Sitting in the Emirates Lounge at Charles de Gaulle, and all is well. The incoming plane has not yet arrived and so I have had some time to read some of the stories on the Web. And what a lot of rubbish is being written about the Formula 1 “Silly Season”. It is not anything like as silly as it used to be because the big teams are now corporations of some size and they tend to plan ahead, and so Ferrari usually has its drivers lined up 18 months ahead of their first day “in the office” at Maranello. McLaren tends to go with the flow a little more and is still discussing the future with Jenson Button but my feeling is that any stories about him going to Ferrari are more likely to be negotiating ploys rather than anything too serious. Jenson is happy with Lewis Hamilton at McLaren – it’s a perpetual love-in – and there is not reason to change anything, unless Button believes that Ferrari will produce a better car; and that Ferrari will give him the same chances as enjoyed by Fernando Alonso. Yes, every driver wants to be a Ferrari driver at some point, but Jenson is very much a guy who wants to win races and McLaren offers him plenty of opportunity to do that. Having said that, the timing is interesting as this is the moment at which one would expect to see Ferrari signing a Felipe Massa replacement for 2013.
The original plan was to have Robert Kubica in the car and the Italian team had an option on the Pole, which was signed at some point last year. That option should have been taken up in May, but with Robert in hospital and his future far from certain the Italians decided to let it drop.
Much has been written about the driver line-up at Lotus Renault GP, or whatever the team will be called, next year. On paper the driver line-up is already set: Vitaly Petrov and Robert Kubica, but that is only on paper… One should never forget that an F1 contract is best viewed as the starting point of a negotiation… rather than being something binding.
So, yes, Vitaly Petrov has a contract for 2012, but he needs to up his game a bit to warrant the drive. He did not slot Nick Heidfeld away as he ought to have done and Bruno Senna has (thus far) made the Russian look rather average, in terms of speed.
On paper, Kubica should be with Renault for one more year but there are too many unkowns regarding Robert’s future. One can hope that he will recover fully, and if there is one driver who has the toughness to come back from such injuries, it is Robert, but there are also very simple mechanical questions to be answered. If Robert’s body works as it did before his crash then I am sure he will be back in F1 and fast. Logically, he needs to be in a half-decent car in 2012 if he is to have any hope of reviving his Ferrari deal, but that will be what he will be chasing.
The financial situation of Lotus Renault is getting a lot of ink as well, but from what I hear the team should be rather better off next year as the Group Lotus sponsorship will kick in (finally), the team will will have its FOM money and there seems to be a lot of work going on to get money from either the Russian or the French government. Senna is very marketable as well, but he needs results to cement his position. The French would obviously like to see Romain Grosjean in one of the cars, which means that there are four drivers trying to squeeze into two seats. Renault will have four teams using its engines and so, in theory at least, it might be able to use some of its clout to squeeze a driver into Lotus (aka Team Caterham AirAsia) or Williams, but that would require cash and Renault Sport F1’s aim is not to invest more in the sport, but rather less. There may be industrial synergies with both teams, which might help, but nothing beats hard cash…
All of this means that there is not lot of room in the market for the Sergio Perezs, Adrian Sutils and Kamui Kobayashis. The Sauber pair have re-signed for the Swiss team and so will stay where they are but Ferrari has definitely been sniffing around Perez, intrigued no doubt by the idea that his presence in the team might lead to Carlos Slim Jr, the son of the richest man in the world, sending some money to Italy, rather than Switzerland…
As for Sutil, his future with Force India is by now means assured. There is little further up the grid to aspire to, and so talking to Williams is a logical thing to be doing – whether he and his management are denying it or not. All that denying true stories ever achieves in F1 is to create mistrust around a driver, which is never a sensible idea.
joeblogsf1 
I thought that grosjean was Swiss !
or is it that the french are so desperate to have someone in F1 that someone who speaks their language will do as they lack a homegrown talent
colin grayson
Sutil is half-Uruguayan, Rosberg is half-Finnish, so why is being half-Swiss a crime?
Besides, there is a wave of French talent coming right now: Bianchi, Pic, Grosjean and Vergne…
You’ll be telling me next that Bianchi’s great-grandfather was an Italian, his grandfather was a Belgian and he is French.
Vitaly Petrov is the most cost effective driver in F1 by a significant margin, and with Renault haemorrhaging money at a terrific rate, they’d be mad to replace him … Oh hold on.
Karen,
That depends on whether or not money comes from somewhere else. You didn’t answer the question about Prince’s Gate…
I’d be very surprised if JB went to Ferrari. Why would you leave a race winning team that gives you equal treatment to go and be a no 2 in a car that’s no more competitive? Money and the ‘honour’ maybe? Not worth it in my view.
Perez to Ferrari is a fairly obvious one. He’s a Ferrari Academy driver currently in a Sauber-Ferrari with massive amounts of cash behind him and a contract expiring at the end of 2012. With Kubica (sadly) out of the picture, it’s gotta be a done deal.
