Nico Rosberg admitted in his retirement statement that his departure would be difficult for the Mercedes team – and he wasn’t kidding. Finding a driver who is ready to step into such a drive, and is free, is going to be a real struggle. The first thing that Mercedes will likely do is to ring around and chat to all the obvious candidates to ascertain their contractual status and whether there are any top team get-out clauses. Obviously, drivers in top teams will not have these, which means that one can pretty exclude Sebastian Vettel, Kimi Raikkonen, Daniel Ricciardo, Max Verstappen, Fernando Alonso and Stoffel Vandoorne from the drive.
Renault is unlikely to want to let Nico Hulkenberg go, although he would be a good choice for Mercedes if there was a way out. It is doubtful that there is. The option would be to look at the recently retired Jenson Button and Felipe Massa, but neither was very competitive by the end of the year and so it is much more likely that Mercedes would look to the future. Williams would not let Valtteri Bottas go to Renault and so there is no reason to suppose that it would let the Finn go to Mercedes, except that it uses Mercedes-Benz engines and might be offered more assistance by Stuttgart if it was to allow Bottas to move up. With Pascal Wehrlein available, the team would be a little short on experience, but Wehrlein is clearly good and has a lot to prove. Force India has Sergio Perez and Esteban Ocon under contract and Ocon is there because it was felt he would need more time to develop. He was picked over Wehrlein. Thus Mercedes might consider the Frenchman as a possible candidate, but it is a bit too early for him to be stepping into such a drive.
The one thing that this may do, when the dominoes have all fallen is to make a space for Felipe Nasr to find a driver. But that is a long way off at the moment…
joeblogsf1 
I wonder if Buemi will come knocking… ?
That’s a very interesting idea, Matt. He’s been fast in every car he’s driven.
I want some of whatever you’re smoking.
He hasn’t raced in F1 in five seasons. He won’t be anywhere near the discussion.
F1 race experience, long time Red Bull test/dev driver, Le Mans podiums, WEC world champion, current formula E champion…
… Not likely to unsettle the team and be a direct threat to Hamilton…
… But not likely to bring any $$$ from his Red Bull sponsorship, though.
If all the top talent is locked in to contracts aren’t putting their hands up, surely Buemi would be a fair chance compared to any other mid-pack F1 driver.
Button is on a gardening leave contract, don’t know how much he could move with that. But, hey, Webber isn’t currently contracted… !
/long time Red Bull test/dev driver/
And still under contract with Red Bull. Buemi did Pirelli tests for them in August or September.
Would it benefit Mercedes to go with a clear #2 behind Hamilton – a Wehrlein or Ocon? Or go after another top driver, and start that competition for attention/resources/team orders all over again? Then again, that competition may partly explain MB success in recent years. Thoughts?
And Joe – You are the first place so many of us go for reasoned analysis, so thanks.
Since they are likely to have a LOT to learn next year with the new regulations and that they will probably have to fight for it too, I doubt a “second driver” to partner Hamilton will be an attractive option for Mercedes.
Off course they could probably resort to a Wehrlein or Ocon as backup (in emergency it would be no problem to let Pascal drive during testing if negotiations take a while), but that will only be their backup plan Ralph
Fearing that they might be pushed a lot harder next year by Red Bull and Ferrari (if they get their act together), Mercedes will want the best driver they can possible get to chase the manufacturer’s championship. A “B” list driver will not be their preferred choice…
I know its a long shot, but Toto has to try to get Max!!!
Imagine Lewis’ face if he was told he’d be facing Max on the other side of the garage! almost as good as telling him Alonso’s coming!
It’ll be Hamiltons first season vs Alonso in reverse ! That, Vettel or Alonso in the second seat have to be the fans favourite. I wonder if Vettel phone his lawyer or Toto first?? And would Alonso bet on next years Macca over next years Merc? I doubt VES wouldn’t bet against next years Newey RB though, gotta expect them to come out of the gate strong.
All academic and tied up with contracts, but nothing wrong with wishful thinking.
Exciting times !! Already can’t wait to March !
Red Bull would have an interesting choice to make if Mercedes were prepared to trade an engine contract for Verstappen.
I really don’t think Red Bull would put up with having a Mercedes customer engine, which is what it would be as there is no way that Mercedes would risk being out-performed by another team with the same engine as theirs.
JOS, do you remember what Red Bull told Renault when they were trying to get Sainz? Then what do you think Marko, Horner and Didi will tell Toto when he asks?
