I sense that the Monza weekend will see a number of driver announcements, now that Felipe Massa has announced his retirement. Williams is expected to confirm a new deal for Valtteri Bottas, which will probably run for two seasons, to get him to the end of 2018, when a lot of big drives will be up for grabs. But what will Williams do to replace Massa? One suggestion is that the team might slot in Felipe Nasr, but it is arguable whether this would be a step forward. Nasr is certainly a decent driver, he’s presentable and brings some support from Brazil, but the country’s economy is not great right now and Nasr has yet to show signs that he is a future top-line star. Williams is believed to have been quite keen on the idea of Sergio Perez, who has talent and sponsorship behind him. But the indications are that he will either stay with Force India, or he will gamble on getting into a factory team with a deal with Renault. The Enstone team may not be very competitive at the moment, but there is likely to be an improvement with both chassis and engine as the team builds itself up in the next couple of years. Getting into such a position would be a better long-term move than staying on with Force India, although in the short-term, the Silverstone team might seem a better idea. It is worth noting how important Mexico is to Renault as well. And remember that Enstone was a championship-winning team in two different generations, so it should not be under-estimated. Of course, Williams also used to be a great winning force, but without an engine partner of its own and having to pay for customer engines, the team has not been the force it once was, except for one extraordinary day in 2012 when Pastor Maldonado won an incredible victory. The team has been quite competitive since it took Mercedes engines in 2014, but it seems to have stagnated somewhat since then. In part this may be due to funding. Having Perez aboard would have been a good option for the team, but it does not seem that will happen. And the logic of a romantic swan song for Jenson Button is not really that logical. It is clear that the team would like to have more money, in order to improve performance and as Jenson is not going to bring money, and sponsorship is very hard to find these days, improvement is more likely with another driver, even if they are less talented than Button. The other question is whether Button is interested in such a deal. I sense that he is not that interested. So who then might replace Massa at Williams? Financially-speaking, the best move would probably be to sign up Lance Stroll, the Canadian who is doing very well in European Formula 3 and is already a Williams development driver. Money is really not an issue with Stroll because his father has a ton (or two) of the stuff, and appears to be willing to part with it. The key question is whether Williams considers Stroll to be sufficient a prospect to take that big leap of faith.
Talented youngsters without cash are still coming through the ranks, thanks to companies like Red Bull, Mercedes and Renault and that has to be a good thing for the sport. The sport needs new heroes (and villains) to reinvigorate itself and create new interest. Ultimately, all the teams are bound to look to younger men, if only because they are more feisty and cheaper than the established stars. I sense that McLaren is going to go with Stoffel Vandoorne next year (there really isn’t a choice if the team wants to keep hold of the highly promising youngster). This means that Jenson Button will not be able to stay there as a race driver. The other choices are limited, but perhaps JB will glide gracefully into other work, as befits a World Champion.
If Perez does take off to Renault, Force India would need more support from somewhere, but one can imagine that Mercedes would be willing to help and Pascal Wehrlein would probably be the best fit, as he continues his development as a young Mercedes driver. That would create a place at Manor.
And if Perez does go to Renault – who goes – Mag or Palmer?
Palmer I think.
He’s had a shot but he’s not a “stella” standout driver.
Kevin has already one season of experience and Renault will need that in the seasons to come.
Though Renault could fire both drivers and field Ocon & Perez.
Gonna be interesting to see…..
Hear what you’re saying. Guess Kevin lost his mojo pretty smartly during his down time, as I feel Palmer has not fared too badly against him?
Joe
Do you see any path for Rossi getting back into an F1 seat?
Thanks!
I believe Rossi has a path but feels his stork is worth more in the US then in the UK, plus ate winning the Indy 500 his income would be greatly reduced driving in F1, Manor have a seat for him and offered I believe it for next season and he turned it down ?
( Joe do you know if this true ? )
I can’t see Rossi back in F1 now, unless he gets a seat at Haas which in turn MIGHT open a door to Ferrari….as Grosjean believes….insert rolling eyes. In my opinion Grosjean will never be in a Ferrari ! I think it will be either Bottas 2018 or Sainz…. Ves is locked in tight. As is Riccardo, As is Hamilton & Rosberg. I also believe that If McLaren’s car is a piece of junk next season, then Alonso will retire at the end of 2017 opening up another seat….
