It is pretty quiet in F1 circles at the moment apart from a little spat between Luca Montezemolo and Bernie Ecclestone, which does not amount to much. It is not the first time the pair have abused one another publicly and all part of the day-to-day game of F1 politics. Elsewhere there is some holidaying going on, but a number of drives are still be settled, notably the second Force India and the second Caterham. Some are still talking about the second Lotus but there does not seem to be any realistic option. It would be daft for the team to dump Romain Grosjean having invested for a learning year for the youngster. He has proved that he is quick and has shown that he is capable of fighting at the top level but he lost confidence after banned for a race after caused the crash at Spa. Logically, he will have learned from his mistakes and will be a better driver in 2013. If not then would be the moment to drop him. There has been some talk, mainly wishful thinking, that Kamui Kobayashi could be a replacement for Grosjean. He is a known quantity but that did not convince Sauber to keep him in 2013, despite the fact that he was a match for Sergio Perez on most occasions. There is little chance that Bruno Senna would go back to the team after his previous experiences there and none of the other choices are really any better than Grosjean. It seems increasingly likely that Vitaly Petrov will be retained by Caterham as he saved the team $10 million with his efforts in Brazil and has around $12 million in support behind him. There are others with money, but the Russian seems to have more.
Thus Senna’s only real option in F1, unlike he wants to settle for a test driver role again, is to join Force India. It is a tough call to know whether this would be a good move. The team has done well this year, despite dropping a place in the Constructors’ Championship, but there are still some worries about funding because of the financial troubles of the owners. Vijay Mallya says that he is planning to invest in the infrastructure of the team so that it no longer has to rely on the technology of others, notably McLaren, but this is going to take time and a lot of money. For now, however, the McLaren relationship continues and logically the cars should remain competitive enough, although the Woking team might have second thoughts after what happened in Brazil where Nico Hulkenberg knocked Lewis Hamilton out of the race, depriving McLaren of points and costing it around $10 million in prize money. One hopes that Force India is paying McLaren more than the money lost… There is a strategic element in the relationship, of course, with the cynics in F1 suggesting that McLaren wants Force India to beat Mercedes-Benz’s own team and thus convince the management in Germany that running its own operation is not a good idea, which would probably mean reviving the McLaren alliance. At the moment there is no real engine option for the Woking team, as Renault already has its hands full and it is inconceivable that a McLaren would run with Ferrari engines.
Among the other names that have been mentioned for Force India are names such as Jules Bianchi, Kobayashi, Adrian Sutil, Jaime Alguersuari, Sebastien Buemi and anyone with any money. The team says that money is not important but that is slightly daft as a good driver with money is more useful that a good driver without money. Heikki Kovalainen might also be considered as he is at a loose end as well. The choice will be interesting.
The only other seat available is Marussia and that looks like being a battle of the bucks.
I’d love Kobayashi to find a seat – the Nigel Mansell of the east (without the bad bits!).
“At the moment there is no real engine option for the Woking team…”
Is the stuff about Honda’s return with McLaren just idle chatter then?
It seems like it, but with the Japanese one never really knows.
Renault say publicly they’re prepared to support at least one more team, if allowed by the rules. No chance of a Mclaren-Renault? Would have thought it would make very good sense for both parties…
I am sure it has been discussed.
I hope Heikki gets a seat, his interaction with the fans has been great.
Surely Heikki Kovalainen has had enough chances.
Agreed. I’d like to see Bruno Senna stick around.
I agree entirely.
Sounds hard for me to understand why. Yes, he underperformed at McLaren, but there were extenuating circumstances, and he still outperformed Fisichella, Trulli and Petrov. Why wouldn’t he get to stay at least at Caterham?
Did he outperform Petrov?
He did, if we consider the whole season and if we consider external circumstances, like races when he finished behind because he had to back off losing KERS, things like that…
Ok, let’s take into account only races without “things like that” for both drivers. These are Mal, Can, Ger, Hun, Ita, Cor, Abu, Usa, Bra — Pet 5, Kov 4. So, five times Kov finished behind Pet without any “things like that”, and four time Pet behind Kov.
