The news that Nico Hulkenberg is switching from Force India to Renault (despite having earlier been confirmed at Force India) means that there are two F1 seats in 2017 which are now in focus, as the dominoes fall. With Mercedes, Red Bull and Ferrari already filled, the next best drives, at least in terms of points scored, are the Force India which Hulkenberg will vacate, and the second Renault. There is also, in principle, a second Williams. However, it is almost certain that the Grove team will be taking on Lance Stroll, the Canadian who has won the European Formula 3 Championship this year and has a billionaire father. In theory the team is keeping Valtteri Bottas, even though he has had a big offer from Renault and might wish to move on. The truth is that Williams cannot really afford to lose him in the sense that it needs a proper contender and some stability with Felipe Massa retiring. Bringing in two new drivers would not be a grand idea. However, if someone is willing to pay enough to buy Valtteri out, the team might accept the cash and then go fishing for a Felipe Nasr or a Kevin Magnussen. Williams may be under performing, but it still has a Mercedes engine. It might also be willing to accept a Mercedes junior, such as Pascal Wehrlein – if the money is right.
Force India is a similar story. The team will find the driver with the right balance between talent, money and experience. The operations works miracles given the budget it has, but has been let down by its ownership, who seem to have huge amounts of talent when it comes to ducking and weaving – but both the major shareholders have managed to get into trouble with the Indian authorities which means that their time in F1 is limited. Harry Houdini would be hard-pressed to keep Force India in the long term. The team is for sale. The problem for the moment is that the price being asked to sell the team is slightly higher than Mont Blanc and, oddly enough, no-one is keen to don the financial crampons and potential buyers are waiting until the Indians slide down the mountain. In the interim, the team will no doubt be facing a veritable fashion show of candidates in the weeks ahead, flashing their cash and their talent in the hope of getting a deal alongside Sergio Perez. The same names pop up but I don’t see Banco do Brasil wanting the Mallya association, so Nasr is at a disadvantage in this respect. Wehrlein, Magnussen, Palmer and others will be in the running. Renault wants Bottas alongside Hulkenberg but may not get him, so the choice will be from the same midfield gang with Esteban Ocon on an option.
Haas is expected to keep the same duo, but Renault might knock on Romain Grosjean’s door if Bottas is not available.
We’ll see…
joeblogsf1 
I guess Grosjean will have to decide if it’s worth ditching the Ferrari dream by moving from Haas. Did Perez burn his bridges & path to Maranello when he took the McLaren gig?
A Hulk/Bottas match up would be great, I’d also like to see Mag/Perez in equal hardware. I think Mag is underrated (and received harsher treatment from McLaren than Sergio)… I’d like to see him lock in his place as one of the usual drivers of this new generation.
Why does no one mention Palmers future?
Thanks
Matt
I’s venture, sadly, because he has none in F1.
Because at the highest level he is average at. Est?
I think pretty much any rookie driver would probably struggle to look anything more than average in the current Renault. Palmer as a rookie hasn’t looked terrible compared to Magnussen, who in turn didn’t look terrible in his rookie year compared to a highly experienced Jenson Button.
Drivers shine in different ways. With Palmer, I get the impression he quietly goes about the business of learning the ropes and builds on experience, possibly more in the Damon Hill mold. It doesn’t grab the attention so immediately as those who rely on wielding untamed raw talent but possibly don’t develop so much with time, so he’s at higher risk of being labelled average and never getting the chance to achieve full potential.
I think both Palmer and Magnussen can feel a little hard done by if their chance in F1 ends so prematurely, and are scapegoated for what is a pretty shoddy car. With Hulk signed on at Renault for 2017, I think it would be good to see one of the current drivers keep their seat. If nothing else it will really give us a way to gauge how Magnussen/Palmer have done this year against a known solid talent. My feeling is that apart from the odd mistake from the current drivers, the car is being driven to it’s full potential, and mistakes are probably a reflection of the trickiness of the car and how much the drivers are trying to compensate for it.
There are certain drivers who have backing from manufacturers, or have lots of cash (or both), who’s actual on track performances aren’t exactly any more impressive, at least not consistently. If any of them were dropped into this years Renault, I doubt we’d see a step change in performance of the Renault car…and they’d also look ‘average at best’.
