The post-Rosberg ruminations continue at Mercedes AMG Petronas, with no obvious solution as of now. The problem has not really changed and some of the rumouring we have seen is really not related to what has been going on.
Mercedes is in a bit of a fix thanks to Nico deciding to call it quits. They want two experienced drivers, suitably balanced for two reasons: the first is that it maximises the points and gives them experienced men to tweak the new spec 2017 cars. The second is more esoteric, but important nonetheless. The team has managed to dominate in F1 to a huge extent, but has avoided too much criticism because its two drivers have been fighting, thus providing F1 with great storylines and lots of interest. If there is one dominant driver and one rookie this dynamic will change and one man – Lewis Hamilton – will likely win everything, if the team’s domination continues (which is likely, but cannot be assumed). If that happens, you can be sure that politics will intervene and the rival teams will once again try to get the rules changed, on the basis that they cannot catch up. This is not sporting but it is a pragmatic explanation of what happens in F1. It’s a bit like having a big sister who is a bad loser and tries to kick over the board…
The problem for Mercedes is that it all happened so late in the day that there were no real options left to achieve the right balance. Hiring retiring or retired drivers won’t help because they will be unlikely to be able to compete with a hungry Hamilton and running has-beens is a lesson the team learned before Lewis joined the team.
On top of this, Mercedes wants to be seen to be an ethical company and not deal with the problem in the way the F1 piranhas of old used to operate, ripping up contracts and enticing people away from their roles. It is not against the law to try to poach employees of rival firms, but it needs to be done carefully to avoid legal repercussions, so direct negotiation is the best way. “Hello Claire, we have a problem”…
Valtteri Bottas would be mad if he did not want to join Hamilton at Mercedes, but while Williams might not want him to go, there is a point at which the financial incentives become impossible to refuse, unless there are other contracts that make such a transfer impossible. These can also be negotiated away, but that rather depends on who you are dealing with. There are various rumours kicking around that Williams has two problems letting Bottas go: the first is with sponsor Martini, which needs at least one the drivers to be at an age where they appeal to the target market: with the 35-year-old Felipe Massa and the 27-year-old Bottas worked, it will be less easy with an 18-year-old Lance Stroll and a 22-year-old Pascal Wehrlein. This might be solved by Williams picking up Felipe Nasr (an old test driver) who is 24, but even he is a bit young.
The other possible problem is the possibility that Stroll has a contract which stipulates Bottas, or a driver of similar reputation and experience. That may sound an odd idea for a youngster, but remember that he is there in part because of a truckload of money and as we know he who pays the piper calls the tune. Stroll would want such a clause for two reasons: to benefit from the experience of the older driver, and to avoid being beaten by a younger less established driver. Right now, Stroll is expected to be beaten by Bottas, so expectations are low, which means that if he does beat Valtteri on occasion he will be seen as a rising star…
It is difficult to solve these two problems with money and so Mercedes might have to agree to fund an experienced driver to replace Bottas. But then it has the same problem again…
Williams will not do anything unless the deal is right, which may explain why there are stories of Paddy Lowe moving to Williams. He cannot get the role/salary he wants at Mercedes, so it might be better for all concerned if he was allowed to join Williams, which looks like it would benefit from some new technical oomph. Contrary to rumours, Lowe is contracted to Mercedes next year so to let him go to Williams would be a big bonus to sweeten the deal to get Bottas.
The alternative, of course, is to go with Wehrlein and hope that he will rise to the task. This is a risk and why Toto Wolff has been saying that Mercedes needs to be adventurous in its decision making. Wehrlein has been the primary Mercedes Young Driver for a while and not promoting him would send out the wrong messages.
And then, on top of all of this, we must take into account the likelihood that not everyone at Mercedes will agree with the choice, so there is a level of politics as well: do the Germans want a German? And so on…
joeblogsf1 
I read somewhere that Carlos Sainz might be a possibility and that seems like it might be a good solution for Mercedes, or is that just more hot air Joe?
Sainz wasn’t intimidated by Verstappen and they were pretty close at Torro Rosso, but he seems like a mature (and likeable) character who would get along with the team as well as be reasonable competition for Hamilton. But would Red Bull talk to Mercedes and what would it say about the respective young driver programmes if Mercedes turned to Sainz?
I’ll believe it when it happens
Anything can happen in f1.
And it usually does…
He would be a solid choice, but I can’t see Red Bull wanting to help Mercedes in any way.
[link removed] said that a possibility for Lowe to join Williams and be compensated for a likely lower salary would be to give him a share in the company. Do you think that’s possible?
It would surprise me, but shares are available, so it might be possible, but I don’t believe the Williams Family will dip below 50 percent. It would not be wise
Thanks!