I actually think you are forgetting a few things.
In Germany, Kovalainen was leading Petrov when his front wing broke on its own.
Brazil cannot be taken into account, Kovalainen clearly had the wrong strategy and pitted 5 times when Petrov pitted 3 times. The live timing shows that Heikki was faster : http://en.mclarenf-1.com/index.php?page=chart&gp=883&graf=3&dr1=Heikki%20Kovalainen&dr2=Vitaly%20Petrov#.ULMJjIaTaSo
That would make 4-3 for Kovalainen, but you mustn’t forget that when Kovalainen got technical problems or anything else, he was always ahead of Petrov when it happened (except in Spa when he lost 30 seconds in the pits because of a mechanic’s mistake, but he was already behind). When Petrov had issues, which was scarce, he retired everytime, so it did not affect what people thought.
Unfortunately I think it is going to take some time to convince people that Kovalainen wasn’t outperformed by Petrov this year, as this is what pure statistics might lead to think.
It is irrelevant. Petrov has money. Heikki wants it. End of story.
I’m not denying that. I know Petrov will probably get the seat because he has sponsors. I’m just saying he didn’t outperform Kovalainen in 2012.
I thought the noise from the team was that it wanted to keep Heikki, and that the pay driver noises only kicked in when Marussia pulled ahead of them in the WCC. Am I wrong, or did something (what?) change?
Expect Petrov.
Germany – we don’t know about “broken wing” actually, it was an assumption, Kovalainen was pitted just in case, because of too big tire degradation after second pit. I don’t take in account similar things for Petrov on other races.
Brazil and wrong strategy for Kovalainen in rainy conditions? Lol, driver role in strategy in such condition is much more important, so it is a problem of Kovalainen in first place. As an example, Petrov insisted to change to INT tires on 54 and he think this was a key decision.
I don’t think live timing for comparing drivers on different strategies is right, Kovalainen have used even WET tires!
“he was always ahead of Petrov” – Aus – Petrov was ahead of Kov before steering issue and DNF.
I don’t say that Kovalainen outperformed by Petrov this year, but it is unfair to say that Kovalainen outperformed Petrov this year too. And Caterham now need to choose between equal fast drivers, but one has a sponsors.
Germany: I’m just quoting the Heikki’s Twitter: “Unlucky race today, front wing broke halfway through the race, was going ok until t
hat…” and Mark Smith in the press release: “it was clear he had a problem with the car”.
It is nice from you to say how important the role of the driver is in conditions such as they were in Brazil because Kovalainen did not want this strategy. He complained about that on MTV3. Seriously, he pitted for intermediates on lap 56 and for wets on lap 59, do you think he would have chosen this strategy himself? Caterham just wanted to cover the possibility of more rain. So yes, Kovalainen used wet tyres, but he didn’t want to, and said afterwards it was the wrong strategy. No reason to blame him.
Australia: Petrov was ahead of Kovalainen because Kovalainen lost KERS at the start, and yet managed to stay ahead of Petrov for more than 10 laps. So, this one should go to Kovalainen too.
Seriously, I can sum up all the season if you wish.
AUS: Kovalainen was leading Petrov when he lost KERS. (1-0)
MAL: Petrov beat Kovalainen (1-1)
CHI: Kovalainen was leading Petrov when he lost two laps in the pits (2-1)
BAH: Kovalainen was punctured by Maldonado on lap 1 and filled 30 seconds in the gap to Petrov in the race (3-1)
SPA: Kovalainen beat Petrov (4-1)
MON: Kovalainen was leading Petrov when the latter suffered a technical failure (5-1)
CAN: Kovalainen beat Petrov (6-1)
EUR: Kovalainen was leading Petrov when he lost KERS, and was further hit by Vergne (7-1)
GB: No possible comparison, Petrov didn’t start the race.
GER: Kovalainen was leading Petrov when his front wing broke (8-1)
HUN: Kovalainen beat Petrov (9-1)
BEL: Kovalainen was behind Petrov when he hit an HRT in the pits because of a mechanic’s mistake (9-2)
ITA: Kovalainen beat Petrov (10-2)
SIN: Petrov hit Massa on lap 1. Don’t know if he was responsible, so I’m not taking this one into account.