I think it says a lot that Palmer has not already been consigned to the one season wonders. It shows what a good attitude can do
Interesting question. Opinion seems divided possibly because F1 seems to embrace very young drivers these days and by those standards Palmer is almost mature. I think that if he gets a couple more good finishes (relative to the car) he will have done enough to be worth a drive but F1 is not that simple with political considerations impacting on driver choice decisions. However he and his backers were smart enough to get him into F1 for this year and they may be smart enough to keep him there. I imagine they will be looking at plans invoving other teams than Renault though that would probably be their preferred option.
It is not that he is too old, it is just he is not good enough.
“It shows what a good attitude can do”
A wheelbarrow of cash doesn’t hurt either.
Hi Joe, if I am reading this right and on the base that neither driver is confirmed it seems like magnussen or palmer are the last resort rather then viable options. Any chance that this years Gp2 champ (whoever wins) might turn up? I wonder if Kvyat has to worry about his position.
/Any chance that this years Gp2 champ (whoever wins) might turn up?/
Gasly is a Red Bull man, so he might get a place at Toro Rosso.
Giovinazzi has some connection with Ferrari, but I doubt they would try and put him at Sauber or Haas. He’s going to have a LMP1 test, by the way.
If Bottas were to go to Renault, he will notice that team performance and strategy has more to it than just very fast pit stops. That will be an interesting discovery for Vallteri.
For the second drive at Renault: Felipe Nasr is often spoken of as a pay driver, lugging big Petrobras money bags round the paddock, but he is actually a very promising and fast driver. His potential has been overshadowed by the chaos at Sauber. Were Renault to take him alongside Hulk, my money would be on Nasr to shine brightest of the two.
(… Just the thoughts of another F1 night owl a**hole )
I thought they were satchels of banknotes stamped Banco do Brasil….
I defer…. you are doubtless correct
Nasrs “potential” has been overshadowed as of late by one Marcus Ericsson.
The word has been Stroll for Williams for months now, but no official announcement. I was wondering out aloud the reason to my mate the other day and he asked who the main sponsor is. Martini & Rossi says I, to which he says “and how old is Stroll at the moment, 17?” Aaaahh, I never thought of that!
I still don’t see how Palmer is being rated in the same breadth as Magnussen. The Dane finished 3rd on his debut or something didn’t he?
When everything has been right this season he has comfortably outpaced Jolyon.
Kev is now quite an experienced driver and i would bavk him to perform comfortably against Hulkenberg….
Whilst Magnussen did finish on the podium in his first race (in 2nd place after Ricciardo’s car was ruled to have been in an illegal configuration), it was pretty much downhill from there in terms of competitiveness. Over the full course of the season, Magnussen only managed to beat Button in three races (as opposed to Button beating him 14 times), whilst Button also outqualified him 10 times to 9.
Equally, although Magnussen has tended to be quicker than Palmer this season, he has arguably been more error prone – he’s crashed out of more races and been in trouble with race control for blocking other drivers in qualifying and for crashing into other drivers much more frequently than Palmer has.
Palmer has had error strewn races this year – including throwing away his first real chance of points, I would say he’s been even worse than K-Mag.
The car is not easy to drive – they are putting on downforce thats not that stable by the looks of things because they are lacking in aero load. (A slightly educated guess). But personally I don’t think Palmer has done enough unfortunatly.
Being beaten by the most experienced driver and a WDC in your first full season is no disgrace! Palmer has upped his game in the 2nd half of the season compared to Kevin which has been slightly worrying but neither driver has had much joy and have been forced to overdrive to get any performance out of it. When the margins are reduced the accidents come.
On the subject of Renault and their relative under-staffing levels; is there any truth in the Autocar reports that Audi, under pressure from the VW board given their direct competition with Porsche, are set to close down their LMP1 operation? If so, surely Enstone will be brimfull of ex-Audi staffers before long?
Or is the old chestnut of a VW-Audi F1 entry set to finally come true, especially now that Bernie seems to be on the way out?
It’s odd that Autocar – such a venerable source – are running this story and no-one else is. I would have thought it a much bigger deal, after 13 Le Mans wins, WEC championships and Petit Le Mans titles.