Executives are routinely issued new shares, which could see Paddy compensated and the family (eg Claire) receive sufficient options to maintain control.
Joe,
Why is Grosjean not in the thought process of Merc, I was under the impression he had a big team clause, is it because of his prior kamikaze style putting people off in Stuttgart?
I guess the clause is Ferrari-specific
Perhaps such clauses have to be exercised by a set date, so that the team about to lose its driver isn’t left exactly where Mercedes are now.
Whoever they pick I don’t see anyone in the list who could be a match or even a challenge for Lewis, so let’s hope Red Bull and Ferrari can be title contenders or it will be a boring season. Imagine 88 without Prost or Senna at McLaren?
Actually I think 93 is closer to the mark when Prost was parachuted into Mansell’s championship winning car after our Nige fell out with team Willy and left for Indycar. Personally, although Prost duly delivered the championship (no surprise there!) but I still don’t think he was as fast as Mansell would have been.
I think Mansell left after Prost was signed, but I agree he wouldn’t have been quicker than Prost that year.
How about Jenson, if he’s willing to do another year? He looks perfectly placed.
Look at the results in 2016
As an ex-world champion surely Button would fit? He kept Lewis more than honest once before and his poor results this season came on the back of an ill timed retirement announcement. I reckon JB would still be fast enough to challenge in that car.
Big fan of JB but he clearly doesn’t want F1 anymore and that has shown at back end of the 2016 season with his lacklustre performances.
Definitely no chance of Sainz?
A heck of a lot of reliability problems if you actually do look at 2016- on Jenson’s side of the garage… way more bad luck than Alonso had.
Didn’t compare Jenson’s mechanical issues compared to Alonso’s, but having seen, viewed at its most generous, problems mainly hitting one side of the Mercedes’ garage as well, Jenson might view a Merc’ seat as not a guaranteed chance of success, but only 50/50, not even counting the aero-specialising Red Bulls.
Surely there is a difference in tugging around in the lower midfield with no sign of things getting better, against a car which will almost certainly be the class of the field?
His motivation was low towards the end of 2016 but I’m sure such a leap would restore his desire to win.
If it wasn’t for the motivation aspect I’d be asking more whether he (or even Massa) couldn’t be the one to step in to the Williams to replace Bottas and keep the team moving forwards.
Jenson was pretty revved up about the 2017 regulation changes prior to him getting into the retirement mind-frame in the second half of 2016. If he could get his head back in it (and getting his hands on a ’17 spec fat-tired car at the pointy end of the grid should at least get him thinking) I believe he’d keep Lewis honest, picking up wins for a ‘proper’ career sign-off. And it would work for Mercedes as a nice stop-gap until 2018, when Alonso’s free to sign up, and wrap up his career with a few stabs at another championship.
It’s all wishful thinking of a Jenson and Alonso fan, who thinks their talent has been wasted over the last few years at Mclaren – but is it beyond feasible?
That’s a very big “if” though, and from his demeanour in the closing overs of this season I’d say he was heartily fed up with the whole business and looking forward to the strenunous business of mucking around for the rest of his life.
Joe
Thank you, as always. Are you able to tell us about the differences between the views of the team principals (Wolff / Lauda / Lowe) and the gentlemen from Stuttgart (Zetsche et al). It would be very interesting to know who is pulling in which direction.
I’ll just wander into the board room and ask them…
Your connections and influence continue to impress 😀 😉
Oh my! Joe and just_a_bloke….thank you! 🙂
I don’t see another ROPE PULLING DIRECTION other than that of Zetsche.
Oppps! what happened to Alonso?
It was never an option
OK, you win!!! It was quite fun reading the crap for a while…
Where does Carlos Sainz fit in to all of this? He’s obviously not at Max and Daniel’s level, but he’s easily in the top 6 and could be better utilized elsewhere. Where do you see him ending up?
He’s pretty good. I wouldn’t underestimate him
Sainz wasn’t as instantly exciting as Jos, probably more measured and less natural…but I don’t think his outright speed is much different. I’d say he’s a capable backup for Red Bull if Jos or Daniel move on or can’t drive for whatever reason.
Good points as always Joe and quite insightful regarding Williams. From a timescale point of view does it not look more probable that they don’t really want PM but will settle for him if they have too since there has been no Wehrlein announcements. In other words if Merc’s first choice was PW then surely he would have been announced by now. Or are they still beavering away at Alonso’s contract…..Sorry couldn’t resist that one 😉
So much for assumptions! In the winter when the new Honda engine was under development everybody assumed that it would create the same dominant situation of the previous Honda F1 era. I read a rumour that all was not well in the Honda engine camp and wrote it as a comment here but no one noticed.
