Prior to the Belgian GP weekend there was an awful lot of Internet clutter about the F1 world. With everyone involved on holiday, the cut-and-paste monkeys had to dream up some stories on their own and in consequence everything got in a complete muddle with every top driver joining every other top team.
Having now had the chance to chat with some of the folk involved, this is my read on the situation. The real story is not Kimi Raikkonen, but rather Fernando Alonso. He’s fed up with the results at Ferrari and wants action. The only way he can get that, apart from shouting at them in five languages, is to threaten to leave. Ferrari don’t really believe he will depart, but they have to make contingency plans just in case he “does a Lewis” and defies the logic of the moment. The only obvious choice if Fernando goes is Kimi.
Time is ticking and tocking ever onwards and Fernando believes that he should perhaps have won more titles than he has. The problem he has is that the options are none too promising. One cannot imagine that he would want to be at Red Bull where Sebastian Vettel are planted under the desk. Fernando may suavely say that he does not mind who his team-mate is, but that is not strictly true. The toys still come out of the pram when he gets beaten. Mercedes is locked-down with Lewis and Nico and in any case one cannot really imagine a remake of that well known 2007 horror film “Lewis and Fernando damage McLaren”. McLaren is also not much of an option because they are just going into a cycle of interim years with new Mercedes customer engines in 2014, followed by new Hondas in 2015, so it is likely to be 2016 before the sowing will be reaped and Fernando is getting a bit old for that sort of thing. Lotus might be an option but Fernando will have heard the stories about Kimi not being paid on time. So, the reality is that Alonso will probably stay where he is and if that happens you can put money on Felipe staying on as his wing-man.
Kimi is happy where he is, but would be happier if he was paid in full. All he wants to know is that the team will have the money it needs to do the job properly, so his management may go around stirring up stories but the reasons he will stay where he is are much the same as those of Fernando. If Romain Grosjean continues to show good form there is again no real point in changing the line-up, particularly as the presence of Romain keeps Renault and Total happy.
And the one question that no-one seems to have asked: why would Kimi go to Ferrari if the Italian team Is in such a state that Fernando wants to leave? In the overall scheme of things Ferrari is not doing a bad job and is improving all the time, but the same problem remains: Red Bull is doing it better.
Red Bull, by the way, is taking Daniel Ricciardo. He is quick enough to get points but not really a threat to Saint Sebastian.
joeblogsf1 
Finally, some sense in the whole shebang.
I second that
Much as I was hoping for some Hollywood style moves on the driver market I think Joe is spot on. Teams and drivers have had some fun allowing the media to guess the most ludicrous changes, but the efforts have been focused on destabilising others. I guess the question remains as to the 2nd seat at Ferrari, Bianchi would be a gamble. Hulkenberg seems more likely. Massa retention would make very little sense to me.
Joe, you commented about the cancellation of the Wrrooom event before your break, do you think Philip Morris are reconsidering F1 involvement?
If (and I agree) Mclaren are facing a couple of interium years are they really the team for Jenson? He will likely be retiring in time for them challenging again.
Joe, I realise much of the Lotus of Sauber engine agreements, or lack thereof, for 2014 and beyond is due to current funding concerns, but do you think either team is gunning for Honda supply and attempting to minimise the length of new agreements?
I was told the other day that Wrooom is off, at the moment. The problem for Philip Morris is that with all the laws out there it has nowhere to spend all of its money. As regards engines I think there are more players in the game than we know.
To add to their problems the EU is to ban packets of 10 and menthol cigs.
What? Are you seriously telling me that the EU is going to put into place more anti-smoking legislation to eliminate sales of *smaller* packs of cigarettes? I mean, I can understand that menthols probably aren’t safer (although they smell less offensive to non-smokers, which as a non-smoker dating a girl who smokes menthols, I appreciate) but this appears to be legislation encouraging people to actually smoke more.
That said, we are talking about the EU, where black is white and white is negotiable.
It’s to make it harder for kids to be able to buy them, as smaller packets cost less and are more affordable on pocket money.
?….more players in the game than we know…..Interesting thought Joe. Do you have anything further to share, please?
No
Robert Kubica after his 5-th place in WRC (driving WRC2 of course 🙂 ), said that he don’t know if he will be in WRC or WRC2 next year, cause he also have good options in racing. Interesting ….
Sorry for posting in wrong thread 🙂
I’m actually quite happy for Ricciardo – as an Australian, it’s too rare that we get exposure in motorsport and hopefully he can inspire more people to try.
When we saw coverage of James Allen being told by Webber it was done; well, that was a special moment. But it seemed logical all along – not only for the reason you list Joe, but to justify the squillions spent on young drivers and to get someone with long term prospects there who can step up if Saint Sebastian (love this, btw) buggers off to another team.