JAP: Kovalainen beat Petrov (11-2)
KOR: Petrov beat Kovalainen (11-3)
IND: Kovalainen was leading Petrov when he lost KERS (12-3)
ABU: Kovalainen beat Petrov (13-3)
USA: Petrov beat Kovalainen (13-4)
BRA: Kovalainen was faster but got a strategy he did not clearly want… but I know this one is controversial so I’m not taking it into account either.
This makes 13-4 for Kovalainen. This is not representative of course, but everything I said is facts. Tell me if I forgot some issues for Petrov, but I don’t think I did.
Yes, in the last third of the season, Petrov was as good as Kovalainen. Yes, he did much better than Trulli. But I don’t think it is so far-fetched to say that Kovalainen outperformed him.
Broken analysis. You have just substituted quali results with race, because all your “Kovalainen was leading” means only Petrov started behind Kova in these races. This isn’t mean Kova faster during a race.
Ok, let’s use your logic: Petrov always finished ahead Kova when started ahead (and had no issues):
MAL – Pet started ahead, finished ahead
SPA – Pet started ahead but problems with KERS
GB – Pet should start ahead but engine problems, didn’t start
SIN – Pet started ahead but issue with Massa, broken wing
KOR – Pet started ahead, finished ahead
IND – Pet started ahead, finished ahead
USA – Pet started ahead, finished ahead
BRA – Pet started ahead, finished ahead
The same for Kova.
“Tell me if I forgot some issues for Petrov, but I don’t think I did.”
SPA: Kovalainen beat Petrov (4-1) (Pet KERS)
JAP: Kovalainen beat Petrov (11-2) (Pet KERS)
As I said earlier: 5 – 4 for races without issues.
Anyway – without issues Petrov and Kovalainen both finished ahead of partner if started ahead. So there is no sense to say “have an issue when lead” for any of them.
“and filled 30 seconds in the gap to Petrov in the race” – only 20s, and this is a usual thing, you have to know it. Kova had a free way all the race, Petrov had a very long and close fight with RIcciardo. Protecting position ahead RIcciardo – slower times, faster degradation etc. Last stint he had no reason to attack and take a risk, just wants to save a tires.
All wonderful, but utterly irrelevant.
“Broken analysis. You have just substituted quali results with race, because all your “Kovalainen was leading” means only Petrov started behind Kova in these races. This isn’t mean Kova faster during a race.” It also means that at the beginning of each of those races, Kovalainen was faster. You don’t want to judge him when he doesn’t have KERS, do you?
“Ok, let’s use your logic: Petrov always finished ahead Kova when started ahead (and had no issues)” Well, obviously, if you count India where Kovalainen was ahead when he lost KERS (and it was not at the beginning of the race) or Brazil where Kovalainen had a strategy he did not want…
In Spain, the press release doesn’t specify a KERS problem but a KERS map that worked less well than in quali.
I had forgotten the KERS problem in Suzuka, but Petrov was far from Kovalainen when he lost it anyway.
My mistake for Bahrain, he only gained 24 seconds indeed. But your figure was not right either, then. “Last stint he had no reason to attack and take a risk, just wants to save a tires.” This is seriously a bad excuse. Did Kovalainen have more reasons to attack, especially as he had used one more set of tyres?
My apologies Joe, I’m aware this argument is not really nice.
It is strange but I have no “reply” button near last two comments.
Benjamin: “This is seriously a bad excuse. Did Kovalainen have more reasons to attack,”
Ok, last stint was similar for both drivers, 9 laps Kova faster, 8 laps Pet. And Pet lost only 2 sec during this last stint. So whole gap was closed during fight Pet/Ric. So?
“It also means that at the beginning of each of those races, Kovalainen was faster.” – No.