I find it difficult to believe that Williams would pay Paddy more than Merc even if they could, as Frank in not renowned for being liberal with his money.
Joe I’ve heard a rumour that Merc might only offer Bottas a fixed 1 year deal before signing Vettel for 2018? Could that be a sticking point. Joe? By the way if Mercedes had been truly adventurous in their decisions they’d of gone and got Alonso out of McLaren irrespective of cost however they have not. The move for Bottas is safe and sensible nothing more.
Is Hulk still a remote possibility?
(If Renault can get Sainz or Bottas?)
Button is a good fit for Martini and a ‘nice’ partner for Stroll.
One elegant solution that seems to jump out to solve the Stroll/experienced driver issue… Why not offer Paul di Resta as part of a package that includes Lowe and a heavily discounted engine to get Bottas.
Would Paul Duresta be an option for Williams, or has he been gone to long
Never heard of him
Okay my bad spelling this time same question Paul di Resta
Has he raced the turbo card?
Joe,
Are the Mercedes customer teams on the same spec engine as the factory team?
@ OXO, Brundle and Cowell on the subject of customer supply.
Brundle, “same engine specification, same opportunities, software comes under this?”.
Cowell, “exactly the same hardware, the same specification, the same modes, exactly the same opportunities, the same Petronas fuel and oil”.
A NOTE HERE, Cowell did not said yes to “the same software question”
All Cowell said yes too is as mandated by the FIA RULES regarding the specification of the customer power unit supply.
The FIA DOES NOT mandate that the same software be supplied to customers, in fact they don’t even mention software in the supply rules.
There is a thing called the common ECU
There is but the calibration values put into that SECU can make a big difference to performance.
I cannot understand how and why a post explaining the difference in having “A COMMON ECU” and a different software was not let to stand.
The answer is probably in the blog rules. You run fast and free with your opinions and your language. Maybe you should calm down a bit
That is what I was wondering, how can one say infringe the blog rules when explaining technical matters?
I have no idea, but judging by the way you write, you probably wrote something abusive about someone else and I don’t put up with that. You have been sailing pretty close to the wind on this, as have several others and, in case, you don’t know, I don’t put up with it. So, as I said, red the blog rules, understand whatever it is that you did that was wrong and everything will then be fine.
I would have thought “same modes” would imply “same software”, but I could be wrong.
FIA rules, Article 23.5 of FI’S 2016 sporting regulations said “only power units which are identical to the power unit that has been homologated by the FIA in accordance with appendix 4 of these regulations may be used at any event during the 2016-2020 championship seasons”.
Although this rule prevents different specification of engines, it does not cut-off the possibility of manufacturers using better/different software mapping, neither different fuel/oil products to ensure a competitive advantage over their customers.
I was considering if merc have anything else they could offer Willis to sweeten the deal.
/Are the Mercedes customer teams on the same spec engine as the factory team?/
Yes, generally.
You have to be joking. It’s all in the mapping and not so long ago someone was fired for accidentally putting a works map on a customer car. The driver says the difference was unbelievable.
There’s also the question of why Mercedes is in F1 in the first place, ie to sell cars. I can’t imagine Finland is a particularly important market for them.
If that were the logic they operate under, they would hire a Chinese driver. But they don’t, so they won’t.
It seems to me that its going to be Wehrlein all day long. The more i read the more difficult the Bottas situation seems. The problem Merc face if they dont do this deal quickly is disgruntaling their junior driver therfore forcing him into an even more submissive role against Hamilton. We are, in reality looking at a one year deal if they go for a more junior driver (with possible option) and with rule changes likely, in 2018, if Merc do well in 2017 it seems very likely a big names will be gagging to jump ship (especially when Lewis decides he wants a change to enable him to do a fangio).
I have a big brother and a big sister and was definately more worried if my brother ‘kicked the board’!!
Can you clarify the contractual status of Paddy Lowe and Mercedes with regard to when it expires? Today you state: “Contrary to rumours, Lowe is contracted to Mercedes next year so to let him go to Williams would be a big bonus to sweeten the deal to get Bottas”, but in “Lowe Expectations”, yesterday: “Lowe’s Mercedes contract runs out at the [missing word] of the year and this means that there is no requirement for any gardening leave, which means that he could start at Williams on January 1” – to which years are you referring? Thanks.
See previous replies
You wrote yesterday that Lowe’s contract is about to expire at the end of 2016. Was it just a rumour?
It was what I thought was right yesterday, which is not right. So I corrected it. You do not seem to understand that contract information is not public and details are not handed out. We have to dig it out and sometimes it is hard to know the truth. As I have said elsewhere, I honestly feel that some of the commenters on this blog don’t appreciate the info they get. It’s not easy to do.
