in a faster car. 2009 the car was a truck, but he was dynamite once McLaren fixed it.
He’s a devisive figure because he’s a bit of a big shot and can come across a little conceited, but I think with the exception of last season, he has always been fast, consistent but prone to the odd error.
It is true that Lewis has absolutely no bargaining position at all. Yet the thing he should be focussed on is still his actual driving this year. This year is winnable for him so he will also be keen to just get the thing signed and done with and hopefully put an intense focus on the remaining races and nothing else until December.
While Mclaren have leverage through the lack of options, that works both ways. Who could replace him? I think he and Kobayashi have been hurt by the regulations of the last couple more than most which is a shame as they are the most entertaining to watch.
joe, when you argue that Lewis can’t know whether or not Mercedes and Lotus will be quick next year, the same thing applies for McLaren. There are a number of uncertainties about McLarens future, and all of the teams have moved up and down the grid. Just look at Williams right now, or McLaren in the early to mid nineties. You never know whether or not you will be competitive, that is essentially what makes F1 what it is. You could argue that his goal is not to win races, his goal is to win championships, and McLaren hasn’t delivered him with a Championship winning car and, most importantly, team, for most of their relationship. They had a car capable of winning a championship in 2007, 2008 and 2012. Out of those years, in 2007 and 2012, they didn’t have the team to win, even if Lewis was part of the problem in 2007. Some have attributed Lewis inconsistencies with his attempts to outperform his cars. So, to wrap this up, an argument could be made that a leap of faith is exactly what Lewis needs at this moment, because the situation he is in right now clearly doesn’t work out if his goal is to win more than the occasional race here and there. He might wake up one day and realize that he wasted his prime in a team that wasn’t up for the job, because he tried to play it safe.
Look at history.
I don’t think Lewis is the only one in the McLaren team who are “inconsistent”, shall we say. Tactically they’ve been a bit dubious for years- the German GP of 2008 stands out to me- and it’s a bit much to blame Lewis for everything. I think Lewis gets the blame for things that his team screw up, just look at the number of pit stop blunders this year. And the less said about the 2009 tractor the better.
However I think Lewis would be mad to go anywhere else. There’s only Red Bull or Ferrari who will be any good for him; Red Bull don’t have room and I’d be astounded if Alonso would have him (although I think Alonso mostly seems to blame Ron Dennis for much of the problems).
What more to prove in this year McLaren and with this year’s tires? I think he proved a lot of maturity, feel and talent without losing to much aggressiveness … heck Button is no slouch or a rough driver…
He is even happy to settle and bring points if the situation dictates and looks level headed.
I am tempted to believe that the mistakes from recent seasons where do to a lesser car comparable to the competition, compounded with an obsessive desire to win (second is the first of the losers) and big expectations from everybody from a super talented driver with little experience in F1 that started in a winning team with a winning car (beating Alonso that year didn’t helped either).
McLaren has a lot more to prove since this was the worst years when it comes to gratuitous mistakes on top of a so-so car. A bit of luck would have helped to since Alonso had plenty.
I hope he will continue the partnership with McLaren for years to come. I am also sure that all the big F1 stables would love to have him on board if the conjuncture would permit …
He will blatantly sign for McLaren again but the interesting thing will be for how long the contract lasts…
Or, if Lewis wants more cash, he could just bin his useless management, and keep their fee for himself!