Bernie Ecclestone knows how to manipulate the media. It is not hard in most cases and he knows just how to tickle a journalistic ego. If these folk are stupid enough to think that they matter because he talks to them and they do not question what he says, then he gets the benefit of their self-importance while they erode their credibility in the industry and become seen as being monkeys who dance as Bernie grinds the organ.
Good for him.
Bernie never says anything without a reason to say it, and very often the reason is not at all what it appears to be. Mr E is an expert at diversionary tactics. If he wants to play something down, he will create a bigger story about something else. His chattering about the two planned races in the United States being on or off keeps both of these events in the newspapers and, at the same time, keeps the race promoters on their toes. That is not a bad idea. It also keeps attention away from other things he may be doing in the US, as the plans for F1’s invasion of the Americas continues to develop.
The latest I am hearing on this, by the way, is that Mexico is increasingly likely to happen, but Argentina is not going to be possible in 2013 – if at all. The Argentine economy has been tanking seriously in recent months. The latest projections are that the economy will slow from last year’s nine percent growth to 2.2 percent this year – and that comes from the World Bank. Others say that is too optimistic and that Argentina could be in recession by the end of the year. This is odd in that the country has many factors that should be creating economic growth and some argue that the crisis is a political one because the populist leader Cristina Fernández de Kirchner has been spending so much money subsidising things to make herself popular.
One former minister estimates that the handouts have gone from $1.2 billion in 2005, to $19 billion in 2011, but she continues to spend, hoping to create jobs while printing more money at the same time, which has led to spectacular inflation. There are signs of escalating protest from people (and unions) demanding higher wages and those with money are flocking to the relative security of the US dollar, which are once again being traded on the streets in Buenos Aires. The cynics say that Kirchner is looking for things to distract her countrymen, so a Grand Prix seemed liked a good idea and complaining loudly about the Falkland Islands (as she has been doing in recent weeks) is always popular.
When it comes to New Jersey, the promoters may be a little behind on their payments, but it is actually in the interest of F1 to turn a blind eye to that. Bernie has been trying to get into New York for more than 30 years and so to quibble over a million here or a million there would be cutting off his nose to spite his face. One might even say it is a rare situation in which F1 needs the race more than the race needs F1. I am sure that if the New Jersey race happens it will be a huge success and that will kick-start F1 growth in the US, pushing the sport into a more mainstream awareness. It is a good time to do it. IndyCar racing is struggling on a number of different levels, people are bored with NASCAR, although Dale Earnhardt junior’s recent victory, the first in four years, has worked wonders in the last few days.
Sebastian Vettel went around the planned track recently and said that “it would be great” if everything can be done in time. There is no real reason to suggest that it cannot be. And it is in everyone’s interest that it is.
joeblogsf1 
I’ve just come back from two weeks in America, and got chatting to two people from New Jersey – they’d not heard of it.
Everybody seems blissfully unaware of Austin as well, and there was no mention of Monaco in the Washington Post on the Monday after the race.
Joe do you think this race in New Jersey will happen? You’re not the only person who has pointed out that Eclestone’s was contradicting to the BBC. Is it definitely not in 2013 or is is it OK if the track is ready? I agree that they should interrogate him to find this out precisely but I don’t think they need him to tickle their egos because they have the cameras to do that 🙂
History says that “bread and circusses” will only work for so long so i’d agree Mexico woudl be more likely especially with Perez becoming a proven racer and maldanado being (love or hate him) a constant figure in headlines. Although where is the Moles take on this?
Joe said in a recent-ish comment that, sadly, The Mole is currently too busy to write anything until after the end of the season.
Cheers Ambient sheep i must have missed that! i expect he’s investigating something nefarious in a glamourous location with the Penelopes in bikini’s and thigh gun holsters (this may have just been a dream i had though)
Mauritius 😉
Reblogged this on F1 Goggles and commented:
Incredible insight into Bernie through the eyes of Joe Saward. Please follow his blog if you are not following. Well worth the read.
Joe during your Audience in Montreal, you mentioned the name of the gentleman.developer that owns that 2.x miles of New Jersey land on which the track is to be layed out. I don’t quite recall his name, who was it?
Also, second question, is it not in the best interest of the developer to ensure the promoters don’t mess this up? Primarily for what it might do for the real-estate value and world exposure.
Anyone reading this, if you’ve every considered going to any of the Audience With Joe events, I highly recommend it. I promise you, it is well worth the time and money for an evening you won’t soon forget.
That would be Arthur Imperatore, Sr.
Can anyone imagine Vettel doing a big drinks company “promotion” complete with Nissan cars and say publicly the as yet invisible NJ circuit is nonsense?
I have my doubts that the NJ race will actually happen. Maybe it’s the cynic in me, but the challenge of having to close public roads for three days in this major metropolitan area (probably four days while officials install barriers, etc.) in addition to the financial issues and the logistics of dealing with multiple municipalities, permits, red tape etc. It looks like a potentially good course, but I would be (pleasantly) surprised if it actually happens as planned.
Well, the same thing works in Singapore doesn’t it?
What challenge is there in putting some barriers up? If the politicians decide it happens and Bernie lets them, it will happen.
People will complain about the noise and travel time regardless, so it’s just a case of seeing if it works. If it falls over spectacularly, then they can review procedures for the next year.
