Who is where in the F1 pecking order?

The question that everyone wants to know the answer to at the moment is who is going to be on top of the timesheets at the end of the qualifying in Melbourne – and who is going to win the race?

Over the years I have made the mistake of making predictions, and seen many others make the same mistake. Testing gives an impression, but one never really knows whether it is the right impression, because one does not know what the different teams are up to. They have more of a chance to assess who is where because they have data available and lots of people who can analyse this information.

In addition to this, in 2011 we have the additional problem of the new tyres, which adds an important new variable to what was already a very complicated task. One does not know, for example, if there is any sandbagging going on; or any performance-enhancing come to that. There is a big difference now between hard and soft tyres with Pirelli having agreed to make tyres that will add to the show rather than the bulletproof black round rubber things that Bridgestone were using at the end of last year. The other point that has to be made is that most of the teams will have new aerodynamic kits for the first race. Development never stops so what is possibly true today may not be true tomorrow. Add to that the important point that some teams are ahead of others in their work, because they have had fewer problems and the point that all testing thus far has been in cool conditions and some cars will work better on their tyres in warmer conditions and you can see that this is a problem which is best left to sort itself out… as it assuredly will.

Impressions are all that can be drawn from the testing to date. I have been really impressed thus far by the amount of running that some of the teams have been doing with new cars. One expects a few problems out of the box but there are teams that have been running 100 laps a day from the start of testing. Given the complexity of the machines this is incredible. Changes to the technical regulations usually increase gaps between the teams, while stability draws them closer together, so we should expect there to be some bigger gaps this year.

The regulatory restrictions that exist these days mean that the differences between the cars are much less pronounced that previously. Engines are fairly well matched and balanced, aero and CFD time is controlled, spending is curtailed and teams are not allowed to build things out of wildly expensive unobtainium because it is two percent stiffer than titanium… These are still fabulously exotic pieces of machinery but they are not as exotic as they could be. That is a good thing because one needs to have a sustainable level of budget to ensure that there is a grid full of cars.

Most people seem to think that Red Bull has not lost the advantage seen at the end of last year and that these are still the cars to watch, although Ferrari appears to have toughened up its challenge. Who is ahead? It may depend on the nature of each individual circuit. It may not. Thus far at least, one gets the impression that McLaren and Mercedes are not quite on the pace. McLaren missed the first test to get some additional aerodynamic development time and that means that there is some on-track catching up to do, although it is dangerous thing to write off a team of such calibre just yet.

Mercedes does not seem to be on the pace but there is clearly a belief that there are new parts in the system that will improve the speed of the cars. Renault seems to have made technical progress but losing Robert Kubica is going to hurt and one has to look at budgets as well because cars with spaces on the bodywork or in-house deals never do as well as those with big corporations writ large on the side… particularly when we get two-thirds of the way into the season.

In the midfield there seems to have been (logical) progress from Sauber, Williams and Scuderia Toro Rosso, but will this be progress enough to be challenging up front? Force India was late getting the new car out and so is not quite there at the moment. Team Lotus has made the expected leap forward that would logically come from using Renault engines and a Red Bull gearbox, but one must not forget that this is a completely new team and it takes time develop the same levels of efficiency as the big established operations. Hence there have been some reliability problems thus far. It is to be expected. Virgin has a better car but the impression is that it has not jumped as far up the order as Lotus and Hispania remains a mystery for now. The car looks nice from the pictures released to date but they are a long way behind in terms of knowledge.

What we do know is that with the Pirelli tyres as they are now, races are going to be won and lost thanks to a driver’s ability to make his tyres last a little longer than the opposition. The drop off in performance when it comes is more pronounced than previously which means that race will be won and lost as a result.

An interesting seson ahead…