Can we take it that the “JEV to Lotus” comments Brundle made never eventuated to a deal then? Assuming yes…
Been waiting for your comments, glad to see you back in harness.
I honestly hope DR is more than or the naysayers out there.
I believe that qualifying makes a huge difference on we’re you finish a race staring at the front makes life a lot easier.
I agree.
Could Fenando have signed an option with Red Bull for 2015? Much as he did with Mclaren in late 2005?
Re “2007 horror film “Lewis and Fernando damage McLaren”.
Lewis was totally innocent, it was alonso who publicly blackmailed the team with info he hoped to use himself unless they gave him an advantage, one he could use to beat Lewis, as he had just worked out that “Lewis is faster than you”. With his immense and fragile ego, plus an army of Nationalistic fans only interested in his winning, not competing, an attendant legion of new Spanish F1 journalists whose new livelihood depended on reporting the same, “great new Spanish hero conquers all against the odds” story… he panicked and turned nasty.
Backing up Lewis into Kimi deliberately at the Hungaroring, then blocking him in the pits said it all, likewise the spinning of the truth to make it look like Lewis had done something underhand, repeated 1001 times by Los Journalistas…
You also could look at the way he cynically put lives at risk staging the Crashgate “win” … claiming he “just obeyed orders” to come in, unquestioningly, while all his supporters claim he is “the most complete driver ever” [note, not fastest..] … amazing that such a genius should choose to blindly obey the strangest team order that day while he is always being credited with such an incredible attention to detail…
Lewis really didn’t want to be “#2” either, which is good. I remember Monaco 2007, Alonso was 1st, and Lewis stayed on his tail for so long, you could see his irritation after the race that the team dared to tell him to “stay in formation.”.
I suppose it was only fair to Kimi that McLaren finally gave him a title…
I doubt Alonso is thinking about going to other team, is just his way to make pressure, he is in Maranello all the time so probably he is watching things that he don’t like and this is his way to get any reaction from the team (my guess is that any chat behind closed doors is not working for him).
If you can’t drive a Red Bull car, the best place to be is Ferrari, and Alonso is already in Ferrari.
Is difficult to understand to be honest, Alonso sometimes is hard to read, I don’t think Alonso he will leave, but Massa will do, not only Ferrari needs a better second driver, Alonso does too, he will benefict from a stronget teammate.
Joe, can I put my money on Félix da Costa joining Toro Rosso then?
I think so.
Unless Marko has a change of heart, and picks Frijns, a driver who said his program treats drivers like dogs! It’ll be interesting to see how Felix da Costa does in F1.
Overall this piece seems to make sense, but I would question Massa staying on. Someone like Bianchi, Hulkenberg or Di Resta would seem to make more sense to give Ferrari a chance of the constructors championship.
I think Ferrari should be changing Alonso’s teammate too, not only for the constructors but to give Fernando more of a hurry-up. If he can’t win the championship (which is looking less and less likely) he has little motivation to push with Massa half a dozen places behind him.
Hulkenberg should be back up the sharp end of the grid. Or maybe McLaren are going to leave that option on JB a little too long? Same logic as for Fernando applies to him regarding McLaren’s transition years.
Agreed. I think Hülkenberg’s not-so-sideways move from Merc-powered Force India to Ferrari-powered Sauber always had that conclusion written in red.
I think Hülkenberg’s a good enough second driver for Ferrari and it’s the right stage of his career to fill that second seat. Bianchi’s certainly besting his team-mate but this is his first season in F1 and Ferrari never hire such inexperienced drivers into a race seat.
I’m still a little puzzled as to why Red Bull are so keen on Ricciardo and apparently not the slightest bit interested in JEV.
Joe
I’m interested in your opinion on Jenson Button. WIth all the talk about Ricciardo, Kimi and Alonso, little has been said about him, but as I understand it he is not locked in for next year and could go.
Ferrari came second in the WCC last year. This year, McLaren are no threat and yet Ferrari are third behind Mercedes, with Lotus not all that far behind them. They have got to be seriously rethinking the Massa thing this time, and if I were them I would want Button.
Or, will loyalty from LdM override it again?
He is locked in if the team wants him.
Any reason why the team might get someone else? I guess with Jenson they have a known entity, although he’s arguably not as top as Lewis, Vettel or Fernando. IMO, it would be crazy risky if they got an unknown to replace him, but hey, if you’re afraid of risks why are you in F1.
I think you’re selling Ricciardo short Joe. Guess we’ll see next year.
So it would seem everyone would stay put at their teams – a slightly disappointing outcome for those of us who want to see change, but an understandable outcome nevertheless.