I side with Mark in doubting the thing will ever happen. The governor of New Jersey is militantly committed to deficit reduction, so there is likely zero money coming from the state, and the town (?) itself is a financial non-entity when it comes to dollar figures this large. The cost of putting these things on is often discussed here, and it’s generally agreed that it’s cost-effective in situations where a region can benefit from exposure, good pr, expanded tourism, etc. None of this applies here (see discussion of London GP). The only rationale left is that the developer had deep enough pockets to pull the whole thing off on his own and, if he does so, can predict an eventual significant return on his investment. I don’t believe he has THAT much money, and I don’t believe the upside of property values in that part of the region will EVER justify this kind of expense.
I can’t help but laugh at this line from Wikipedia: “…The circuit will then follow Boulevard East north to Donnelly Memorial Park where it will turn right and descend Hillside Avenue to a hairpin turn adjacent to the West New York sewage treatment plant.”
Casino Square this ain’t.
I understand that a large part of Argentina’s slowdown is due to the Chinese economy, which has of course affected all the major world mining/commodity based economies. The Baltic dry index is down 31% on an MAT against last year and 41% down YTD. Until this index is showing a steady climb we can forget recovery for China and those countries that rely upon the supply of its raw materials for a major part of their GDP.
If interested, http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND Thus Cristina is getting increasingly uppity about the Falklands, this may be aggravated by the fact that Rockhopper found oil on one of it’s exploratory spuddings.
There are three other directly involved companies looking for oil to the north and south of the Falklands under British licences, thus it is fairly certain that oil may be extracted at some point though there are a number of technical and logistical problems to be overcome. (I am particularly aware of ~Rockhopper since it hit my stop the day before oil was found :-()
The main news one sees of Mexico nowadays it that it is engaged in open warfare with drug cartels on a scale to rival Columbia and battles are frequently played out on the streets. However it may be the “Bahrain effect” and it may be as safe as Brazil to walk around the streets. A new spec of tyres may be needed as the current ones will have melted in the pits.
Good old Bernie here we are talking of the Americas instead of the court in Germany, you have to hand it to him!
Don’t know if Bernie thinks the F1 marketing machine should work the same in the US as here in Europe but if he does then I think that would be the biggest blunder in his career as FOM boss. The marketing machine almost solely relies on the work of journalist, for example Joe, to write about F1 and make people aware of F1. In the us mainstream and sport journalist don’t think F1 is that interesting to write about, it certainly isn’t front page material to them, so to me it seems the US needs a different marketing strategy.
Unfortunately from what I’ve read on several fora and sport news websites Bernie seems to be doing just that. The guys that post on those fora or comment on F1 articles all seem to indicate that there is no advertisement for either Austin or New Jersey. And a lot of those posters have friends that like to visit sporting events but are not racing fans and almost none of those know of these events (only die hard F1 fans seem to know about Austin and New Jersey and even what they know about those events is limited). I’m afraid the two events will be smaller then everybody seems to indicate just for the lack of advertisement.
(But then again I could have a biased view because of the sources I’ve used to come to this conclusion. I certainly hope that is the case because just looking at the designs of either the Austin or the New Jersey tracks it seems to me that both should be an instant hit with the fans and the drivers)
At least Austin is known enough to a point that there are no more hotel rooms available. Per my friend who canned his plan to attend. How that relates to ticket sales, I do not know. Hope they find enough local interest to fill the seats (though I doubt it). I do question putting the race in a location that does not have sufficient hotel capacity. The most interest in F1 in the US is from people who live on one of the other coast (and frankly have European or Asian background).
I thought the way Bernie handled “investigative journalist” Tom Bower was a wonderful lesson in strategic diplomacy. “No Angel: The Secret Life of Bernie Ecclestone”. Probably the worst F1 book ever written.
It’s good to see Argentina fighting back after rejecting the IMF Mafia’s “help”.
It will take time, and a few austerity cycles, but they will get there.
I discovered today, the French WWI Nieuport and Spad ace, Charles Nungesser, raced motor cars in Argentina, but I can’t find any details.
After swatting Huns out of the skies Nungesser disappeared, lost at sea whilst attempting to fly the Atlantic East to West: Just two weeks before a skinny American kid soloed the Atlantic West to East.
Is it time for a new book on the French playboy hero, Joe?
Lots of fighter pilots became car racers.
Or vice versa. Eddie Rickenbacker raced in the Indianapolis 500 four times and later became America’s leading fighter pilot in World War I. He felt race drivers would make good pilots as both were accustomed to tight places and high speeds. He owned the Indianapolis Motor Speedway from 1927 to 1945 and helped make it America’s top race track.
Not vice versa Sir; Charles Nungesser was a mechanic and racing cars in Argentina before he ever became a pilot.
There’s so much red tape in the US of A that things move at the pace of continental drift.
I took hours just to get through customs, it’s not a welcoming country.
Both NY/NJ and Austin are behind schedule, but there have been numerous GPs where the paint was still wet as the cars were lining up on the grid.
Have you considered the possibility that F1’s image is better served by association with slow-moving democracies rather than totalitarian dictatorships that are more efficient?
Ouch!
But a nice strike Sir!
Well, Karen et. al? …..
Some slow moving ‘democracies’ have far worse human rights records than some ‘totalitarian’ dictatorships … They also have a better propaganda machine.
Agreed Karen, so that’s Texas, Turkey, Malaysia, South Korea, and Singapore struck out, and Pyongyang here we come?