I’m disappointed Fernandes looks like he’s giving up the Team Lotus name, but I understand the reasons and it won’t stop me supporting them. I would like them to adopt the orange and black Caterham colours, to continue in the Green and Gold, whilst looking really good, would seem a little odd. The new name is a little odd too. I presume that Team Caterham Air Asia will name the chassis a Caterham and not an Air Asia, so why isn’t it Air Asia Team Caterham? Or am I just presuming there’s a convention that doesn’t actually exist?
I don’t think that Ferrari will ever put a driver for a sponsor. Sponsors ask for Ferrari rather.
As for Perez, he is part of Ferrari young driver program and his performances in the Sauber if not stellar are convincing. So I don’t see anything suspicious about Ferrari having a look at him.
On the other hand the young driver program doesn’t make sense for me. Ferrari always hires confirmed drivers and unless they have a B-Team like ToroRosso to nurture their future stars, I don’t see how the program can be a success but I might be wrong. Sauber might be that B-Team with Massa and Perez both growing up there but it’s not that. Peter Sauber doesn’t hire drivers to please anyone : The decision to hire Raikonnen against RedBull will is a proof of that.
Jo Torrent,
You miss my point. Ferrari landed Santander thanks to Alonso. That does not make him a pay-driver
Do you mean Joe that there’s a big chance no French driver will be in F1 next year as well ? For me Williams remains the biggest opportunity of Grosjean to have a crack at F1 but 2 unconfirmed drivers sharing that car is far from the obvious choice.
I’m still in awe at how did Trulli manage to keep his seat at TL. I think that Gascogne played a big role in that as he likes Jarno development and analysis skills very much.
Jo Torrent,
Let us see whether Trulli actually drives next year…
Joe, I’m sure you mean Sutil’s future is by NO means assured.
And who isn’t guilty of reading a little Autosport forum while trying to kill time at the airport? Have a great weekend in Singapore.
Mac,
I don’t read Autosport forums, so I would not know
Forza Kubica, Forza Ferrari!
So, do you think 2012 will be Hamilton’s last year at McLaren. I hope it is as McLaren are on the way down. Hamilton is too good for this team.
Hamilton’s results in the championship under Denis:-
2007 – 2nd
2008 – 1st
Then under Whitmarsh:-
2009 – 5th
2010 – 4th
2011 – 5th (so far)
Totally pathetic for a talent like Hamilton. Whitmarsh must go, or Hamilton must go.
I am willing to bet a few pounds that Hamilton will never win a championship with McLaren again. Even Renault look like a better prospect.
Joe Cowan,
All very strident, but not backed up by much.
No air traffic controllers strike? Amazing.
You are the master of the F1 blog…
How can you say that Senna has made Petrov look average?? Petrov is clearly the better driver.
BIGChrome,
This is my blog. Tht is my opinion. Senna lacks the same kind of experience as Petrov. He has made a good impression.
@ Joe, I believe infact one of the most noteable Italian drivers to race for Ferrari was infact born in switzerland.. or am I getting confused./… saw it in Gran Prix Racing Heroes or something like that a while ago. Great (with Stirling Moss narrating, and old music..) show… and given that I’m a child of the 90’s (early 90’s… am an adult), I found it quite interesting if brief.
@Joe again..
Who would you like to see in Renault next year and who do you think will be in it? Boulllier has made comments publicly about breaking Petrov’s contract…. but he is contracted.
Who do you think will be starting the the 2011 seats in a driving position? (ignoring kubica because he is an unknown)
The only thing we need worry about is that Rubens keeps his seat. Part of me will die when he shuffles off into team orders retirement. The man is a legend in his own lunchtime.
You know, I can see the attraction for JB in going to Ferrari alongside Fernando, apart from the obvious glamour and prestige. When he arrived at McLaren as World Champion he said he was going there because he wanted to test himself against the best in equal machinery, or words to that effect. A lot of people wrote off his chances saying Lewis woud wipe the floor with him. I think they have been proved wrong and JB has more than matched Lewis, certainly this season. I’m not talking about points or qualifying positions, but there is a maturity and fluidity to Jenson’s driving this season which exceeds that of pretty much everyone else on the grid . . . except Alonso (and the Schumacher of 10 years ago). So, having proved himself against Lewis like he said he would, the next natural step would be to go and try and do the same against Fernando. He has the self-belief not to be intimidated by team Alonso, (unlike Massa who simply is not the same driver as he was before his accident in ’09, or perhaps even more damagingly, Alonso’s arrival at Ferrari). He may also believe that Ferrari will do a better job of building a 1.6L V6 turbo, than whoever is going to be doing McLaren’s engoined post-2014.
I hear the points made with regard to Perez, but he would be a clear no.2 in the mould of Barrichello, and unless Ferrari are suddenly going to produce a car that is light years ahead of the rest of the field like they did in 2000-2004 (which seems unlikely given resource restrictions and testing bans) that ain’t going to deliver constructors titles. So, they need to be looking at having two top drivers and Jenson fits the bill perfectly. One stumbling block to this of course is Alonso, who may well have a Prost-style clause in his contract giving him a veto over Ferrari’s chocie of 2nd driver.