A couple questions for you Joe if you don’t mind:
1. Is Ferrari not under pressure to find a stronger #2 driver than Massa, for WCC purposes? Looking at the points tables they are at the moment behind Mercedes despite the fact Alonso is outscoring Hamilton, because of Rosberg outscoring Massa, having won 2 races himself. I would think they’d be tempted to finally go for someone else there? Wouldn’t Hulkenberg be a nice compromise between a potentially stronger driver and a name not too big to annoy Alonso?
2. Is it impossible Ferrari’s trying to get Kimi to replace Massa as a #2, and this is what sparked Alonso’s recent bursts of annoyance in the first place? I have read a lot of theories along these lines, and there’s a couple Finnish journos who swear for their mother’s souls that Kimi has already signed a Ferrari contract, irrespective of what happens to Alonso. Is this all fiction?
I think Kimi would actually consider a move back to Ferrari for 2 reasons: he likes to be paid on time, and with the new regulations odds are a better funded team like Ferrari will outperform Lotus again.
3. Button has recently come out and said he’s not under contract for next year. I certainly didn’t see that coming and it struck me as quite odd. What do you make of that? Button offering himself to Red Bull or Ferrari? Unmotivated for the transitional years coming next for McLaren? I’ve read theories he’s considering retirement!
I have my fingers crossed that you’re wrong about Ricciardo, Joe. Red Bull must have a pretty solid idea that he is going to be very very close to SV – they want to score 1sts & 2nds whenever possible, not just have a rear gunner, surely? As a team, their name and the constructors’ championship must be more important to them than SV and his happiness, ultimately.
I’d love to see the 2014 horror film ‘Dan & Seb stir up Red Bull’. After all, I can’t imagine that McLaren saw the Lewis/Fernando situation coming.
Like many I’m a bit puzzled about what Red Bull see in Ricciardo – others in the grid seem more qualified for the seat. I think it must be a combination of Red Bull needing to show there is an actual link to their top team from the whole junior programme, and secondly I suspect they would actually be quite happy with a competent rear gunner. If you can build cars so much better than the rest of the field, why destabilise the whole team with two fighting drivers? Even upping his scores slightly from what Mark has been achieving of late would be enough to comfortably rack up yet more constructors’ titles.
Ferrari used the same template in their Schumi/Todt days. I’d much rather see a real fight at the front, but it very rarely happens, and you can see why.
One finnish “unnamed” internet page claims and is very sure that Kimi has already written a contract with Ferrari. They claim, he has made it already at 1.8.
What do you think, is that load of rubbish ??
Sums it up well
I wonder if Ricciardo’s launch control will magicly come good when Mark is gone?
Joe,
A minor point I know but whats the 5th language Fernando speaks, English, Italian, Spanish, French and????
It was a joke.
Maybe Fernando is learning Austrian (a.k.a. German) for 2015?
#5 is Industrial Language (aka Anglo-Saxon, as used by my Dad when he dropped a solid object on his foot one day).
Asturian, I guess.
Samurai
Probably Portuguese just to wind up Massa.
Joe, if hulkenberg moves to ferrari, could we see massa reunited with sauber? Personally, i think a massa bianchi partnership at sauber with russian guy as development/reserve/test driver makes a lot of sense. Guttierez has underperformed and hulkenerg moves up to ferrari!
Possible?
I doubt it
What happens if Ferrari is spooked by the possible though of Fernando actually leaving, doing a Lewis, as you mention to EnStone.
You did mention that Renault are looking for more exposure, and could in theory become the title sponsor of the team, or could even take it over, thereby Fernando going back home, so to speak. He could also bring with him that Spanish Bank, as a sponsor.
There are many downsides to all of this. What about that massive black hole at Enstone, plus do they have the skill set after James Allison left them for Ferrari, to do the job. Still worried about the Loan to Proton and the charge it has over all the equipment at the Factory. Needs to be paid off very soon.
Also why would Kimi want to go to Ferrari, if they are not performing that well with Fernando there now? Yes they do have a new design team taking shape, but is the power plant any good?
Thanks for that… sensible and to the point as usual… a perfect example of why so many come here…
Question: Can you help me better understand why Massa is a shoo-in if Alonzo stays?
(I like Massa, I love it when he does well. But if I was running Ferrari (ha ha), I would want more points out of #2. Is it unfair to say that Massa is one big reason why Ferrari might not finish ahead of Lotus in the Constructor’s race? Or am I missing something.)
Because he is a number two who does not threaten the number one.
Were I a driver for one of the top teams I’d be scared to death to make the switch prior to seeing whose new engine is better than who else’s. Even with his understandable frustration, Alonso should sit tight and see how it all plays out.