Seriously though, Karen, we all know there’s only one aspect of the deal that matters to Lord Biggin, it’s silly to pretend otherwise.
He doesn’t give a hoot what the Leaders do as long as their cheques don’t bounce.
I tend to think that Bernie would go for the dictatorship, his past remarks indicate that direction.
I would not go as far as to say Austin is behind schedule. They have been moving at a blinding pace here to be completely fair, karen. You should be happy to know that the City is considering building a temporary customs and charter flight facility at the airport here just in time for the race (which of course angers the opponents here). Some of the logical folks here see that as something that will be put to good use in our city.
Anyway, just thought I would share.
(The NJ promoters have stated that everything has been on time and correct on their end.)
The NJ event should be a huge success – a slam dunk without even trying. But to be a ratings success is an entirely different matter. It will take multiple years of success before the event can even be considered a beachhead for F1 in the U.S.
NASCAR, I have come to learn, is way better and way smarter than the folks running F1.
Don’t give Indycar a second thought. They aren’t anyone’s competition anymore.
I would have to say quite the opposite when it comes to NASCAR and Indycar over here. Indycar is finally back, more visible on TV thanks to NBC and the new formula giving us some really decent racing. NASCAR is what it is, a VERY well oiled media machine. The TV coverage would blow any F1 fan’s mind.
I’m gonna say it again…..Put an American in the Ferrari #2 seat and the US will wake up to F1….there would be major headlines every weekend, hell it would make the cover of Sports Illustrated.
I fear that your grasp of reality vis-a-vis IndyCar is rather less than tenuous…
I can understand your opinion on Indycar, but what about my comment about the power of a American Ferrari driver?
When there is one good enough, I am sure Ferrari will hire him (or her).
Americans have driven for Ferrari in the past;
Phil Hill won the WDC for Ferrari in 1961.
Mario Andretti won his first race for Ferrari in 1971.
And Eddie Cheever tested and signed to drive for Ferrari in 1976 and 7, but crushed his hand, and was replaced by Carlos Reutemann.
There must be more I’ve missed?
Indycar is on NBC Sports, not NBC and not free to air
Not sure if that’s so relevant. If with free to air you mean just putting those bunny ears on top of your TV and being able to watch, then that’s one thing. You would not be able to catch much of anything that way.
Most people have cable (or dish), and at least in SF Bay NBC sports is part of the basic package, I believe (Speed isn’t). It’s not like Indycar is pay-per-view.
Joe,
What do you think Montreal’s long-term prospects are if New Jersey, Austin, Mexico City, and Long Beach/Belle Isle/somewhere else all occur?
Hopefully it doesn’t become another Spa, a great racetrack with a great atmosphere that produces interesting races and that the teams love to go to — and that is allowed to fall off the calendar…
Spa’s position is only tenuous for financial reasons. If Canada can keep paying for the race (and its facilities don’t fall over too much), I doubt Bernie would drop it because it’s a firm favourite with almost everyone.
I was watching the F1 race this weekend thinking “this is great its like the good’old days of IndyCar without the SafetyCar every ten laps”. I think the current F1 formula will be a hit with the Americans in NewYork.
Argentina introduced new import restrictions last year. Basically you can only import goods into the country if you export the equal amount. EU is challenging these new regulations in the World Trade Organization.
The whole thing has created crazy behavior. For example copmpanies importing high tech stuff (that is not manufactured in Argentina at all) have purchased fish factories to have something to export in order to meet the requirements. Or smaller companies simply bribe the customs officers to look the other way.
However, as a consequence the amount of imports have plummeted at least in some categories. All of which in my opinion has not helped the economy, even if the intention was the opposite.
Can they not just have a gp in the falkslands and claim it as both the argentinian gp and the second british gp ???
It could be a circuit with some interesting elevation changes!
People are bored with Nascar? Really? How do you justify that? Attendances are up, if look at last season the TV channels saw increased viewers and in the Michigan race TNT saw a 10% increase in viewers which when you consider that their coverage was awful is surprising.
Have another look at the numbers
the numbers for the first 13 NASCAR races on FOX (an “Over the Air: VHF network, courtesy of jayski.com, the link to source for all things NASCAR (if you must).
2009 5.1/11 8.6 million people
2010 4.8/10 7.9 million people
2011 5.0/11 8.6 million people
2012 4.9/10 8.1 million people
the next batch of races on TNT (cable) tend to run about 3.3/7 5 million people with a similar pattern.
so depending on how you massage the numbers, NASCAR viewership is either down from last year or three years ago or up from two years ago. Or I prefer to think of it as a steady 5.0 (percentage all tv sets with the second number being what the actual viewing audience is watching) 8.1 million.
In contrast an IndyCar race on ABC (another VHF network) might get a 1.0 for any non Indianapolis 500 race if it is lucky (not often). An F1 race on the cable network Speed might have about 350,000 fans *start times of 8AM on the East Coast/5AM on the West on Sunday morning don’t help and the 1 live 3 tape delay races they put of FOX (which owns Speed) might draw about 1 million viewers (from what I remember from looking up last year, can’t find any numbers for this years race at Canada or Valencia).
You could also see that in the UK, the last indycar race (shown at prime time)
Got only 3k viewers, even moto3 (3rd tier support race for motogp) got 87k viewers.
