The future of the French Grand Prix is very unlikely to be solved in the immediate future, but there is a very good chance that something will be done, one way or the other, after the French politicians have sorted out who will be ruling the country. This will be decided in a series of votes that will end on June 17. The first important votes will be the two rounds of the Presidential election that will take place on April 22 and May 6. The first round will wipe out all the riffraff and leave just two candidates in the running. The voters will then have a straight choice. President Nicolas Sarkozy is hoping to get a second five-year term with support from his UMP party. The Socialist Party under François Hollande hope to unseat him. The right-wing National Front has Marine Le Pen, while there is an alternative left wing party under Jean-Luc Mélenchon. There is a centrist Democratic Movement led by François Bayrou. There are various no-hopers. The latest opinion polls have Hollande leading with around 30 percent; Sarkozy closing with 27, Le Pen with 16, Bayrou 11 and Melenchon nine. Things may change however as in order to stand for election a candidate must have the signatures of 500 of France’s 36,000 mayors and at the moment the National Front has managed to get only 440. That could have a dramatic effect on the first round, but the polls still suggest that if it goes down to a Sarkozy-Hollande battle in the second round Hollande will win. At the moment Sarkozy is hunkering down and playing the role of the wise man with experience and gravitas in times of crisis, and Hollande is making lots of promises and terrifying rich people and the business community with some of his more exotic schemes, such as 75 percent income tax for the wealthy. It is clear that there is still much to come as the campaigns intensify.
But the question will not end there. On June 10 and 17 there will be legislative elections, which will create the National Assembly that will have to work with the elected President and his nominated Prime Minister. It is entirely possible that the administration and the National Assembly will be controlled by rival parties, which will make decision-making difficult.
The current Minister of Sport David Douillet may be saying that a deal is close, but it is unlikely that either side is going to do anything before the elections. Afterwards it is likely that a deal will happen with Paul Ricard if the UMP wins; and could happen at Magny-Cours if the Socialists win. In both cases the arrangement would almost certainly be in alternation with the Belgian GP, with Spa getting races in 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020 and 2022; and there being a French event in 2013, 2015, 2017, 2019 and 2021. With France having three F1 drivers, a fourth test and reserve driver and World Championship-winning engines being used by four teams, the chances are that interest in the sport in France will increase and that will make a Grand Prix more likely to happen.
joeblogsf1 
Why, why, why at the expense of Spa and not Valencia or Hungary?
I know Bernie loves money but Spa is iconic, the Championship isn’t the same without it. Every other year isn’t enough.
It is not about money. Bernie does not keep it. It is about doing THE DEAL.
I think Sean’s point still stands! Getting rid of Spa is the same as getting rid of Monaco for most fans. Bernie could easily give them a break the way he does for Monaco
Monaco has power because F1 needs it. Spa does not.
Maybe in the eyes of F1 fans of the age 50+ but I guarantee you that in my group of friends the vast majority of us would rather see Monaco once every two years instead of Spa.
Also, I’ll never get over the butchering Hockenheim took a few years ago. Those endless straights through the forest were the last time we’ll see slipstreaming F1 races. Once a year aerodynamics meant next to nothing compared to engine power, reducing drag, and the size of your balls.
I think you are in a minority about Monaco. It is still the best place of the year. I guess if you have not been there and seen it live it may not be as exciting, but as far as I am concerned Monaco is magic.
Given that you’ve been to Monaco, I think you’ll find that you’re in the minority of F1 fans!
What can I day? Every race should aspire to go to Monaco. Monaco, Monza and Spa.
I also agree about Monaco, looks lovely but is boring. Incredibly boring, Valenica levels of boring. The only reprieve Monaco has is that it’s in such a lovely place.
Spa has the beautiful scenery and exciting corners and it’s so unlike most other tracks out there. No start stopness, no silly chicanes, tracks running down the hill with longer bends looks great. You can really feel the speed of the car even through TV which is where most people see it. Monaco looks slower on TV and is.
Surely the get more poeple watching they should havea Spa and Monaco along with tracks like Suzuka, Australia (Adelaide or Albert Park), Silverstone, Germany (Nurburgring/Hockenhiem), etc… because that is what gets me to watch it. I’ll almost certainly watch the whole of a GP at those locations while at Valencia or Singapore or Abu Dhabi I probably will but if I’m out want watch a recording I’ll just flick through instead, maybe highlights. And this is from someone who follows all the FP sessions through the web text becasue we don’t get video here! I just don’t find those races exciting at all and I’m suprised Bernie doesn’t see the number of people tuning in to those races and being turned off of F1.
Spoken like man who has never been to Monaco.
That is partially my point. Most people who watch F1, and hence are the viewers required to make F1 actually work moneywise haven’t been to Monaco.
F1 won’t work if the only people watching are those who have been to Monaco. It’s hard to get friends to like F1 if they turn it on and it’s a boring track. Most wont think ‘oh, it must be a boring track I’ll try try again and hope to like it’, they will just think, and do jsut think ‘nup.. pretty boring’.