I don’t know who supplies Autocar these days. But the mag is well connected
French owned-managed (or is that mismanaged?) Renault would benefit with a french driver. Having Grosjean on board may even resuscitate the possibility of a French GP.
Any driver thinking Ferrari is where I want to be needs to park that dream for 4-5 years until they correct their problems. Just ask Herr Vettel.
My thoughts, for what they’re worth. Yes, you’d have thought Grosjean would would be ideal but you forget that he’s Franco/Swiss and anyway there’s no discernible clamour for a French GP these days, in France that is. People forget where Merc were not that long ago – it takes time to build a team and keep it at the top, just look at Williams.
Hmmm, so when he wins his first GP which national anthem will they play? French, I would suspect?
No interest in a french GP for years, agreed, but having a french driver in the series can possibly pique interest in a revival.
With regard to the Renault car I have assumed the chassis is not up to scratch as the engine is doing well in the Red Bull………………..
or is there more to it than that?
The team was on the verge of bankruptcy. It takes time to rebuild
Joe, what has happened to the buccaneer owner of the Lotus years who managed to take the team to the top but ‘forgot’ to pay his lead driver?
Does anyone care?
I just cannot see the sense in splitting Wherlein and Ocon….Merc should place both at Manor and have them compete for their places, neither of them have yet proven they deserve a leg up.
I would say Wehrlein has proven it, but then again I’m just a fan.
I’m guessing the Stroll/Williams deal won’t be announced until after October 29, his 18th birthday?
Wouldn’t look too crash at present hot if a team sponsored by a grog company signs a minor.
Nasr is backed by BdB not Petrobras. And I don’t think his backers would be at all bothered about the ownership structure of Force India too. I think it would make for more sense to slot Stroll into the reserve driver role at Williams for 2017 and have him drive Fridays at each circuit. But Nasr is after a 2 year deal, not a 1 year, so he’s unlikely to move to Williams.
I realise he’s been in a dog of a car but I doubt that given anything better Nasr will shine. There’s a lot of Maldonado about him.
as for Hulk – perfect – now or never.
as for Williams – imagine Martini & Rossi with Rossi – perfect!
and Stroll can not buy Martini yet anyway 🙂
and where does Kvyat fits?
Joe – why did Red Bull stop Sainz to go to Renault?
he’s under contract but it doesn’t stop a driver going to a better ride..so red bull pays him as a top driver and with renault top spec engines he’s the lead driver ..goes after podiums
My guess is Bottas stays at Williams. Williams needs an experienced hand in the team. Second seat at Renault – Grojean probably returns.
Surely a Mont Blanc Fountain Pen is worth more than Force India.
Joe could it be possible that in the long run Force India maybe taken as debt owed to India via legal proceedings in UK. Or has he got the ownership details registered in the Cayman Islands or a similar nook?
No idea… But the Indians will find out
I don’t know if Hulkenberg is not already a burned driver. He was long ago seen as one of the best but he never showed anything great because he never was in a great car. Renault will have a great car in 2018 and maybe he will be able to show his real value but he will be over 30 years old then…
Other question :
I have a complete (almost) collection of Autocourse books and this series is still published every year. Was it involved in the last week transaction ?
I think it would be a grave mistake for Williams’ image and performance to have two pay drivers and not at least have one tier 1 driver.
Wehrlein has been a disappointment. He was essentially matched by Haryanto (tied quali results to begin with) and Ocon has been as fast or faster straight out of the box. I’m surprised this hasn’t gotten much more attention. I think he has been over hyped since Mercedes has already annointed him the heir apparent / golden boy. He seems like a good guy, but if he’s a future champion he would be wiping the floor with his teammates.
I share your surprise
FWIW, Button was comfortably better than Magnussen in 2014; the stats quoted previously confirm this. I wouldn’t expect a protege to lose his drive after one season unless he’s been found out by the team. Magnussen has hardly blown Palmer away this season. I do like Palmer, but I don’t see him being a top line driver. And Nasr wasn’t any better than Palmer in GP2 when they were team mates, thinking about it. So if Palmer is a one-season driver, it doesn’t say much for the other two.