The current F1 Ferrari may be ugly, but it will never match the “Car of Tomorrow”–the new, safer NASCAR model they introduced several years ago, and the ugliest racing machine I’ve ever seen. I always thought the previous car was quite beautiful in a brutish sort of way. It was a significant miss-step for NASCAR and they took a hit for it.
Meanwhile, the world waits for Juan-Pablo to win an oval race.
No offense, but I think you’re over-estimating the potential for widespread appeal of F1 in the U.S. If you mean tapping more into U.S. companies for sponsorship money, then maybe. But, if you’re talking about new fans…I personally think it’s unlikely on any kind of major scale.
The U.S. sports market is saturated. And, this saturation is with sports that are played once or more a week during their respective seasons. Formula One will have one or two races all year in the U.S. I just don’t see how that competes with the NFL, MLB, NBA, NCAA, etc. that are much more accessible. I’m also suspicious that U.S. companies will be interested in investing a lot of money into F1 for the same reason.
Another big reason: xenophobia. Americans seem to need American teams and drivers to get interested.
I’d love it if F1 was more popular in the U.S., but I have a hard time seeing it happen.
I guess if the interest is there, there’s a chance of another US F1. There’s also Alex Rossi at Caterham.
Grass roots etc.
I also think our circus is too arrogant or cheap to spend the real serious bucks required to promote. Big place, you need to hit the ground hard to be heard.
Seb on Letterman was a riot, but we need Joe on Oprah*, and wall to wall nationwide campaigns, Rush paid to go out on full cinema release, not limited release, the Senna movie on FTA, a prominent biz author in the HBR discussing the problems of breaking the motorsports market, picked up by the innumerable biz blogs who no doubt will ask “WTF do these limeys and frenchies think they’re doing?”. ** I’d go so far as get a digest of all the best tech / engineering articles sent out to every tech firm on a controlled list, by name. Oh, and a few stunts like swapping commentators from other motorsports would be amusing. Or pay Letterman to anchor a commentary. Or Leno, another petrol head.
You have to pay for this, and it’s not cheap.
Also you have to reverse the sponsor – promotion setup. Think Intel subsidising e.g. Dell’s ad campaigns for prominent mention. Stop thinking it’s merely a privilege for sponsors to be associated, actively help them reach out.
Question Karen might be able to answer: Who is the big name agency hired to promote F1 in the US?
* Might be engineered if someone put up a performance bond and a studio at least said they were looking at it. Curses I am not rich enough, because I know just the pitch man.
** Being slagged off by most of those blogs, like Business Insider is great, since they’re usually taken with a big pinch of salt, so the effect reverses.
Oprah?
Can you imagine what your sales would be if she put you in her book club?!
Hey, I’m available… anyone know Oprah?
How many books does being on Oprah sell??!!
Oops, missed Wisemaker beating me to the punch, sorry fella!
I do in fact have a contact who knows that game. Requires F1 grade lubrication . .
anyhow, better than being on Martha Stewart . . ?
http://www.usatoday.com/life/books/news/story/2012-06-01/oprah-book-club-20/55335544/1
“The result: an astonishing ability to sell books. Fordham University marketing professor Al Greco estimates that sales of “Oprah editions” of the 70 titles in her original book club total about 55 million copies.”
More than being on Richard and Judy’s! 🙂
Oh, yeah, and Bernie on Sesame Street. Imagine the possibilities!
He has the haircut already!
I have concerns about the long-term plan in NJ. The race really doesn’t benefit NJ at all. Much more benefit to NYC and ultimately I can’t see provate investor footing the bill forever. Even on the BBC they’re saying how exciting the race in NY will be. Ultimately that race will need government support and it’s hard to understand why they would get it
Monaco is doing just fine. Why not Jersey?
Monaco is a tax haven and pays, by Bernie’s standards, only a small handful of loose change for it’s fee.
With the USA having several native series of their own it may be necessary for Bernie to put his hand in his/FOM’s pocket and actually do some promotion. Though as I write I remember that The Texans are having to build extra stands to cope with the ticket sales. But I cannot see the NewYorkers (New Yorkians?) with their famous “so what?” attitude, paying any attention so some foreign rich big shots coming over and screwing up the traffic in the city with their race.
You obviously have not looked at how the race will be organised. There is no potential for traffic at all. This is a public transport race, with trains and ferries.
Sorry, I thought it was on public streets as per the Vettel and DC/Lee Mackenzie drive arounds.
Well Monaco has the support of the principality (not to mention the history, glamor and money). I assumed the principality paid for the event too. Even if there’s a backbone of support
They don’t have a sanctioning fee to pay. At least that is what I have been told. I am sure Joe can correct me if it is otherwise.
F1 will be a huge success in America wherever it’s held if it’s done properly. Austin may be too hot a venue and Jersey won’t have much grandstand space but I imagine they’d both succeed financially.
There are plenty of fans however so there’s no danger of lack of interest.
Top marks on the latest online magazine Joe!
Austin weather in November is nothing short of grand!
Of course you are entitled to your opinion, but I beg to disagree about your view of the status of IndyCar racing. IndyCar is currently undergoing a renaissance due to a new car, full grids, and leadership who listen to the paying customers. The Indy 500 was one of the best in years, with the outcome in doubt until after the start of the final lap. The engine technology is much more relevant than what you see in F1, and the lower costs of running a team provides a better value. Don’t get me wrong, F-1 my favorite category of motor spots, but IndyCar is up there. Ask Rubens how much fun he is having. I know that all is not a bed of roses. The television coverage is not what it should be, and teams are always looking for more sponsorship; but to do what they have done in the current economic climate is nothing short of miraculous.