Surely they have no reasone at all to give up a driver like Verstappen to a direct rival. I guess the same goes for Vettel at Ferrari. And Ron and Alonso made it pretty clear that the McLaren contract was a fixed deal, with no get out options when they signed it.
I’d expect a car performance clause in Alonso’s contract. Until now there hasn’t been a destination to go to for it to be worth exercising…
Yes, there must surely be a performance clause in Alonso’s contract – but would Toto and Niki want the potential aggro?
Might there be a similar clause in Vettel’s contract?
There isn’t.
Now that would really put Hamilton under pressure 😀, but I don’t think he would leave RB
Don’t think Lewis fears anyone. He just doesn’t care about that. He likes to race so he wouldnt be shocked. In 2007 It was Alonso who was having the mood swings when Lewis started out shinning him.
Tricky choice for Mercedes
But Hulks would be a good fit as would Wehrlein. Both German.
Don’t think Lewis fears anyone. He just doesn’t care about that. He likes to race so he wouldnt be shocked. In 2007 It was Alonso who was having the mood swings when Lewis started out shinning him.
Tricky choice for Mercedes
But Hulks would be a good fit as would Wehrlein. Both German..
Doesn’t Toto manage Bottas?
He part owns the management company
Joe, wasn’t Vettel driving for a top team, didn’t Vettel had and made use of a “get-out clause”?.
These contracts are all different. Vettel got out using a lock-in clause that did not lock.
I know I’m getting over-excited (having now suggested 3 drivers in the last 30 minutes) and you will probably tell me to go and have a lie down, but I notice you didn’t mention any reason why Perez would not be an option. I suspect a Force India contract may be one of those that *is* disposable
Here’s a thought: Bottas gets out of his Williams contract and goes to Mercedes. Perez gets out of his Force India contract and takes all that Carlos Slim money to Williams, where they could really use it.
OK, but why would he want to move from Force India to Williams?
Anyone else wonder if Perez might not do better for Mercedes than Bottas anyway?
Good q,…no good answer…unless he learns or feels something about one poss. future of the team with its owner mostly in hiding..that makes a Williams with Slim money a pretty good proposition….
Then again… His main skill has been pretty much to fly low and avoid the crap mostly, and milk pirellis like a loving farmer works his prize cow….
. Not convinced those skills will be as important next year we just don’t know yet but I think the guys known for hard charging vs the smoothest tire friendly style, may be a touch better off….
I’m not surprised that all the drivers in top teams can’t leave. However, I’m surprised that Alonso did not negotiate a get-out clause.
Vettel doesn’t actually have a 2017 contract yet.
Yes he does
Sky reported otherwise.
http://www.skysports.com/f1/news/12433/10609328/sebastian-vettel-must-earn-new-ferrari-deal-beyond-2017
Does that make them right?
Doesn’t that article say he needs to perform well in 2017 to earn a contract for 2018…. no doubt on his contract status in the red car for 2017 that I read in there.
That does indeed say that his contract covers 2017 and they’ll look at 2018 as they go along. The way Arrivabene speaks actually supports my theory that a swap of Hamilton and Vettel became slightly more likely with Rosberg’s retirement. He doesn’t seem to like Vettel’s wanting to have deeper involvement with the team, so Hamilton’s different approach to both racing and life may suit him better, while Mecedes may find Vettel’s way an appealing replacement for Rosberg’s hard-working, muck-in ethos. On a horses for courses basis such a swap might suit everyone.
Wouldn’t Lewis find the politics at Ferrari crushing? I can’t see why he’d want to swop seats with Vettel…
He wouldn’t.
Key operative word: “beyond”
Clearly says ‘beyond 2017’….
Srsly…. Wtf people.
Rock on Joe.
Craig, that article is almost 2 months old. I am pretty sure that since then they confirmed that they had prolongued the deal for a year.
Vettel signed a three-year contract in November 2014. Therefore he is free (options notwithstanding) in November 2017.
Yes, off course, even that article itself mentions that it is about what Vettel does AFTER 2017.
Joe, can you give us a rundown of when the top drivers (Alonso, Vettel, Verstappen, Ricciardo, anyone else you think might be a long-term as opposed to stopgap candidate – Bottas? Perez?) come out of contract?
I can’t help thinking that Mercedes will go for an experienced journeyman placeholder for 2017. Am I wrong?
Nasr to Williams, paid for by a massive chunk of wedge to let Bottas go.