About IND. Again:
1. Kova always finished ahead Pet when started ahead (and Kova had no issues) -> (this is actually how you make scoring above)
2. Petrov always finished ahead Kova when started ahead (and Pet had no issues) -> (this is my answer)
6 car issues Pet – 6 car issues Kov
4 wins Pet – 4 wins Kov (in races without issues for both)
We can talk about race starts of both drivers and Pet was on a dirty sides of a track almost of all races etc. We can try to count only races with Petrov’s new engineer. Too long discussion.
Nothing to do with me. If you guys want to quibble over irrelevant points, feel free to do so.
Ah, forgot about “when Petrov had issues, which was scarce”:
Kovalainen 6 issues (incuding 1 DNF), Petrov 6 issues (incuding 3 DNF!)
Analyzing “Kov was leading..” or “Pet was leading” are wrong. The drivers are on different strategies and one could be ahead of the other after a pit stop. But that car would eventually have to make a pit stop and promote the other car when it does. From what I saw on TV, Valvoline was doing quite well in the first half of the season. In the second half, Petrov has been the better driver of the two.
Petrov brings money, but Kov does not..
Caterham drivers are never on different strategies. Out of twenty races, they had different strategies just once, in Brazil.
As Helmut Marko would say, they have all had enough chances and only Kova has been able to see off his team mate repeatedly which is the most reliable yardstick when you are not in a first rate team. Even so, Petrov got the best race finishes this season and in the summer Kova seemed a little too publiclyeager to leave the team which may be what goes against him now (money decisions not withstanding).
Di Resta is in the same basket and has been beaten by Hulkenberg and Sutil so I have a funny feeing that Mallya will do one of his last minute driver changes once all the other seats are taken (a craft learnt from the old Arrows team) and bring in either Senna, Sutil or similar.
Kobayashi could get a Toyoya or Rebellion drive in the WEC which might improve his reputation and also give him a better CV should he make an F1 comeback in 2014.
Kovalainen never publicly said he wanted to leave. He always said he was 100% focused on his future with the team.
In F1 hardly anyone ever says anything clearly in public except for Joe, Hamilton via his Twitter account and Bernie (and he usually does the opposite of what he says). In the summer, when the speculation about seats at Mercedes and McLaren started, what Kova did say was that HE would take a decision on his future depending on the performance of the car improving as it was not where he expected it to be or words to that extent. A few weeks later, he said that HE would talk to Tony Fernandes before any other team and after that it went rather quiet apart from talking about not paying to drive and always getting the maximum out of the car which is the least you would expect from a paid driver.
Petrov seems to have played the game better by being very pessimistic about his chances, hard to find sponsors, etc etc but was more upbeat about the team´s efforts. Tony Fernandes also started saying nice things about him at the same time and by coincidence, Petrov started delivering better race results than Kova and even if he was being hammered in quaifying by Kova and the Marussias, it is race results that people remember, especially the FIA accountants.
If Petrov gets the seat ahead of Kova or Senna, it might be because he has outplayed them politically rather than on sporting level as they all seem to have about the same level of performance.
It would make sense to keep one of the existing drivers on for some continuity and to support Pic who is still an unknown quantity.
Senna brings money and did pretty well at Williams, hope gets a seat at Force India.
Maldonado got 50% more points despite having endless penalties. Senna’s hopeless.
I think that is ill-considered and harsh.
He only did well at the end of the season – contracts time. He’s seemingly a nice fellow but not a patch on his uncle let’s face it. Look at the other candidates, and apart the money, I can’t see why anyone should choose him over, say, Kobayashi or Adrian Sutil.
I agree. Senna did a good job this year considering he lost FP1 on a regular basis. It seems Williams just don’t learn lessons these days, Alex Wurz was super quick in Friday practice sessions but when employed full time it wasn’t the same story. Senna was a regular point scorer which was needes with Pastor’s crash & burn approach.
Joe,
Autosport reported that Senna tested a Mercedes DTM car at Estoril. Is this a genuine backup plan, negotiating ploy or an evaluation by Force India-Mercedes? Your insight is always appreciated.
Yes it is a backup plan but he is not keen. It was an AMG Mercedes.
Joe, previously it was thought Vitaly had trouble with sponsors. Had he found money recently?
What is thought and what is reality are often different.