IMO the cars look horrible (it’s like another ALMS), sound horrible and the racing hasn’t improved one bit. Maybe on ovals, but still can’t sit through an oval race without fast forwarding…
There was also a small story involving Bernie, a banker and a bribe. That was neatly relegated to yesterday’s news thanks to his comments on the New Jersey race…
You always need to watch both his hands, like Penn and Teller it may need more than one of you to watch.
Never afraid to dish out a subtle (or not so) dig to those ‘other’ journos are you Joe… Good on you. Excellent post, as usual!
What are you referring to, Joe? Is it the BBC interview Ecclestone gave in relation to the New Jersey race or do I have to venture to some newspaper website? To be honest, in the BBC interview Ecclestone just seemed to contradict himself in the space of one breath and Lee McKenzie looked like she simply couldn’t be bothered pursuing it any further, as she wouldn’t have got anything more out of him anyway. It may have been some masterful triple bluff but to all the world it looked like a doddery old man blinking myopically in the sunlight. I don’t think anyone at the BBC took it at face value despite the article on their site later. That was surely just a filler article. It was certainly something of a non issue on the live show.
Underestimate Bernie at your peril
I accept that, and I accept that Bernie isn’t really a doddering old man. I’m just curious as to what sections of the media you are referring. The BBC didn’t make much of it, therefore I’m assuming there are more article that I’ve not read and for the sake of completeness I’d like to read them!
There are a couple of journos that Bernie uses to launch rumours.
Is Sylt one of them?
Sylt? Is he an F1 journalist?
I checked the Daily Telegraph (?) but couldn’t see anything related, though I might be mixing up my newspapers! Keep up the good work anyway, always an enjoyable read.
Yawn… BE’s style doesn’t fool me and I don’t suppose he really fools most serious journalists truth be known. Without a serious spokesman, or woman, he will never be taken seriously by anyone with half a brain. I disagree with you on that point Joe – it’s just not funny and I would say ‘bad for him’ actually.
Sure, there may be plenty of journalists who seem to fall for his every word, but do they actually? They have fill their columns somehow to earn a crust. Business is business after all – speculation sells newspapers, traffics the web sites, sells the ads.
Anyone who eventually takes over his role would do well to adopt a more professional to media relations because at the moment his ‘back street car dealer’ style is a throw-back to a darker age in F1 management, an attitude that I find, as a fan, personally insulting.
Anyone who takes over will do as you say and it will mean more blablabla and about the same level of useful information. People who underestimate Bernie don’t last long in F1… Ask Adam Parr!
Ryan McGee of ESPN yesterday pointed out how it was a typical jerk move by Bernie to schedule the Austin race on the same weekend that NASCAR will finish its season in Florida. Virtually all of the American motorsports media will be at Homestead. Kind of gives Bernie another chance to say “See, America doesn’t want F1” and a bad way to treat the Austin track people. Not quite sure about that, you couldn’t really have it in mid June Texas heat if you try to bookend with Montreal. Not sure about your comments about people being bored with NASCAR. A great “playoff race” last year between Stewart and Edwards (I refuse to call it a Chase), Dale Jr’s reemergence, Danica switching over to part time Cup with full time next year, improvements in tracks like Pocono to make the racing better, improved twitter system. The France family does try to listen to what its fans want.
But to make it in New York, the F1 people will have to work at it. They can not just walk in and figure everyone will bow before them. Top athletes like Mike Piazza and Alex Rodriguez, entertainers like James Brown have found their accomplishments elsewhere do not mean horse spit in the Big Apple. If they don’t work at making New Yorkers want to go, they will quickly get told to get out and go make “Talledega Morning After The Nights Part II”.
And Ryan Whatever is an expert on F1 because… ???
Hmm… that is an argument ad hominem, Joe. Or is it a argument ad authoritatem? Isn’t it important WHAT someone says instead of WHOM says it?
And all of American motorsports media will be in Homestead… why? Is the return of the USGP not a trump card? I can’t imagine Bernie is attempting to stage a race in a huge market in an attempt to prove it to be a failure. That sounds stupid. And having it on the same day as the season finish is brilliant if you ask me. More eyeballs on the TV for motorsport in the US.
I used to be a fan of NASCAR. So did my dad. Hence the name. But I got to say… it is nothing short of a joke now. And F1 has always been more entertaining anyway.
2.2% GDP growth is where Europe has been, give or take for very a long time. But it is not where a economy growing its middle class quickly should be. Maybe – talking about Argentina here – they hit a limit. Anyone know how things really are down there? I read BA has been transformed.
Corollary is sure you have silly growth when you transform a rural population, But see John Hempton’s excellent essay on Chinese kleptocrasy. The UK has been doing something not far dissimilar for a long time, making it impossible for regular guys to save, fuelling a property boom and causing hardship and worry unconducive to enterprise.
10% annual inflation for the circuits is insane. It may reflect Bernie’s sceptical view of cash currency devaluation, one I share, but it also means forward valuations of 1/3rd of group income are very very high. This one figure inclines me to worry about a collapse, more than any other factor in F1.
The strange thing is how well the ad market is surviving, another roughly 1/3rd of group income. What you have is the big buyers sitting on huge amounts of cash and next to nowhere to invest it. So stealing market share is a temporary fix, by buying ads.