Joe,
I missed your point indeed.
“So, yes, Vitaly Petrov has a contract for 2012, but he needs to up his game a bit to warrant the drive. He did not slot Nick Heidfeld away as he ought to have done and Bruno Senna has (thus far) made the Russian look rather average, in terms of speed.”
Yeah, that was a really stupid move by Vitaly Petrov at La Source. he ruined Jaime Alguersuari’s race, and he was lucky to escape with a drive-through penalty. And he had such potential to capitalise on one of his qualifying postions and pick up some points …
No, wait. That wasn’t him at all.
“Logically, he needs to be in a half-decent car in 2012 if he is to have any hope of reviving his Ferrari deal, but that will be what he will be chasing.”
Actually, I think a smarter move would be to put Kubica in a Formula Renault 3.5 for next year. Sure, Formula 1 is the ultimate objective, but the last time a driver took a serious injury – Massa – he was never quite the same. Kubica should run in a feeder series for a year to get that competitive edge back. If his racecraft is good there, Ferrari could sign him directly (though Renault might have something to say about that, since the WSR is their series – the alternative would be to get a dispensation for a GP2 team to run a third car next year, possibly on the condition that Kubica does not actually score points).
Your comment regarding Robert’s ‘mechanical questions’ has got me thinking a little bit. Just how hard is it to drive a F1 car in 2011? Yes, we all hear everyone go on about turn eight in Turkey and the lateral G-forces involved and how physically demanding the Singapore GP is etc. Yet, in reality, we see a 40-something German bloke with a dodgy neck pound around, pulling 4/5 Gs in a metronomic fashion. Most functions in the car (as far as I’m aware) are power-assisted so the actual driving ability comes from the brain and hand-to-eye co-ordination; the G-forces influence the whole body and are not limb-specific.
I’ll call that paragraph ‘objective wishful thinking’, although I am very interested to see the balance between physical and mental demands that a modern F1 car provides.
I am gutted by the news Kubica lost option with Ferrari – I didn’t now about it in first pleace. I believe that Ferrari will keep looking at Robert and his come back as you sugested. If he lends back in Enstone based team (how is called again?) is doubtfull…depending on Lopez selling the whole thing to GLotus and cashing out. Group would like to have top driver I assume and not only look at the money the rookies bring in…all in all…gloomy and bitter. Tough luck – italiian armco missing few screws
Great work and insightful as ever Joe. Reading the latest additions to your blog is a daily delight. Keep them coming! 🙂
It would be a real shame if Kubica doesn’t race again in F1. He was exciting to watch out on track and very, very quick. Hopefully he will recover fully and get back to the level he was at before, but that will surely take time and it sounds like Renault might not give him the opportunity…Thinking back to 2007, when Kubica was the race driver at BMW and Vettel the test driver, I would never have imagined that Vettel would win a world title before Kubica. Shows how useless my predictions are!
Ferrari was simple stupid to wait for signing Kubica so long. He should replace actually poor Massa in second half of 2010, then he wouldn’t be on rally in february and now Ferrari would have been second in championship, with two fast drivers, for bright future. Sad.
My favorite team is Ferrari, my favorite driver is Robert Kubica. To hear that there was truly a possibility of Robert driving for Ferrari and then hearing that it probably won’t happen is terrible terrible news!!
Joe’s comments as to why Jenson will stay at McLaren are all very well and good but I think Jenson will go to Ferrari, given the chance, for the following reasons; money (he is quite badly paid at McLaren compared with previous years, and Hamilton’s paypacket.) and the name Ferrari.
Jenson would love to be paid $15m plus per year which is what he will get at Ferrari and to be part of that illustrious team. Ferrari desperately need him or someone like him to bolster a chance at the WCC in the next few years. Massa is a waste of time and money and never backs up Alonso the way Jenson has done for Hamilton. Plus of course Jenson is incredibly smooth and quick. He has outshone Hamilton this year and will be a first rate team mate for Alonso. Of course we should all consider Webber for Ferrari for ’13.
@PM
You do realise you are goading Senna for making a mistake at the first corner of a race when he hasn’t raced that car ever and hasn’t raced at all in nearly 10 months?
Now, I’m not the biggest anorak of f1 in the world, but I would guesstimate that his mistake, on a scale from 0 to 10 where 0 is compltely understandable and 10 is screwing up a pit stop so you lose a position to the championship leader… I would put it at 0-1. Probably a 0.7 or so. Less than a 1 in other words.
You could look at that incident and see that as a total failuer of a racing driver and take that as a cue to that he should give up on F1 all together
OR
You could look at the times throughout the race, where Senna was roughly matching Petrov for pace given their tyres and other traffic around them. Also note his beater qualifying.
Then note the qualifing on Monza.
Now, I think that may be cause to say ‘wow, I’m quite impressed’… but then he did lock up a brake on the first corner on full fuel.