Because it too is probably a crap shot, nobody including the designers REALLY know what engine is good, ok, fuel efficient, etc. Plus the Honda wrench will arrive right as everyone thinks they understand the motors.
Well we all know the landscape of the top drivers However, Joe what driver is being discussed in the paddock as someone who is going to threaten the big dog.
Fashions come and go in this respect.
Point taken.
It seems that everyone (drivers and owners) is keeping as many options open as possible in the short term. New engines next year and new engine maufacturers the year after that can flip things around quickly. The drivers will stick with the big money in the medium term but scream loudly now to maintain or create options. Should be an interesting few seasons
Have you heard anything about where Maldonado might end up. I have heard rumors of him going to Lotus. Or will PDVSA continue to bankroll Williams.
He can goof he wants but contractually he cannot race anywhere else unless Williams is paid.
My understanding of the Williams and Venezuelan funding is that Maldonado and it are tied together for the first number of years. Which means Williams have to take Maldonado, but after a set period of time, then Williams has the option of replacing Maladaona if they feel he is not performing? That could be the very small reason, in which we heard Maladaon stated that he wanted to stay at Williams.
So in theory Maldonado could leave Williams, but the sponsorship – funding stays in place. I have also heard that Williams has some additional new sponsors coming onboard for 2014. That should help the team, but they still need that one magic ingredient a visionary designer to work alongside that big bad shark Pat Symonds. Then I think we will see movement, up wards from Williams.
“One cannot imagine that he would want to be at Red Bull where Sebastian Vettel are planted under the desk.”
I know that this is a typo, but I can’t help imagining a Sebastian Vettel flower and a whole bed of them under someone’s desk looking up and pointing their little leafy fingers.
Joe
Nobody in the same car is a threat to Saint Sebastian
This is the million dollar question, really. The only thing we know about Vettel is that he’s faster than Mark Webber. You can certainly hypothesize that several other drivers (Lewis, Kimi and my boy, Alonso, to name three) could have also won multiple championships driving this iteration of Red Bulls.
That said, a bird in the hand, etc…, and Vettel is in possession of the trophies. So good on him. But it seems to me the question about Vettel’s greatness won’t be answered until he either untethers himself from Adrian Newey or finds a teammate that can really push him.
I’m not a big Hamilton fan, but I admire the balls it took to make the Mercedes jump. It would be fun to see Vettel do the same.
By “Internet clutter” I take it that you are meaning Autosport because it was the site that was keeping on churning news stories about the possibility of first Alonso to Red Bull and then Kimi to Ferrari…
No, I am referring to Internet clutter. You may not have noticed but there are thousands of F1 websites all pretending to be real. A lot of them are run by wannabes, or neverwillbes.
I’m really hoping that Ricciardo surprises a few people next year. I honestly thought Vergne was going to wipe the floor with him at Torro Rosso but they’ve been well matched.
The one thing that really impresses me about Ricciardo is that he is a clean racer (as is Vergne). He doesn’t get into silly scraps like we saw with Maldonado and the Force India’s at Spa and his qualifying pace looks good.
If in a few years, Ricciardo is a solid top 5 driver and Vergne out of F1, well then, a bird in the hand really applies! For RB, Ricciardo is seemingly what they want – secure second driver, will pressure Seb to consistent top performances, excellent PR, fits the marketing profile, continued Australian presence. Exactly the same as Webber, but the cynical frown is turned into a PR ready smile.
JEV would do well to keep Alguersuari in mind – don’t turn down offers from teams such as Lotus, for a Red Bull chance. A bird in the hand has never applied more-so! I can’t see RB replacing Ricciardo with Vergne after a year or two, even if DR isn’t close enough to Vettel and Vergne makes more progress from this year. JEV seems to do well in the race, akin to Prost, so I wonder if he will do well with the 2014 formula. Same for Button, Perez, di Resta…
Not that it’s the place but we are discussing Drivers getting better and being ready for top seats except the really quick guys are ready from the get go – (MS and Lewis etc) but it’s so nice to Lewis finally growing up from that little lost soul at Monaco doing a fashion shoot many years ago while Jenson just oozed a calm and relaxed style – Mercedes has been really good for him.
How Ferrari can’t take the Hulk is beyond me as Massa is a guaranteed poor showing for only the max of another 1 year whereas the Hulk can give you possibilities for the future as well.
Joe … you haven’t said where you think Nico maybe next year ??
Unlike everyone else I have no idea. It is far too early to guess such things when the top drives are not yet sorted.
I note that Whitmarash is quoted elsewhere as saying that, as McLaren haven’t done a good car job this year, Jenson and Sergio ‘deserve another go.’ Am I reading too much into that, or is it decidedly equivocal?