If you say so. Painful, though, for a Lotus/Renault fan to see that kid stay with the team, which imo is the wrong place for him. He could do more damage than good. And that’s not foreseeing tomorrow, that’s the feeling I get from this boy. Only Romain Grosjean could convince me that I’m wrong.
Joe do you not find it suprising that Kobayashi has not had Japanese industry offering support? Could it be money is tight because of the tsunami/earthquake?
I have no idea why the Japanese are not investing in Kobayashi. Perhaps it is because he did what was necessary to make it to F1 and spent too much time in Europe and not enough time at home. Catch 22.
Just a thought on that – a good choice for Honda sponsoring some ‘home grown’ talent if they came back? I suppose he’s already trying that route though.
Kamui shares with Kimi Kaikkonen a distaste for sponsorship song and dance, which doesn’t help in a search for personal sponsors — to which you can probably add the fact that many Japanese companies are fairly inward-looking, especially these days, and of the ones that can afford it, there likely aren’t many that feel that the kind of exposure F1 brings would be of benefit. (Although one would think that Rakuten or Fast Retailing (owner of UNIQLO) would jump at the chance.)
Kamui is very popular personally in Japan (his fans wouldn’t have pledged $2 million in support to him otherwise), but the corporate world doesn’t seem to want to know…
I thought Max Chilton was inked into the second Marussia seat, filling his fathers c£40 million investment in the team?
I do not believe that has happened.
Maybe that’s because Aon isn’t interested in sticking its logo on a Russian team that’s at the back of the pack (?).
Mclaren/Ferrari that has a very strange ring to it…I’m guessing there is going to be a lot of unhappy british fans if that end’s up happening
So PURE is out of it for good? or is there any chance they will fins funding and a customer or two in time to finish their engine for 2014?
“pretty quiet”? …. wont the World Motorsport Council will generate quite a lot of news?
Senna complained about missing Friday practice with Williams, blaming it for his struggles. If he landed at Force India, who tend to run a tester on Fridays, he could well face the same problem.
As to Force India, is Di Resta confirmed? I’ve gained an impression from somewhere his seat is not safe.
Joe, Lotus also have Jerome “food of the gods”…. They could give him a go. Any thoughts?
If they feel he can’t do the job, why keep him on??
I don’t think he is even a candidate.
Think it’d be more of a shame to lose Kobayashi than Senna or Kovalainen
I would like to see Senna´s money at Marussia . After the first 4 races they can replace him or Glock (whoever is slower) with Petrov and his money. Chilton could pay for a Friday test seat to prepare for 2014.
Kobayashi to Force India and Kova to stay at Caterham would keep everyone employed.
I do, however, think that both Di Resta and Glock will be suffering a rather paranoid off season as both were outperformed by their team mates and are paid drivers who could well be replaced à la Liuzzi by a mor affluent alternative.
Senna’s money, if one can use such a term, doe snot just go wherever he wants it to go. The choice of teams is important as, for example, some sponsors may not want to be associated with Vijay Mallya, or might consider the team to be not of a sufficient level of prestige to warrant an involvement. These things are much more subtle than you would imagine.
Yes, I imagine it would be complicated persuading sponsors to continue investing when the only alternative is a step down from Williams which in itself was a big step down from Lotus at the time. Having said that, they supported him at HRT where there were no guarantees of success or even of starting the season.
In Bruno´s case, something is amiss in the balance of performance / budget / politics / reputation in his package as he has now been replaced at three teams.
Liuzzi with little or no sponsors but with support from Kolles at HRT
Grosjean with help from a French oil company and support from Boullier at Lotus
Bottas with little or no sponsors but support from Wolff at Williams….
He never really had his place in any of those teams (issues with Kolles, joining Lotus in mid season when the car stopped working and Williams at the last minute and seemingly as a stopgap for Bottas).
It would be nice to see how he fares on equal terms in a stable environment (rule out Force India!) but perhaps his time has come already.
Any word on GP2 champ Valsecchi?
None at all.