For the record, I haven’t been to Monaco, hope to go someday, but that is beside the point because most people who watch F1 and hence the vital part that adds value to F1 haven’t been to Monaco and enjoy watching races that are more enjoyable on the TV.
I have to admit to being in the Monaco-sceptic camp too, and I have been there, a couple of years back.
Last year’s race actually brought to light some of the points I’ve been making about Monaco for years:
1) Defending a position is too easy and no technical innovation is going to be able to change that (this is a common view)
2) If a driver is going to get badly hurt anywhere on the calendar, there’s good odds it’ll be at Monaco.
Monaco is a rubbish race for TV, it just doesn’t work, and with F1 constantly pushing for more and more TV viewers and a more and more global fanbase Monaco is an anachronism. It’ll be interesting to see whether F1 still “needs” Monaco if/when major US and Asian players join.
But Monaco is a festival to Formula 1. The festival to Formula 1. You bumble around the streets, mingling with fans waving every colour of flag, speaking more languages than you can count, pointing excitedly at the merchandise on sale from stalls every 50 yards down every street. You eavesdrop on fragments of conversations about every tiny geeky corner of F1 fandom (best driver of the past decade to miss out on a championship? Coulthard? Webber? Montoya?). You see fans supporting the latest young rookie laughing with fans of Damon Hill still sporting Jordan caps with those eight white arrows on.
I wholeheartedly recommend going to Monaco, just once, just to see it. In my experience, tickets on the Rocher are a waste (unless you bring your own portable TV at least) but if grandstand tickets are out of your league, don’t worry. Get to Monaco, then go and watch the race from a bar. All the views you’d get from your TV at home, but the F1 festival right outside.
I have the good fortune to live a few hours’ drive away, so this year I’m going back and I’m taking my dad with me. I spent silly amounts on grandstand tickets for us. But I’m not going because I expect to see a great race, I’m going because every F1 fan ought to go once in their lifetime and he hasn’t been yet.
While I see your point, that is horrible logic when trying to support and grow a fan base.
I totally agree with you why Monaco is a bad race for TV, although it’s quite interesting hearing it’s a place you need to go in person.
Perhaps that’s a failing of the F1 broadcasters, that they can’t “capture the magic”! Maybe more interaction is needed on street level to show people all the character. Have an F1 forum just in the open with anyone gathering around to watch.
Aside from that I really believe more needs to be done to enhance the track. 1 simple thing I’ve thought would be good for years, is paint a white line round the Grand Hotel hairpin, to turn it into 2 lanes. Then ban cars from crossing the white line. So you either take the slower, tighter inside line, or go round the quicker outside line. Would stop incidents like Hamilton/Massa last year, where Massa went wide, but cut in tight to the corner. It was Hamilton’s fault, but how else can you overtake if the guy in front is blocking the whole road!
I went to Monaco in 2007 and have to totally agree with the “magic” point. And while I like the GPs in Spa I missed much more Montreal when it dropped out for a year than Spa when it missed the cut twice and the recent past.
“Why, why, why at the expense of Spa and not Valencia or Hungary?”
Because there are only three circuits with contracts up for renewal at the end of 2012 – Spa, Suzuka and Singapore. Of the three, Spa appears to be the only one willing to alternate with France. It’s all well and good to say that Spa should be protected and that the French Grand Prix should alternate with someone else, but if no-one else is willing, what choice to the French have but to come to an arrangement with the only circuit willing to alternate?
It looks as if these French elections could affect us in the UK other ways, as well as affecting F1. If the socialists win will this mean the end of the line for Sarkosy in terms of his/France’s concord with Angela Merkel? If so a socialist is likely to be less inclined to continue bailing out the sick countries of europe and allow a return to individual currencies. Community projects like circuits may get some government money, so in this case I reverse my natural instinct and root for the socialists.
(My ex-collegue lives in a cowshed in the mountains in France (Near St Martin de Belleville) and told me of a socialist land tax which threatened to wipe out half the family owned vineyards in the country)
All credit to you Joe, that’s one of the best summations of the French Presidential electoral system I’ve read. Brilliant, clear and straight-forward, like the rest of the your blog!
Merci
It’s curious, but here in France there isn’t really an appetite your F1, not in the same way you find in the UK. They prefer cycling frankly (and you are less likely to be knocked off you bike over here as, legally, one has to provide a decent gap if you overtake a bike with a car – a bit like the new overtaking rule in F1. But better. Bad luck Michael, you’d have to behave in France).
C’est la vie. Or, as Raymond Blanc would say, ‘Oh la la!’
sacriligious for anyone remotely interested in formula one to hear about Spa of all circuits not staging every year. It’s just not formula one without these crucial historical tracks: Spa, Monza, Monaco, Silverstone, Suzuka. Of all these Spa is the most special for me, though I guess a poll would return Monaco as the one track you can’t lose…..