If in the unlikely case that it takes one of the Red Bull drivers…would Hamilton bail too?
After Abu Dhabi, I am sure Toto wouldn’t mind do a straight swap (e.g. Hamilton fo Ricciardo/Verstappen), and then worry about who to put in the second Mercedes seat later.
Would Ferrari even want Vettel if he’s being forced to stay? Vettel was in an under performing sulk this year as it was, imagine how bad he could be in 2017 driving to fulfill a contract.
For entertainment’s sake we need a driver of Hamilton’s caliber in the other Merc! Vettel, Max, Alonso…
Toto’s wife would be brave a great choice
She’s pregnant!
And the rules don’t allow 2 persons in the car 😀
And THAT’s the reason they would choose her.
Hang on who’s pregnant?
Are we talking about Suzie or Britney now?
(In fairness that would be a very decent reason to retire).
Two drivers for the price of one!
Yeah, maybe half a year ago. Now she will first have to focus on delivering a baby Jan Peter. But Simona de Silvestro is probably available, for example.
She’s retired
And pregnant
hey man, maybe that’s the reason She retired – to get pregnant, to have a kids, to have a sound family life . . .
Super brave choice, as it would be his last one with the team “for sure”.
Not a great choice in any way.
Makes absolutely no sense in any way.
Makes as much sense as going for Button….
……hey…..wait..
The two best possibilities of drivers who would test Lewis are either Verstappen or Ricciardo. As Max is rightly deemed the future of RB, MAYBE, just maybe RB would release Dan and bring up another RB junior from their stable???
THAT would be a driver pairing worth watching!
Yes agreed I’d be on the edge of my seat for the whole of 2017. Sadly I don’t think it’s likely though.
Pierre Gasly is the reigning GP2 champ so RB would not be short of options were they to let one of their top drivers (or even Sainz) to go but really don’t see this one happening..
You would have to be crazy to leave Red Bull just as the aero rules change.
I don’t think Ricciardo is completely out of the question. The team has made a number of odd decisions during his races this year. And, I sensed that, behind that big smile of his, there was more than a little discontent. Max is obviously Helmut Marko’s boy of the future (and why not?), so Daniel might want out. And, I think he would be a match for Lewis.
Joe surely past experience shows us that no F1 contract is watertight if one party wants out and has the backnig to do so.
Not true. Some are
It always seems the teams can dump a driver under contract from a race seat if they wish (see Sauber), but a driver wanting out has to work a little harder to escape, especially if he wants to drive elsewhere.
Maybe the teams, being in the slightly stronger negotiating position, just write up contracts heavily in their favor when it come to exit clauses. Or maybe it’s just the teams are more willing to disregard a contract and dump a driver with little repercussion (Giedo van de Garde fought back but ultimately settled in court, and certainly didn’t get to drive the Sauber again) where as a driver can’t just climb in another team’s car if still under contract….maybe we need to see a driver try it to see how strong the contracts hold and whether the FIA accept the driver entry.
Anyway, of all the signed up top drivers, I would have thought Alonso would be most likely to have contract performance clauses that weren’t fulfilled by the team…but maybe exit option deadlines have passed.
After Alonso, Vettel probably looks the least settled of the top drivers. He’s either struggled or Kimi found his form, or a bit of both, but he’s definitely not looked as happy this season and isn’t so clearly no.1 at Ferrari. And the team have seamed to put him in his place a few times when maybe his focus wasn’t 100% on driving his own car. I don’t know how long Vettel is committed contractually, but Ferrari have a history of letting contracted drivers go early…but do they really want to help Merc form a driver lineup with 7 world championships between them, as interesting as that sounds to the rest of us? Letting Alonso go to McLaren was fairly safe given the likely performance of the McLaren Honda in it’s first few years back together, but allowing Vettel to join Lewis at Mercedes might not be in Ferrari’s interests.
I think Button is now mentally retired – his decision came too soon in 2016 to take advantage of a top seat opening up now. A pre-2016 Button probably would have enjoyed another stab at teaming up with Lewis, especially as he was one of the most vocally excited by the 2017 rule changes, but I think it’s too late now. And he’d definitely be a stop gap solution even if he wasn’t ‘retired’ and still looking for a drive for 2017. Plus the odd McLaren reserve deal and option for 2018 probably makes it complicated.