There are so many variables dependent on McLaren, Williams, Ferrari, Renault, Toro Rosso, ( Kyvatt to be fired end of this season ! ).
We need more Brazilian racing drivers in Formula One.
They have a natural rhythm ideally suited to the point and squirt circuits…remembering Monaco 1988
Could Button go to Force India?
I doubt it. Anyway, the question is would he want to. Williams is probably the only place he would seriously consider and even then he knows he’ll be an average top 10 runner lucky to stand on the podium again. Basically just running the clock down.
Complete guesstimate now but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him leave F1 and reappear in a factory Toyota in the WEC. He’s shown interest in WEC/Le Mans in the past and has good friends there and strong Japanese connections. He’s still got plenty left in the tank and it would be excellent star power for Toyota. He could do a lot worse.
Don’t underestimate just how difficult the WEC is with multiple instant decisions overtaking of the slower LMP2 and GTE cars per lap – It’s a hell of a lot more diving into decreasing gaps than F1. (Mark Webber has previous experience so he knew exactly what he was getting into)
So chance Renault is interested in signing a former world champion with experience building up teams and coping with regulation changes?
To me the Renault factory drive is the best prospect out there, not the Williams.
Surely they can afford Jenson alongside a young gun to learn from him be it K Mag or Ocon
Great point !
But
Can you really see JB going to another team and having to go through another season or two developing another car with no chance of podiums ?
That’s not JB’s wish, want, need.
As he said himself recently, he wants to be in a car next season that gives him a chance of podiums and even race wins, therefore he believes that McLaren give him the best chance of that. Plus he’s been very very luke warm over the whole Williams suggestion.
Thank you for that view – Who would you see next to Perez at Renault?
Ocon/Mag
Though depends on wether Renault take the same path with Ocon as Mercedes have with Pascal,
Manor for one season then into a midfield team ( Force India, Toro Rosso, Haas ) before a move into the big boys toy.
Mercedes are seeing if their investment is going to pay off before giving him the holy grail so to speak ( A WC winning car ).
So if Renault keep Ocon at Manor, I think Kevin will stay as a development driver for another season, he’s already had one season soon to be two and he has experience….Ocon doesn’t as of yet. Hence Mercedes path.
I was rather hoping that JB would beat Barrichello’s record of grand prix starts.
I’m a big big JB fan and would love him to stay for another season.
Here’s hoping !
With my fingers & eyes &. toes and anything else that can be crossed ! Lol
Essential reading and ( again , as per usual )
by far the most thought through drivermarket revieuw . Would love to read a similair piece on all of the teams and possible too on times after Alo Ham Vet Ros Rai But etc ; Who do you reckon will going to be the F1 stars of the future ?
I hope Williams doesn’t have to settle for a lesser driver with a greater check. Not the best way to get ahead in my book. I would personally rather see Massa stay than Button return. Thinking of Button and Williams always makes me wonder how Bruno Junquiera would have faired in F1 if Frank would have chosen him in 2000. I always suspected he would have been faster. I saw him race several times in a Champcar and his talent really was obvious. Any other thoughts?
I think Frank should have put Montoya in the Williams 1 year earlier as well. He stagnated for that extra year over in the US and came to F1 with a little less fire in his belly. The knock on would have been JB not having a drive that year of course. Oh well, spilt milk….
It depends. If Williams wants to win – they will go for a top line driver. Perhaps, JB, Checo, or KImi? If Williams just wants to survive it will be Nasr or Stoll.
Personally, I would go for Jenson with understanding he is to take the team up in the operational area – like David Coulthard did for Red Bull.
As far as Renault is concerned I would release Mags……
Is it still possible for Stroll to finish lower than 3rd in the F3 championship? As unlikely a scenario as that may be, should it transpire he wouldn’t qualify for a super license.