I do appreciate. I wouldn’t bother to read Your blog otherwise, it’s one of my few primary sources of F1 information. Anyway, the news that Paddy’s contract is valid for 2017 is both interesting and surprising. How strong is his position in negotiations with Mercedes in Your opinion with possible gardening leave and James Allison allegedly just waiting for a call?
James cannot join until July – and probably doesn’t want to.
Would di Resta be an option for Williams if Bottas goes to Merc? Reserve driver there last year, has similar F1 experience to Bottas, would fit the Martini profile. From the outside, looks like something that could work.
I heard there’s a site suggesting Maldonado.
OK, you can all stop laughing now.
You said yesterday that Paddy Lowes contract ran out at the end of the year?
Yes and I changed my opinion based on further discussions
Well, Mercedes stuck an advert in the back of Autosport for a Race Driver. Who knows who may turn up….
It was a joke!
Thank christ for that! It was so convincing I couldn’t tell if it was irony or not. I certainly hoped so though part of me suspected it cold be a legal obligation from Mercedes or something daft like that…
BenW> It was so convincing I couldn’t tell if it was irony or not.
What, even given “Ideally, you will have a proven track record in skills including steering, braking and in particular, accelerating.”?!
Plus the fact that there were no contact details… 🙂
Hi Joe,
If Bottas indeed leaves Williams, what are the chances of Paul di Resta replacing him? Experienced, cheap and quick solution?
Thanks
I doubt it
You spelled “crap” wrong
Joe .
Has our American friend AR now got the confidence to fill the bill?
No
I still say Wehrlein, but this Paddy Lowe situation brings in an unexpected factor, so I am no longer 100% sure, either.
What amazes me is that lots of F1 people (Not saying you Joe) seem to be assuming that Mercedes will be dominant again despite huge changes in rules.
I don’t think Lewis running away with the title because Rosbergs replacement lacks experience is highly unlikely.
Obviously my last sentence doesn’t make sense as I changed structure half way through. Hopefully you get the gist. Oh for an edit button.
It is likely that they will be
The rule changes aren’t that huge– It’s still going to be power-unit dominated, and the Merc V6 is still the king. Ferrari and Renault will close the gap, but Mercedes has much more experience squeezing performance out of this formula– they’re also spending more money on the engine than their competitors.
Yes, aero and mechanical grip will be “more”– but that same level of “more” is available to all the teams. Unless some team comes up with an aero trick that’s nigh impossible to duplicate, expect Mercedes to remain at the front of aerodynamic grip (they’re not far off Red Bull, if at all), and, personal opinion, the Mercedes chassis has better mechanical grip than any other chassis, which should pay huge dividends in 2017.
With the machavalian stage set, with Rosberg’searly retirement, Bottas being locked solid into a contract which appears to be bullet proof, Hulkenburg’s ink not quite dry on his Force India contract, though he’d be ideal, the only real option would appear to be Wehrlein. From my seat, the only other option would be a driver from another series who holds a super license.
slight tangent, but Nico signed a contract to drive for next 2 seasons at a fee of $18m in July. Was there a ‘clean break’ clause which allows him to walk away leaving this problem? If not, what are the personal implications?
If a driver retires he doesn’t get paid.
If a driver retires he doesn’t get paid…BUT he has still broken the contract.
I feel that Mercedes, and obviously I don’t know for sure so I should say that Its my speculation, that because it’s retirement then they have decided to let him go.
It would have been a different matter if he was planning going elsewhere.
That’s life!
yes, that is quite true off course Gerry. Had Rosberg expressed the feeling that he would suddenly fancy joining Ferrari, McLaren, etc, I it is quite possible that Rosberg would only be released from the contract by paying some money and probably sitting out a year.
But since that is not the case, they just signed a termination of the contract.
Why not Sainz as a possibility? He is very good ( compared well against Verstappen and he will be frustrated as forward progress ( to Red Bull) is blocked so he is consigned to a third year in the junior team – and then what? He can’t move up , so a lateral move in ’18 is more likely than an unprecedented fourth year at Toro Rosso. Seeing as he is likely to leave anyway, why not let him go now and promote Gasly, next in the wings in their development programme?. ‘Loan’ Sainz for a year or two as is done in football, with hopes of a return to Red Bull in future.
Is Bottas that more attractive a poach than Sainz? I’d back Carlos in a head-to head.
I doubt Red Bull want to help Mercedes.
Williams need someone who is older, experienced, proven in F1, available and marketable. Long odds for Mark Webber.
I feel for Sainz. “All dressed up and no place to go” Red Bull isn’t likely to strengthen the opposition by letting him go but a promotion isn’t on the cards either.