Massa is probably more likely than Button to think about reversing the retirement decision, and has a cleaner employment status, so would be easier for Merc to do a quick 1 or 2 year deal. He almost seemed a little reluctant to retire when Williams made it clear they were looking elsewhere. His pace to Bottas this year looked comparable, so I don’t think his performance levels would be a concern; certainly enough to keep Lewis honest and probably a good level above a rookie (unless another Jos Verstappen is in the pipe), and more likely to be consistent than a rookie.
I really hope that once all the driver swaps shakeout, Mercedes fill Nico’s seat with a top driver capable of taking on Lewis. I think it benefits Lewis to be pushed too. With the 2017 rule changes, there’s no guarantees the Merc is going to be a dominant title contender, but you’d be mad not to assume they’ll be up there for the challenge, and it would be a shame for a prime seat to be used for driver development.
with every group of isolated highly talented people, there is a cost of that exceptionalism. It’s ugly when presumed privilege backfires, but if that’s not the cost, look elsewhere, like you need to know the sucker at a card game. With cohesive groups of privileged people, the costs tend to fall in accepted ways, outside of which there’s severe opprobrium, otherwise the costs are tolerated or even celebrated as part of distinction from the outside world. Some theorists would be inclined to believe that arbitrary contract interpretations can in extreme directly contribute e.g, to MBP failing to find a goo enough driver to retain constuctor’s in ’17, but impossible to get the data or normalise the value of that data if it were available. I say this situation is made worse (dire) by lack of testing, than anything else. The F1 talent pool looks too shallow, suddenly. Now, i think that is definitely caused problems by a variety of exceptionalist behaviours.
Would Lewis have any say in which driver who gets picked?
Personally I think they end up taking one of the junior Mercedes drivers
I think Bottas or Perez, personally. A reduction in engine costs + Wehrlein would help smooth the way.
He said today he never has interfered in such matters and I tend to believe him.
Nor will he get the chance.
Rosberg’s retirement comes as a shock, but it makes perfect sense. He gave it his all, succeeded, and goes out on the biggest possible high. Good for him.
The choices for his replacement are slim. But, just a reminder – the last time a big fish abruptly retired to be quickly replaced by a driver with potential but with little in the way of results was Rosberg Sr., replacing Carlos Reuteman.
He won the World Championship in his first season with the big team.
Keke replaced Alan Jones; Reuteman’s drive went to Derek Daly.
You’re memory has gotten confused, AMJ:
Reutemann and Rosberg Sr. were team mates for the first two races of 1982. It was Derek Daly who was brought in to replace the “abruptly retired” Argentine, and the not-especially-abruptly retired Alan Jones whom Keke had succeeded.
What about when Alonso left McLaren at the end of 07 and they brought in Kovalainen? Didn’t end so well. Or McLaren bringing in Perez in 2013 to replace a departed Lewis Hamilton? Also didn’t work out so well. Those examples didn’t involve a retirement, but that’s really beside the fact.
No, Keke replaced Alan Jones.
Let’s not forget Vettel leaving Red Bull and quickly replaced by Kvyat, but not for long…
I wouldn’t think Button or Massa would be willing in any case, given the nature of their retirements. I keep coming back to Sergio Perez. Or what about Grosjean?
Good shout on Grosjean there Jason…. I was a big fan of his latter performances at Lotus and he started this year really strongly with Haas (and of the experienced names that have been touted, maybe the most likely to have a get-out clause).
I suppose we’re going to get weeks of speculation about the replacement driver. Having seen the problems caused by having a pair of equal drivers, Mercedes would be mad to set up similar problems next year by signing Vettel or Alonso who are both stroppy when things don’t go their way.
Rosberg’s decision pretty much consigns him to the ‘One Hit Wonder’ category of soon forgotten champions, unlike Damon Hill who was devastated not to be in a position to defend his title. I know a motorcycle champion who was forced by his wife to leave at the top and regretted it forever.
Which rider was that Jonno?
A one-hit-wonder who was gifted the title even !
I’m not prepared to say, as he told me in confidence.
Casey Stoner
AFAIK, Casey left very much on his own terms.
And with 2 titles…
“One hit wonder.” That’s a pretty harsh assessment, Jonno. You ignore all those years Nico struggled to get to the top, and finally did so. His new family has made him less one-dimensional. He’ll always be a World Champion now, but he’ll also be able to relax and enjoy a happy life. Good for him.