All this is propped up by two things as to valuation: ability to borrow (if you are a big boy) at negative rates, and what happens when you discount future share prices on a standard NPV model, where low rates = far higher prices.
My guess is medium term, 2/3rds of all F1 income could drop to as low as 25% of where they are now, based on forward expectations. I’ll sit down more with the numbers, but I wrote here a few times that maybe 5BLN USD was about right, and the actual sales have not been too distant from that.
So I think there is a real scramble on, to capture what can be captured. Heaven forfend local govvies start tearing up contracts.
I’d love to see a Argentinian GP.
As for being lenient on tracks’ payments, well I am aware of a passing acquaintance, five figures in debt on cards, paying 1 pound 60 pence a month. The bank is too scared to write of the principal amount. If they started down that line they’d annihilate their reserves.
When I get time to check some hard data, I’ll expand these thoughts. But for now, I think the reason for the big discount to intended float price and lack of float is this will look a very neat short sell before long.
Footnote,
I believe the talk of 23 races is to put pressure on tracks so that 10% annual event fee inflation can be maintained. Fits with the historical machinations also.
A related Q would be how much managerial and other burden does the suggestion place on teams? It’s unwise to call Bernie’s bluff, and so at this mid stage, surely there is contingency planning.
I think you are spot on with the 23 races interpretation.
I know I am
You have no idea how little the average American is aware of Formula 1. Or how little they care about a bunch of foreigners racing foreign cars, regardless of where it is (yes, I know Indycar is the same, but it at least *pretends* to be American). Nobody here gives a shit, much like if the World Dressage Tournament was happening near me, I wouldn’t give a shit either.
Most of the people who go to the NJ race (if it happens) will be expats like me. There’s lots of us around NYC.
You did not go to the US Grand Prix in Indianapolis then? Who were all those people?
Mostly people with European, South American or even Asian heritage. But there are millions of us here in the US, so there enough of expat population to support couple of F1 races in the US of A.
Time to time I get together with bunch of people to watch races, and there has neven been a born American in the group. British, Belgians, Czechs, Malaysians, you name it. But no Americans. I do know some F1 fans who were born here, but it’s a small minority compared to other fans.
I live here and I think you’re incorrect. Fans here are much more knowledgable than other places and although the average Amercian may not follow F1 there’s definitely and interest and some understanding of what it is
I think F1 will boom if it gets off to a good start
Yes, but it’s a very small group of people. There aren’t that many US F1 fans – look at the viewing numbers on Speed! – and there won’t be until an American is in the sport, and this is key, doing well also.
It’s a bunch of foreigners racing foreign cars, and for the average American TV viewer it matters not one iota if the the race is in New Jersey or in Belgium.
Sure, there were plenty of Americans at the US Grand Prix in Indianapolis, but the place wasn’t bursting at the seams, was it? A lot of the people I met there were vacationing foreigners (huge numbers of Germans), and the USGP was an attraction on their American holiday (NYC, WDW, USGP…). The sensible ticket prices probably helped no end – hello Austin?
2.2% growth is more than most western economies. Yes it’s less than 9% but it’s still growth. If the slide continues then maybe it really is tanking. But until then it’s still growing.
Kirchner has been complaining about the Falkland Islands for months (not weeks). Just about every month this year in the UK we hear about “Las Malvinas” etc, etc to which everyone just sighs, thinks “fuck off” and knows that the residents of the Islands think of themselves as British not Argentinian (the proof of that will be the referendum later this year).
LOL, forgot we could just park a carrier fleet thereabouts until they agree to build a circuit!
Oh, oops, not sure we really have one of those any more 😦
Yup, we’d love 2.2% this way. Strip out the govvy largesse, and the figures get nasty.
This way guv, I’ve got some used aircraft carriers for yer. Planes? You want planes as well. Well, er, there’s been a slight problem on the plane front. We can’t have any for a few years. But you can sail the ships all you want! How many would you like?
About as incompetent as any party that thinks PFI is a good idea or actually puts it into practice (that’s both of the main UK parties). Piss up, Brewery. Say no more.
There are many, many F1 fans in the US however most of us are long time fans. There just is not a good way to measure us without an event. But the many independent US blogs and their supporters decrying artifical roulette racing as is today’s F1 should be a warning that die hard US fans are on the fence about their loyalty. Younger fans with no history to offend may be temporarily attracted but staying with the sport after a bit of attraction is suspect in our US culture of multiple attention distractions. F1 seems at a discomforting crossroads between a money grabbing dilution of the sport and losing its loyal fans. The sucess of races in the US will be built on the backs of long timers but could easily be destroyed by the nature of today’s racing which more and more seems luck of the draw or to our conspiracy fans “fixed”. Without more transparency suspious US fans could disappear. Quickly.
I hope this doesn’t come over as patronising or offensive, but as an American F1 fan what is your view of NASCAR racing?
The view from outside the US is that Americans like simple sports, Baseball, Basketball, and Nascar etc.
Is it possible that following the subtleties of F1 is beyond the average US sports fan?
I find Nascar utterly tedious.
Are you the mayor of Cliche-ville?
I live in the US but I’m not American. I do not watch Baseball, Basketball, Football or Nascar. But I am puzzled about your statement about ‘simple’ sports? What is simple for example in Foorball? Or Baseball? Compared to F1????
Condescending much?