What about Alex Rossi
Too many question marks.
The longer this goes on the more I think Merc must be regretting being so lenient with Nico when he quit. Obviously you can’t make a driver race for you but it surely it could have waited until arrangements had been made for a replacement, during which time Nico could have remained silent on the matter. Now everyone knows Merc are in a corner – it wasn’t well managed by management, which included Paddy Lowe of course, although it seems Toto is at the pointy end of this.
You don’t get a choice when a driver retires…
I agree with this. Surely his contract has a notice period that they could enforce or ask for compensation? If not I’d suggest they should add one to cover themselves in the future.
I don’t know Stephen Deakin. Rosberg mentioned that he would have been happy to not tell the world until the end of the year, but he understood that Mercedes wanted to bring the news out as early as possible to be able to go and openly look for a replacement.
“contrary to rumors, Lowe is contracted to Mercedes next year” Joe Saward. That is exactly what I believed the Lowe situation was. and that is exactly why I posted on the other page (Lowe expectations) and told you Joe, that those at SKY were telling their followers that there will not be any need for Lowe gardening leave. now once again those at Sky are telling their followers “furthermore, with his (Lowe) contract at Mercedes due to expire on December 31, there is no need for Lowe gardening leave” As I said, and that regardless of what the Flaming’s and the Nedyr’s say, speculation/wrong information by some journo’s/commentators/self appointed experts being feed/pushed forward to their followers will do more harm than good to the sports of F1.
So glad you know it all. You should try to turn professional.
Mercedes are smart, and have to keep pushing for Bottas as he seems the best fit if they can get him, the Wehrlein replacement to Williams obviously leaves them too short on experience! Some are saying Di Resta to step up but I think he left in 2013 so has no experience with the new hybrid PU’s so less likely than Pascal for Williams.
It really would be a shame if Bottas misses a top drive due to a clause another driver has in his contract due to Dad’s money!
Mercedes really need to see Wehrlein and Ocon develop and see which one they want in the next few years, not in 3 months! But they may have no choice.
I think the only two drivers that shouldn’t have done their best to try to get that drive are the Red Bull drivers, new regs, you have to have faith in Newey and Renault stepping forward some more.
I still go for Ocon in the Mercedes, then Wehrlein could have the Force India spot (provided they would want him). Strange thing is that where Wehrlein was highly successful in DTM, Ocon was struggling. Then in F1 Wehrlein wasn’t bad, but Ocon adapted pretty easily. What does this tell about their F1 future?
If only the hulk had resigned for FI….
The other issue to consider is what happens if Hamilton is injured or becomes sick….
For some FORMULA ONE will be dead.
If you have nothing of value to say about the sport that we here love, please don’t waste our time and energy with such posts.
You run a tight ship here, Joe. I like it.
Joe, my opinion, just for the record, this salvuborg’s posts are quite irritating, condescending, and obnoxious with a negative slant, sometimes insulting, from an individual who sees themselves as F1 The Oracle.
If Button’s last part of the season wasn’t that…’meh’. I could have seen it a perfect solution at Williams for sponsors and Stroll. Even if it were just for a year so they could work towards a permanent solution in 2018 instead of being rushed into something if the Bottas move would happen this winter.
Then again, not like I can see what is happening in the shadows and I don’t think being a fan of Button helps to see clearly either.
AFAIR Williams had approached Button well before Rosberg retired. He wasn’t interested then, why would he be now?
Mercedes are being a bit too cautious with its youngsters. If they don’t put Wehrlein in that car they will send out a message, that they are not confident in their junior driver programme. They will look insecure compared to the likes of McLaren and Red Bull, who do not seem to hesitate too much before giving a young gun a shot with the mindset, that if he does not deliver he is just not for F1. Mercedes risk to put themselves in a bad negotiating position with future bright stars, as everyone will prefer to join McLaren or RBR, where they know they will have the chance to get in the car sooner and prove what they can do, rather than being babysitted 3-4 years in DTM or Manor and still having very slim chances of joining the main team. This exact thing happened with Verstappen, who was approached by Merc, but decided to go with RedBull, as they promised to give him a drive straight away. Joe, do you think Mercedes should probably rethink their whole young driver programme or their current plan of developing a driver to the state where he is considered a “complete package” before giving him the top drive will eventually prove to be very successful?
Joe, The statement on Lowe in this article seems to disagree with the one previous, “Contrary to rumours, Lowe is contracted to Mercedes next year”, where as your previous article on this subject seem to say his contract expires on Dec 31?