When the dust has settled and more information comes out, we will start hearing a lot about what has been going on at Mercedes during this season. Questions will be asked as to why Tonto and co allowed the Spanish GP incident to go unpunished, why Tonto nagged Jos Verstappen to tell his son to keep well clear of any incidents during the last couple of races, who altered the settings on Hamilton’s car at Bacu between qualifying and the race, etc, etc.
Going further back, after the 2015 Mexico race, Lewis Hamilton said “…You should ask Toto [Wolff] and Niki [Lauda]. Put those questions to them about how they feel about it. What they have to do behind the scenes to keep him (Rosberg) happy…”
This year Hamilton learned the hard way, that he had to be extra careful when driving close or attempting to overtake Rosberg. Having achieved a large points gap, Rosberg would do anything to keep it and the management of Mercedes were happy to allow him to drive in that way. That approach has backfired on Tonto, he’s got custard all over his face.
I will remember Nico Rosberg as the petulent child who took the ball home after being accused of dirty play.
Finally, I’ve been hearing for the past 3 years that any monkey could win in the Mercedes, it flattered Lewis Hamilton and he’s still not a great driver. Now there’s a seat going, all I’ve read is how necessary it is for a top driver like Alonso or Vettel to be signed up. Wouldn’t it be nice for Lewis Hamilton to have a couple of seasons where he’s not having to battle his team mate for wins? Hamilton has only raced for 2 seasons with a lesser driver in the other car, unlike so many other multiple champions who insist they are given undisputed No 1 status.
You forget that Toto doesn’t use spanners…
From the Oxford English Dictionary:
fanboy; noun: see Jonno
conspiracy theorist; noun: see Jonno
paranoid; adjective: see Jonno
That’s funny, Dami, but I think Jonno deserves a break here. He’s obviously very passionate about the sport we all love. And, I’ve certainly been guilty of wondering whether a favorite driver has been the victim of team politics or competing sponsorship money. I guess it’s the nature of the beast.
@Robert Wood, don’t worry about dummi. He posts a continous stream of childish twaddle.
As opposed to….?
To what does this relate?
Perez is a good call actually, but they really need to give Wehrlein the seat. Takes the pressure off Hamilton (I guess we won’t hear any more talk about disciplining him…) and allows Pascal to prove his mettle. i wonder whether Alonso has been clever enough to engineer a break clause into his McLaren contract? he’d drive below his rate card for Mercedes…
What about Alexander Rossi, checks the US box and is proven quick
Rossi would be an interesting pick. I guess if anything could pry him out of his contract in Indycars and back to Europe a Mercedes drive would be it Simon. But not too sure they will be going that route.
Like Joe pointed out in the F1 podcast he is now an Indy 500 winner which makes him a very valuable marketing tool in indycar compared to the value he would have for Merc in F1 after only some races of experience for Manor only.
There is no value in indycar, so trying to market Rossi (or anyone else) there is pointless.
Yes, Martin, I agree that being the Indy 500 winner makes Rossi an interesting property. But let’s not kid ourselves, if Mercedes would come knocking with a 10 million/year 2 year contract, the Indycar series will not have that much of a glow on it anymore. The marketing value of Indycar is a fraction of F1, so the money available is also a fraction lower.
It isn’t going to happen.
My guess would be Alonso, he has said he will decide after test tbe new car if he stays with mclaren. So that’s my guess and we are all guessing really.
He can quit but that doesn’t mean he can race for Merc.
I believe its a case of when Alonso will replace does replace Rosberg so I think you will have egg on face Joe I think.
Alonso has just one year to go doesn’t he? And a habit of signing a year in advance.
Toto might want to snap him up now for 2018.
Geez Stephen, you drinking still? That was rubbish…..
+1 Peter. Obviously a man of letters with that “drinking still” line.
Toto Wolff has privately stated he wouldn’t pair Hamilton with Hamilton, according to Mark Hughes.
Seems logical, it’s impossible
Ha, typo. I meant Wolff has said he wouldn’t pair Hamilton with Alonso.
And if you swallow what you talking you could end up extremely ill.
It never ceases to amaze me how people can come onto this blog and ridicule Joe’s statements. How many stories has he effectively broken on this blog in the last month or so. Or more to the point when did he write something that proved to be totally inaccurate?
Honestly, I despair of nobodies who must have their say and ridicule the experts.
I am not talking rubbish I think it is very feasible for this to happen . I am giving an opinion which I am entitled to . Alonso will be looking to get in that Merc next yea trust me . I am very well by the way.