So American sports don’t have subtlety? Really?
Any “sport” that requires pom-poms and dancing girls to keep your attention denies itself.
And pit babes? You obviously have no real point if that’s all you can come up with…
From the UK there isn’t much coverage of US sport (maybe there is on Sky, but I have an allergy to Sky) so what we do see is not the reality. What I saw on TV (without the volume) in a bar last year in Nevada made me realise that Americans are really proud and passionate about their sports. We may not like those sports but you’ve got to accept that the folks that do are passionate.
I find GridIron (NFL) to be slow and tedious but I’m sure if you know the subtleties it’s interesting. Basketball seemed interesting but I don’t really know it. NASCAR is snore time. Tedious round and round in the same direction, yada yada yada. Where is the braking, accelerating, turning skill? It’s a very different type of driving. You either like it or you don’t. I’m in the latter group.
It’s a bit like Curling or Bowls. Flat green is a waste of time (but simpler to play and understand), but crown green Bowls is awesome, but crown green doesn’t get on TV (whereas flat green does). You need to know the game to appreciate it.
American sports are “simple”??? The most popular sport outside the US of A is soccer/football/footy and we think of it as boring as watching paint dry.
To answer your question, American open wheel fans, be they F1 or IndyCar, usually aren’t big fans of NASCAR and vice versa. It’s two different things, like the punk movement of the late 1970s hated older, established prog rock groups like Pink Floyd and Emerson, Lake and Palmer whereas a Lawrence Welk fan would have found both types pretty much the same awful noise. I can only speak for myself, I’ll watch bits and pieces of a 3 1/2 hour NASCAR race although the only ones I really enjoy are the two road courses at Somona and Watkins Glen.because 1) there is a real gap in road course skill between drivers like Montoya, Jeff Gordon and some others which make for some passing and 2) while I am not a big fan of “trading paint”, the fact that you can have some physical contact and survive makes cars more willing to try to pass.
NASCAR seems to be more built on personalities, in a way that IndyCar isn’t (or not since A J Foyt and Mario Andretti retired). It gets tiresome at times, with various feuds and the “have at it boys” attitude NASCAR promotes. But people do like it and the blatant commercialism is so over the top, imho, that it becomes interesting to hear how drivers will constantly promote the sponsor in the 30 second tv interviews they give.
The relationship between US of A F1 fans and IndyCar fans would be more interesting if they were more of each to argue about. While on the surface you would think they are quite similar, the biggest IndyCar race is the oval race in Indianapolis. As a result, a lot of Indycar fans are oval fans and hate the street and road courses that have made up US open wheel racing for the 25 years. Many of them also don’t like the fact that Americans are in the minority of drivers, something like 7 out of 24 (although this is up from just a few years ago when there were only three). There is some interest in F1 with the huge budgets but many also see, rightly or wrongly, F1 people as arrogant jerks where American motorsports people, be they IndyCar, NASCAR or NHRA (drag racing) are generally brought up to be friendly and approachable.
Thank you Titus for attempting to answer my question.
I’m also interested in your comments on Indycar. Assuming you see yourself as an F1 fan foremost, what is your personal view of Indycar?
I find it rather “plastic”, less than thoroughbred.
I will watch most, if not all of an IndyCar race. But to those who grew up when the Indy 500 was legitimately the top race in the world (Jim Clark skipped Monaco in 1965 to race at Indy. Anything think Hamilton would do that today?), it is sad to see how far the race has fallen due to self destructive behavior by its pig headed team owners and especially by Tony George, whose family owns the IMS. The newest CEO, Randy Bernard who turned professional bull riding into a successful niche sport (seriously), is doing the best job he can to turn it around, considering the fact he came in knowing virtually nothing about the track and an unfortunately tendency to speculate publicly. Do you really need to say things like you would like to promote a race in Texas where Eddie Gossage (who runs the track) prides himself as a promoter and usually has decent crowds? The thrill of seeing the turbine car of the late 1960s, Rogers Penske put a school bus engine in an Indy Car. is gone as spec racing dominated for years and is only now starting to come back (Three engine manufacturers, if you count Lotus and Fred Flintstone could propel a car faster with his feet than a Lotus could). I know F1 wants to reduce costs but they should be careful how far they go by looking at IndyCar. IndyCar at least has the fact that it has a wide variety of courses with ovals, road and street courses. Bernard is trying to set up a feeder system so more American kids grow up learning how to drive on open wheel cars, instead of the high power, low downforce sprint cars tnhat send many to NASCAR (the huge paychecks and 43 spot in a NASCAR Cup race, not to mention lower series like Nationwide and truck).
But the big unfortunate thing is the IRL vs CART war may have lost an entire generation of fans. Danny Sullivan, who had 15 F1 starts back in 1983, was involved in the Red Bull search for an American driver that got Scott Speed in F1. He says that candidates involved would ask him about his racing career. he would reply he won the Indy 500 and a CART title. They would say “gee, that’s nice, but are those really important?”. Sacrilege to older fans but it doesn’t take long to fade from public sight.
To add to my earlier post, a lot of American F1 and IndyCar fans are jealous of NASCAR because of its huge success. for decades it was an ugly stepchild, kept largely to the south. But one thing they have is the France family who owns it generally knows what they are doing and enforces. You don[‘t step out of line too often from them. Founder Big Bill used to joke how he held his board meeting in a
\telephone booth. I don’t mean to endorse a dictatorship as the best form of government because it is. But in some circumstances and industries it can be very effective if people know what they are doing,and the France family generally does.