Yes, it did. You should try finding out this kind of stuff some time. Everyone thinks it is easy and the teams hand it out. I guess it underlines my belief that the readers of this blog don’t really appreciate what they get…
I think you jest, I fully appreciate what you deliver to us outside of the paddock for free, I suppose my problem is I have one is that as one of the only journo’s I follow, that I actually believe the stuff you say, and was surprised to see the change of state, and wanted to confirm this?
These things happen sometimes when one is pushing into areas of great secrecy. I try to avoid them but if they happen I admit to them.
I find it difficult to accept, in general, you believe that your readers don’t appreciate what you give them because I have read this blog for years and apart from the real idiots the general theme from the majority is nothing other than praise for your journalism style and insight into the business.
So I have to say, Joe, that you probably don’t realise how respected you really are 🙂
Probably not, but we all get bored with trolls.
Getting this info is easy… just browse to joesaward.wordpress.com….. er… ohhhhhh….. 😉
In all seriousness, while I frequently disagree some of Joe’s opinions, his facts tend to be solid and free of “some bloke on the intarwebs said….” type information.
Serious respect for Joe’s skills as a journalist– a mostly forgotten word in today’s age of instant media.
Hmm..new information? Yesterday you were saying Lowe was not contracted to Merc next year…
Yes. It’s good to discover new things. It happens.
For several years we have seen young, talented drivers struggling to make it into F1 when they don’t have a financial package to bring to a team. The smaller teams have often had to take ‘pay drivers’, whatever their relative level of skill, in order to continue to exist as ongoing entities. Some of these drivers have flourished, whilst some such as Maldonado have not had sufficient skill to be retained once the money has dried up. So money has in some cases taken precedence over skill.
This has meant that drivers who I’d like to have seen given more of a shot in F1 (such as Robin Frijns and Alex Rossi) have, sooner or later, been diverted into other categories. Maybe they’d have made it, maybe not – but they never really got the chance.
We can argue to some extent that ‘it was ever thus’, but the result is that we have a smaller pool of drivers with enough F1 experience to be deemed capable enough to drive for a top team. Should we therefore conclude that, as ever seems to be the case in F1, this is yet another problem of the sports own making?
Yesterday Lowe’s contract expired at the end of the year and today it runs for another year.
What changed?
Better information becomes available. Don’t you ever learn new things?
Joe, a few weeks ago you were saying that Nico and Lewis were going to be driving for Mercedes in 2017, now you are saying something different; what changed?
;O
I obviously lost my marbles
Too much time on the internet will have that effect. 🙂
This seems quite far-fetched, but do you think there’s a possibility that Paul di Resta might end up back in the sport if Bottas goes to Mercedes, Joe? Isn’t he on Williams’ books as a reserve driver? He’s also old enough, has a few years experience and is a known quantity. He might have stopped moaning so much after a few years out aswell.
No
I know this a weird long shot – but Sam Bird? Ex Merc reserve driver. GP2 winner. Nearly champion.
“running has-beens is a lesson the team learned before Lewis joined the team”
Which was that lesson again?
In 2012, Schumacher beat Rosberg 11-9 in qualifying with an average advantage of 0,113 seconds. When both cars finished the race, it was 7-3 for Schumacher.
Unless you are referring to Barrichello at Brawn GP, I have no idea what you are talking about.
Hi Joe
I thought Paddy Lowe’s contract ran-out at the end of 2016, is it an “option” you are talking about above or is he contracted on the same terms as this year for 2017? If he is unable to join Williams without the consent of Mercedes, then I think he is a big bargaining chip and could well mean that Bottas will be driving for Mercedes in 2017.
The biggest stumbling block seems to be that Williams could fall back a long way in the constructors championship with 2 inexperienced drivers and this could cost them big money for 3 years. Also would Bottas want to move for just one season, with so many top drivers out of contract at the end of 2017 Mercedes would/could have a lot of choice thereafter.
What a pickle Mercedes find themselves in, a pickle, it seems entirely of their own making and underlines a point I have made for some time. That Red Bull are the only team who seem to have a functioning driver programme.
Even if Red Bull lost both its drivers right now they wouldn’t have a major problem on their hands – not ideal granted – but it’s clear what they would do, because they planned ahead.
OK, not every team has a junior outfit to draw from but on the other hand Mercedes have three teams heavily dependent upon them for engine supply so it’s hard to imagine a contingency couldn’t have been put in place.
James Allen is stating that James Key looks to be on his way to Williams as well. Does this mean that Paddy will take more of a team boss role, alongside Claire, or they are going to bring back the Director of Engineering like when Patrick Head was involved. Or has James got his facts wrong?