While the talented drivers being discussed here are left standing as the music stops, Nico Rosberg continues his remarkably anonymous career at Mercedes, enjoying the security of a long-term, high-dollar deal. Rosberg’s time in Formula One strikes me as even less enthralling than Nick Heidfeld’s. At least with Heidfeld you could admire his consistency. Other than that one win at China – a long time in coming and surely attributable to the tire lottery in the early part of the season – the only glimmer of serious talent I remember seeing from Rosberg was in Singapore a few years back, and in that case he blew a podium for Williams by transgressing the pit-exit markers and incurring a drive-through. (Patrick Head no doubt had a few choice words to say about that.) I also think Rosberg has a tendency to be rather pushy on track, but his reputation enjoys a mysterious, Teflon-like protection.
Anyway, Rosberg’s life is about to get more interesting, isn’t it? We’re finally going to see how good he really is – or isn’t.
Beating a seven times world champion with the same machinery three years in a row isn´t consistent?
I agree, it will fun to see how he and Hamilton match up. Strikes me people said the same about Button as Rosberg a few years ago and look what happened so maybe it is Hamilton who will have a shock!
For me, this is the most interesting aspect of the driver moves we know about to date – finally we will get a read on Rosberg’s speed measured against the known quantity of Hamilton. Schuey was hard to use as a yard stick as none of us knew just how much his speed had declined during his sojourn.
Agree with your thoughts on Rosberg’s anonymous career. You could perhaps suggest that Ross didn’t want Michael’s confidence affected too much during his comeback by having too strong a partner? Michael has always managed his driving partner and its not unthinkable that he had a chat to Ross about it.
Joe you think Senna has a good chance of a drive in F1 if Petrov now seems set to stay at Caterham?
I hope so. He deserves to be in F1
What do you think about Petrov as a driver?
He has natural talent.
Thank’s!
Also he doesn´t crash or make as many mistakes as before and his attitude towards his team and life in general seems to have improved since the Lotus period. Perhaps the risk of losing his seat three seasons in a row has had a positive effect on him.
Of all the pay drivers playing musical chairs, he is my bet to ensure his drive for next season.
Fernandes can thank him for saving 10th place and also for not spending half the season making excuses about his power steering or how missing practice sessions affects his performance.
If the Russian GP really does happen, Bernie will want him on the grid too.
While you expect Petrov to stay at Caterham (although he and his manager have given constant impressions of being without funds) you don’t go into the 2nd seat which appears to be for sale too, given Heikki’s downbeat reaction in Brazil.
The second seat is already announced. Charles Pic.
Hi Joe,
I can’t remember whether I read it here or elsewhere, but I thought Force India’s technical partnership with McLaren was up for renewal at the end of this year. Does that mean its been renewed? Or have I got my facts wrong somewhere?
I also agree that Lotus should keep Grosjean as he has to be considered a longer-term investment.
I am told it has been renewed for a year
Joe, what about Senna and Marussia? Senna has a bit of backing ergo has the cash and the experience Marussia need. Senna needs to stay in F1 and I wouldn’t have thought Marussia to have been too bad an option if he was considering Caterham? The Marussia’s have shown to be as good as, if not better than the Caterham’s on occasion. Why aren’t Marussia and Senna talking?
Marussia would do much better to take Senna and his small portfolio to work with and push Glock than to take another new comer with more cash and end up last in the constructors again next year, surely?
Joe, dou u have contacts next to Force India? Everyone is saying that Senna is in good position to get Force India’s seat. Where is he now? Next to Silverstone? Keep us in touch!
He has no other real option
Hi Joe,,,, u wrote in one of your posts that Sutil might have a problem in Canada and USA….any more news on that..can those problems be solved..
No news. Rules are rules.
The footballer Joey Barton wasn’t allowed into the US for Newcastle’s pre-season tour before the start of last season because of a similar conviction.
did Senna leave Lotus on bad terms that they wouldn’t consider him to come back?
I am not sure he would be on their list for Santa
I’m sorry I’m pressing this, but there was a rumor he’s in talks with them (i.e. Senna with Lotus)
There are lots of rumours in F1. Most of them come from people who know nothing about the sport. It depends on the source.