And what will happen when the subject citizens of Monte Carlo rise up in democratic revolt against their monarch ? God help us from progress and democracy…
Not making a political point but a technical one. The Socialist M Hollande’s 75% income tax for “the wealthy” is nearly matched by the 74.8% tax imposed by the not so socialist UK coalition government for those earning between £100k-(approx) £115k.
For those baffled by numbers (and that is the whole idea I assume) that is a headline rate of 40% plus half as much again thanks to the phased 1 for 2 withdrawal of the tax personal allowance, add 12.8% employers national insurance and 2% employees national insurance. 40+20+12.8+2= 74.8%
Deliberately complicated so people don’t realise how much they are really fleeced in tax? I couldn’t possibly say.
What absolute tosh! If you are a higher rate taxpayer in the UK and you think you are paying a marginal rate of 74.8% then you need to change your accountant fast. I hear Barclay’s have some clever ones I’d give them a call if I were you!
OK, That is enough about taxation.
you’ve spectacularly failed to understand how it works there mate – to a pretty hilarious extent.
out stick neck
Sarko first a squeek ahead (and a win from ) Hollande.
H has baggage and a big mouth. As much as the people would like to believe him I think as the vote draws in most will be pragmatic as now is not the time to start muddying the Euro water as H says he wants to.
Le Penn is a problem, esp in the (ex) mining north and industrial heartland.
I’m not pro extreme right but would like to see her run H close just to shake the country up and (ungallant it may be) stick one to H.
Why can’t France just hold the French GP at Spa? Then it can be on the schedule every year.
Why did China build the Shanghai track when they could have just held their GP at Fuji?
A bit odd, F1 as a sport and therefore in the entertainment business is considering cutting by half one of its most exciting assets.
Thank you for the crisp account of the upcoming French elections. Doesn’t sound at all mystifying when explained that way.
The moronic so-called news people over here don’t even try to explain it, and likely couldn’t do so even if they did try. They mainly focus on being attractive when on TV… expensive haircuts, etc.
Maybe Sarkosy will go out with the riffraff, one could hope
Is this related to motor racing?
No but it made me feel better
Happy to have helped. Can we get back to F1 now?
Sarkozy has no particular allegiance to F1. He does have a love for everything shiney and money though. François Fillon (Sarkozy’s Prime Minister) is however an enthusiast race car driver / Grand Prix goer. Hollande is quite against the whole idea of F1 GP and has vocally said so on national radio. But to say this has any effect is misguided. The French circuits will get most their funding through the provinces (Region) and other administrative division (Departement and Commune) in which they are implanted. All regions are now left wing (apart from Alsace) and that will not change before quite a long time (next election is in 4 or 5 years).
Those regions have lost quite a bit of fire power since a law the present government has past which slightly abbated taxes on companies and vastly shifted the incomes of professional tax towards the state. And anyway, there is no rule that the left wing is against F1 and the right wing is pro F1. Both, especially at the Region level, will mostly care about how that will reflect on voters, on how there community can cope with the funding of such event and how it might increase their credentials on the national level. And the only way they will even think about funding a F1GP is if there are French drivers (Grosjean is a good start) and national enthusiasm… And private companies ready to sponsor the event and lessen the bill.
Plus some circuits are Region / State owned, some are private earned. Obviously, politics will have less to do for some of the circuits and more so to others (Hence Magny Cours vs Paul Ricard, but it could be extended to the Michelin cricuit, Albi and many others).
And just to clarify, Hollande’s proposal of 75% taxation is only for incomes of over 1M€. Because of the French way of calculating taxes, Your first 10 000€ income or so is not taxed, then up to 30 000 it’s around 15%, then 30% and above something I have not started earning yet, you are taxed at 40%. Then when you hit the million, every extra euro you earn would be taxed at 75%. So if you earn 1M€ a year, your income tax will be around 40%, and if you earn 2M€ a year, then yes, your income tax will be quite high. But then, who really cares. You probably will not die of hunger, and still can go to every F1 race of the year.
You have some funny ideas about what F1 journalists earn.
You completely missed the point of that last paragraph. If you had read it, you’d know its simply a description of Holland’s proposed tax system as opposed to a wild guess at your (or any other F1 journo’s) personal earnings.
One of the joys of doing too much, too quickly…
Hopefully though, a win for the socialists wouldn’t result in your imminent starvation Joe 🙂
To come back to the point of my comment : Thanks for a clear description of our voting system (though I had to point out an over simplification of Hollande’s latest propositions), but the elections to come are not the one which will change the future of F1 in France much. The local elections were of much more importance. And really, Grosjean doing well will help many times more than any personnal or political allegiances toward F1 of the men in power.
Well, the French GP project is being driven by Matignon, which is bullying the regions into agreeing (or not), so I think it can be said that the government is important in this respect.
I have to admit it follows an old French habit of meddling from the top (we call it “Fait du Roi”). I’m quite surprised it would have become a matter of much interest to Matignon, but I can see how that’s possible.
I believe there is a misunderstanding. As you might have guessed, I’m French and thus may have not been quite understandable. When I write “you” in my last paragraph, it should read as “anybody”.