[Will people please read the blog rules. I dodn’t allow links]
p.s. my money is on Bottas to Mercedes, and Nasr to Williams, following Bruno, Felipe and Rubens continuous line of Brazilian drivers at Williams. Must help with keeping on Brazilian sponsors. Weirlein at Sauber or Manor IMO.
I dont see why Key could not work for Lowe
What is it with all these Paul Di Resta references. Those suggesting Carlos Sainz…I kind of see what they mean. But Paul Di Resta?!
Di Resta has the Mercedes association and is currently a test driver for Williams along with Gary Paffett
Also, for those of us who watch Sky F1, he is on our screens as a commentator and technical person; was purported to be Williams’ reserve driver; and competing in DTM for Mercedes.
If the “anyone can win in that rocketship” crowd had not evaporated, he would seem like a shoe in for Merc’.
Joe: thanks for the insight.
Re. Alonso to Mercedes never having been an option: do you have any inkling whether he ‘chose’ to stay with the team, or that there were no performance clauses to exercise?
Thanks in advance.
Ron Dennis is on record saying there are no options, just a straight three year contract.
I know
Everyones desperate to please mercedes it seems while at the same time moaning about their continued dominance.
For a moment put yourselves in Frank Williams’s position. They are more successful than merc in the modern era of racing with more titles and constructors wins.
Maybe this years car will be good and they win the first 5 or so races with Bottas before everyone catches up (the brawn supremacy plot rerun) .
How stupid will frank and co look with totally inexperienced drivers finishing 4 or 5th instead.
No doubt all the press will be on their backs.
They cant afford to let Bottas go but to keep him keen they can say they wont stand in his way for 2018.
The probability that Williams will find literally SECONDS for 2017 compared to top teams is close to zero. People tend to forget that Brawn story was hardly a cinderella one. It was one of the most expensive cars to develop and it was well and ready when Honda pulled the plug. Add to this FIA’s reluctance to ban double-decker diffusers and you’ll get the full picture. A non-repeatable feat.
How did Williams do the last time there was a significant change to the technical regs?
Mem is right (even if the example may be deliberately extreme), Williams have taken the time to build up a good base of engineers, sponsors, facilities and technical partners, why would they give that up by plumping for a bit of extra money in the bank in order to keep a rival happy? It makes no sense.
Let’s say for example Martini became dissatisfied (for reasons which have been raised already), $10m compensation from Mercedes already looks like a very poor deal indeed.
Now, if Paddy Lowe was part of the equation, well that could be a different kettle of fish.
Thank you for the update, Joe. Am glad that you give us new information when you discover it, even if it contradicts your previous posts. Not sure what some of these people want you to do: stick to your guns and carry on giving out the previous information even though you know it’s now wrong?! The mind boggles…
Not really sure why you keep linking Felipe N. to a Williams drive when he has had trouble beating Ericsson. As a Williams fan I would rather try to get Felipe Massa out of retirement, or get JEV.
Yes… I’ve been wondering why JEV’s name hadn’t been mentioned at all.
After all, when you think about how well he stood up against Ricciardo (16-10 & 13-20) and Kyvat (22-8), it seems odd that he’s not being considered, as far as we know.
Joe,
Thanks as always for a well thought out and informative post. I can imagine that life at Mercedes F1 must be like a swan swimming on a river, above the water serene and calm, underwater, all manner of thrashing about! All the best for Christmas.
I undersrand that Mr Stroll brings a bucket of money to Williams but if they are so afraid of being beaten by a young teammate they should not come into F1 straight after F3. What next? They put in the contract that the teammate should always run on wet tires in the dry? What a disgrace for F1.
Not sure why Button’s name ket coming up ..surely he’s still under contract, at least for another 12 months ? Also, not fair .. those posts claiming he had a poor year but not following up with the fact that the MaC is now a complete tug, with a PU that i’d be embarrassed to slot into my NIssan
There’s someone at Mercedes right now who is perfect for that seat. Just look at who’s buying Mercs. Rich old white guys, a lot of them native German speakers. Put Niki Lauda in the car and watch the sales go through the roof, it’s all just a marketing exercise anyway right?
Don’t let a few mongoloids piss you off, Joe. The vast majority of us come here because we value your knowledge and insight and want to hear what you have to say. You’re our trusted source in a world of sensationalist bullshit; our voice of reason. One correction on a subject that by its very nature is kept hidden doesn’t change that. True we don’t really know what goes into it behind the scenes but we do massively appreciate you taking the time and effort to put your findings and musings up here for us, for little or no reward. Thank you, Joe. And Merry Christmas to you and yours.