I’m sure that even in their dimmest moments (when aren’t they in the middle of one?) the FIA can recognise a Buck or a Euro when they glimpse one…..
Hello Joe.
Great blog !
Ref your comments over JB & Perez,
I believe & feel that Stoffel will NOT be in that McLaren but rather JB, why ?
A) British Champion in a British team.
Early reports are that Honda has pretty much nailed next years engine and we know McLarens expertise in producing a good chassis point in case 2016 though Hondas transition has been hard on the team & drivers the chassis has been voted I believe the best in F1 this season.
With that kind of reciepe your going to want a seasoned driver who has experience in driving 2017 regulation cars, and has experience with the larger tyre. JB has that, he’s smooth, consistent and still has a deep passion for F1, it is also believed that the board want JB in that seat as does Alonso.
The only objection is Ron….he wants Stoffel. ( He didn’t even want JB for this season !!! ).
Personally though Stoffel has had one race weakened that still doesn’t prove his worth, surely it would be better to place Stoffel in the Force India or the Williams and let him get to grips with the new cars, tracks, and a full season in F1 ready for the 2018 season.
JB would be a bigger draw to sponsors as a WC then Stoffel a unproven and a unknown…..point incase,
Mercedes with Pascal.
Renault with Ocon.
Toro Rosso with Vet.
Toro Rosso with Vet.
To me it makes no sense flipping JB for Stoffel, your going to need drivers that can communicate, give good feed back, push the car, and get the job done within the limitations of the car.
At the risk of repeating myself….JB can do that and more.
I agree Perez will go to Renault. It’s a better prospect long term. And gives him security and a real possible chance of podiums and maybe even a WC come 2018-2019….. Though I did see a interview with the team Principle of Renault F1 and he said that they have a 5-10 year plan in place to get back to winning WC’s again. From hiring drivers to team personal to sponsors.
Let’s see what happens
Don’t hold your breath.
Rather than an average driver with money a better alternative for Williams would be to try and get either Wehrlein or Ocon in return for a discounted engine deal. That would give them some decent talent, help the bottom line and improve the relationship with Mercedes.
That sounds like a good idea 🙂
I’ll bet you a Baguete and a glass of Bubbly Stroll will fill Massa’ seat
I’m not betting against that.
I can see Pascal Wehrlein in Wiliams Mercedes next year, alonside with Bottas…l
You may not be seeing things so clearly.
As a Williams fanboy I’d like to see the HUlk get the drive, sadly it won’t happen but I think he’d be the best fit.
JB for Top Gear perhaps?
there’s also alex lynn, the development driver of williams ….but he’s not performing that well in the GP2. (vs Gasly, the redbull junior protege)
“He’s not performing that well in GP2” probably gives you the answer you are looking for
“…and sponsorship is very hard to find these days,” Not trying to put words in your mouth Joe (perish the thought!), but that would indicate to me that F1 is not perceived as good value for money in the world of commerce. Declining TV audiences and track attendance seem to be the cause.
The audiences are declining in all sports. F1 is holding up remarkably well.
Where there not rumours recently of a return for Maldonado to F1, maybe to Force India or Williams if he has got himself some serious backing, or Kvyat with Russian backing? If Gasly takes his seat at Torro Rosso?
I think it inevitable that Lance Stroll will end up in F1 and with Williams.
Talent ( sufficient) and Daddy’s backing ( stupendous) will see to that.
It is a matter of this year or next. William’s mind might just be made up by the massive cash infusion Stroll would bring. They did dump Hulkenburg for Maldonado a few seasons back, swayed by money.
If they think Stroll not yet ready, maybe they’ll sign Nasr as a one year only stopgap.
I
What is the chance that Honda will power another team next to McLaren next year? For instance Williams or Force India? And let Vandoorne drive for that customer team? That would give JB a chance to end his career at McLaren and Stoffer would be offered a race drive in a Honda powered car. Would this be realistic?
Zero
I’d like to see Jenson remain with McLaren in an ambassador type role, using his experience behind the scenes, bringing in sponsorship while competing in his triathalons. A bit of commentary too.
Any chance they might go with di Resta?
None