Colin, I can understand your feelings that Indycar seems a little plastic. It may be getting better but it seems to take a step back after each forward. One thing fans have noticed is that its sponsor, Izod, is less involved this year (manifesting itself in few appearances on the podium by Cameron, the Izod Trophy girl). Some rumours have Indycar looking for a new sponsor despite having three years left on the deal. And IndyCar went years without a sponsor before Izod came and initially did an very good job.I don’t expect it to every regain its prominence as America’s top motorsport for at least 20 years, if that.
Interesting Titus, thank you. You are indeed an F1 fan.
Just one thing I’d quibble with. Perhaps not “legitimately the top race in the world”, rather the most lucrative race in the world.
It was the lucre, not the reputation that got Chapman’s attention.
Though he was doubtless intrigued by the more open engine formula so he experimented with turbines and 4WD.
I witnessed the F1 Lotus 56 race in the UK, and it was quite an experience!
As an American born in America who likes American sports as well… I totally get what Colin is saying.
They are “simple” sports. They are easy to understand. Some Americans call F1 “boring” because they are unwilling to take the time to understand the big picture of what is going on in a race. It takes a lot less effort to “get” a NASCAR race. Plus, American television is very good at ‘dumbing down’ everything to attract a more ‘causal’ audience thereby inflating the numbers of ‘fans’. When in all honesty none of them are very die-hard. As somebody who grew up loving NASCAR and F1 (pretty much all auto racing for that matter) I feel that I am certainly able to be honest with myself about the situation.
It is entertaining. There is nothing wrong with football, basketball, or NASCAR. As I said… I take pleasure in watching them. But Colin is not being unreasonable here. They are easy to watch. Simple.
Titus… I disagree with your soccer assessment. You say Americans find Soccer to be boring. You must be an older gentleman. Most of the folks from my generation in the U.S. grew up playing soccer. And they still watch it to this day. We even play FIFA on Xbox. So that is a very outdated viewpoint I think.
Thank you Dale, appreciate reading your views.
Would you call yourself and F1 fan? If so what is your view on watching Indycar, does it get your “blood up”?
I briefly met a 20ish Mexican today, educated, and must be from a wealthy family. So I immediately button-holed him on F1.
“Have you ever heard of Pedro Rodriguez?”
“[long pause…] was he Mexican?”
I had to prompt, and eventually he got there, but had never heard of Ricardo.
In his embarrassment he explained,
“I’m into Football, Basketball… will you be going to the Brazil World Cup?”
This… whilst a Mexican is currently blazing a podium trail in F1!
Of course I am an F1 fan. Indy does not really get my blood up… but I would prefer to watch it over NASCAR any day of the week (since there are now more road races than ovals in the series). V8 Supercars has got me watching stock car racing again. If NASCAR could be similar I would watch it a lot more.
It’s the oval. It really is. I find the concept of an oval track to be stupid and pointless. Many Americans feel it is “the only way to race”. I find this logic to be quite stupid. Even the moonshine runners that gave birth to the sport would turn right and use the brake from time to time when out running the cops. So why dumb it down and put it in some arena? Do they expect Americans to be stupid… or are they trying to make us stupid? It’s catering to the lowest common denominator to increase the fan base. Leave it on the road where it was born.
But in any case I love racing in general. I love the Rolex series, ALMS, Continental Tire, Grand-Am, MotoGP, etc…
I think Formula One rises to the top because it is the whole package. Great drivers, impressive tracks, and what is most important for me is the unique and phenominal cars.
I intend to start a car company at some point between now and my dying breath… and for me the technology and design aspect of it is just incredible. So I guess you could say that above all else… I like the science of racing. Which is why I feel NASCAR is boring. If I wanted to see someone drive a car in a circle for four hours I would watch my younger sister learn how to drive a vehicle (which is actually more entertaining).
Excellent post Dale!
Dale,
Eventhough I live in the US, I do not follow the ‘simple’ sports’. I did watch a football game once with a fan, and as the game progressed he explained the rules, why a player’s performance was good or bad, the strategic choices etc.
I certainly did not view that as simple, and could totally see how one could find it facinating. It’s just not my cup of tea. Without knowing the sport and the level of details explained to me, it’s simply boring to me. And I don’t think there’s much of a difference if somebody just happens to watch a F1 race. Without really understanding what is going on, I am not surprised if they find the race boring.
I too appriciate unique cars. However, I don’t think we really have any in F1 anymore. The rules are so restrictive that all teams come up with pretty much with the same car. Minor differences make one car better than the other. Which is all a pity IMO.
The NJ location is strategic due to its location being within a population hub on the east coast. It is also relatively easy for Europeans to travel to. Much easier than say Australia.
However the key to this equation is the timezone. Its much larger than just the USA.
Joe .. .congratulations … you´r sooo right !!!
I think the interesting F1 comparison in the States is not with Indy or NASCAR, but rather with soccer. I played soccer in high school (I’m in my 50s now) and Pele was playing for the New York Cosmos and everybody said soccer was going to be the next big sport in the US. It’s been an uphill slog for 30 years, starts and restarts, tremendous investments of will and capital, and it’s still nowhere near being on par with the so-called major US sports. One wonders whether F1 has the long-term ambition to make it work here when there are probably easier options to cultivate.