The mind games are cruel. By demanding Wehrlein on his side, Lewis sends the message that ”this one may be ok for the team”. By not announcing Wehrlein 48 hours after Nico’s quitting, Mercedes sent the message ”well…he used to be our next star, but he may not be ready, etc etc”. Young? Max Verstappen and Sainz delivered so well. Kimi was barely learning to drink vodka when he got hired. Massa idem. Alonso the same (minardi).
Someone is wrecking Wehrlein’s confidence right now…Not that i care, i don’t pay his bills, but i do wonder whether he now thinks he can beat Lewis after all this…
I think you may be reading too much into the whole process.
We can live with that, can’t we? On the very day germany announces cold fusion may be around the corner we’re ”concerned” about F-1. Awesome.
Stuff cold fusion. This is the day innocents are being slaughtered in Aleppo so that Putin can get a grip on his extreme Islamist problem in Russia.
Tell me if i’m wrong. Is’nt the point of this blog to discuss F1. The thing we are all reading this for! Getting annoyed or abusive seems, to me, pointless. As are comments on unrelated world politics. Whilst i have an massive interest in other world concerns as i’m sure everyone does, lets just F1 it!
You are not wrong Greg. Its just that sometimes even F1 pales to insignificance. But, yes, let’s try to stay on message for the sake of sanity.
Makes you wonder why Red Bull was so disinclined to allow Carlos Sainz to go to Renault. If Max went to Merc who would they replace him with? Sainz or course!
It’s all a bit far fetched but who knows what clauses are written into these contracts?
Max must be top of every teams wish list. Would be amazing for F1 too.
The bit I find a little funny is that Lowe didn’t help Mclaren up the grid but walked into a winning Mercedes team , great timing.
I guess Lowe learned enough Mercedes secrets to help Williams up the grid & would be of value while the information is still relevant but even that will take some time to take effect ,
From where Williams sit now going up should be achievable with Paddys help & would coincide with with his retirement plans win win I guess.
There’s been a lot of crap around during the past few days; this post helps to cut right through it. Lots of free insight for which the vast majority of us seem to remain grateful. Thanks Joe.
Jenson Button in the second seat at Mercedes? You heard it here first.
No, I’ve heard it for days.
Seriously JB IS in the frame?
Not a chance
My fave theory from the above is the Webber to Willys move, to facilitate Bottas to MBZ while keeping the Stroll camp on side.
Oh, what a tangled web we weave….
You obviously haven’t read Mark’s book. He didn’t leave Williams on good terms.
the salt is what do Merc want – a driver for 1 year before they can go for likes of Vettel or they want some1 for long therm for the future and if LH also quits. If it’s for 1 year then not too many will rush to risk to be trashed by LH and go wayside after then, Bottas included. Perhaps the only kamikadze willing to do it would be Daniil Kvyat
Would Lowe be allowed to go to William’s kind of on loan for the first year with Mercedes paying his contract for the final year? In return Bottas can be moved the other way? Would be quite the sweetener.
From reading between the lines it seems to me that Rosberg Jr has rather dropped his team in it!
yes his army of fans (all the people negative about lewis) have been betrayed and the endless bragging sheduled for the winter months has probably been replace by being mean to the pet cat lol
Joe – please can you ban anyone who suggests Paul di Resta ( Dire Sta ) for the No 2 Merc seat please? He hasn’t raced in F1 since 2013 ( although has been a Willy reserve )
For what it is worth, my money is on Danny Ric going to Merc courtesy of Bernie’s influence to make sure, as you say, Lewis has some competition and doesn’t get 20 poles, 20 f/laps and 20 wins (WDC by Spa )
sometimes one wonders what grasp of reality many people have
joe didn’t even need his superior inside knowledge to tell us alonso was a no go , just used his intelligence ; honda just paid alonso large bags of gold for a couple of years only to let him go to mercedes when the new regs came in ?
as johnnie mac used to say…you cannot be serious
so mercedes should do a deal with alonso for 2018 ..if they can …..a one year deal with button would fill the gap, a front running car would soon restore his enthusiasm ; after that the best young charger would be rather more evident
I don’t see Button going to Mercedes. Being Lewis’s teammate is no picnic. Lewis needs to have competition and Mercedes need competition or more track may drop off of the schedule because they can’t sell the on-track product. There needs to be a competitive grid this season in F1 for many reasons.
I think that Williams have dug their heels in as far as Bottas. Lewis will destroy Wehrlein on track and Wehrlein may just get mad enough and use his car to retaliate at some point.
Massa > Williams
Bottas > Mercedes
Wehrlein > ?
Sauber
Has the name of Adrian ‘Slasher’ Sutil been mentioned amid all the rumour, disinformation and plain nonsense of recent days? Though I’m given to understand he’s not on very good terms with Hamilton any more…
Only by you, although to what purpose I cannot fathom.