Did you talk to the team about the contract? Perhaps you should.
No one is saying it’s not feasible or indeed cannot happen, but where Joe has reported that as things stand Fernando cannot break his contract and take the drive the feasibility is remote at best.
For this to happen would require the contract Fernando has with McLaren to be ended by mutual consent and that effectively means buying it out. What’s in it for McLaren when they have just signed Zak Brown to help boost the sponsorship coffers and allow the best driver on the grid (in my opinion, but accept that’s a personal opinion which I too am entitled to) to go to the competitor with no like for like replacement available. In the alternative what’s in it for Mercedes-Benz to have to buy out a contract for a driver at the swansong of his career, when a number of driver’s become available on traditional terms a year later. And here I disagree with Joe on Wehrlein,he may be ready. In 12 months we may get to see if he is.
If Fernando broke his contract and walked out of McLaren they could and if the contract is governed by English law, would seek an injunction to stop him driving elsewhere. Would Mercedes-Benz with German corporate governance being different and quite socially and ethically responsible want to be involved in something like that, doubt it.
So yes it’s feasible but so is winning the lottery.
Me wonders if you are the Stephen Watson who used to make up the numbers as a back marker in Formula 3000.
What could be in it for McLaren is the price of the buyout, should Alonso intimate that if he is denied the opportunity he would join Button in retirement. Faced with losing him for nothing or losing him for several millions there would be only one wise decision for McLaren to make, and that is the one which would make them better off financially.
Lose Alonso, save money…
If Alonso decided to not drive, if a clause exists in his contract that allowed that, he would still be under contract to McLaren and could not drive for anyone else. If he retired then he would probably have to buy out the contract because he has a contract for x number of years to drive and be still would probably not be able to drive the Mercedes-Benz because if he retired he would have to make a comeback which would clearly have been a con in the first place.
Personally I’d like Weirlein to get the drive, the sport needs to a find a few more driver’s to be able to challenge Max Verstappen in the future, but think Bottas is best placed because he is managed by a company part owned by Toto Woolf, Williams need money to try to regroup and rebuild and while Stroll will be bringing a pot of gold, every team always needs more and finally they can possibly free up some cash on a change to their engine deal. But longer term I actually think Weirlein is a better prospect than Bottas.
Of course from a Team Willy perspective it’s not great, they may have a lot more disposable cash, but they will have a relatively inexperienced driver and a rookie in a new formula. That I think is more dangerous long term than them keeping Bottas to help Stroll settle and see if he is a prospect or if Dad has neutered the competition on the way up the ladder to ensure his boy won and got to F1.
Joe, when do teams have to confirm driver’s to the FIA for the following season?
Thursday afternoon in Melbourne
Realistically though the team will surely want the both drivers to do some of the pre season tests and log hours in the sim.
I would like to bet the seat will be sorted by the third week in January. The trickle down effect through the pack might take a bit longer though depending who gets the nod.
Fascinating. Someone is going to make a lot of cash over this.
They should test Mortara…
I’d agree. He has more than proven himself after ‘not meeting the Red Bull’ grade. Just look at his Macau record for starters.
My guess is Bottas
If Alonso leaves McLaren, will Button return?
Jenson wasn’t competitive this season. His time has passed. Retirement is right for him.
I hope so!
JEV!
Red Bull drivers won’t go anywhere because I think next season’s car could become dominant with the new engine from Renault (Tag Heur) and the Newey’s chassis.
Jeepers – what a wuss. Or was this all planned since last year ?
Bottas to Williams in exchange for discounted power units makes sense. Williams can bring Nasr in. Nasr worked with the team previously and has proven competitive in F1 and he’ll likely bring some kind of money with him.
Sergio Perez is an interesting suggestion. Currently in a Mercedes powered car in an over-achieving team who have done fantastically well. Wonder how watertight his newly signed contract is and would Force India be willing to let him go for in return for more favourable engine leasing terms from Mercedes?
How much Mexican sponsorship does he bring to Force India?
I think Perez’s situation will be complicated by sponsorship issues.
Perez will be crushed mentally by Hamilton.
+1
My gut feeling is Wherlin. No contract elsewhere, and what’s the point of a driver programme if you go elsewhere?
Joe, did you have any gut feeling or instinct this was coming?
Has to be Jenson Button, available, quick, experienced, worked with Hamilton before
Maybe the Jenson Button of five or six years ago, but not this older version.
…and utterly burnt out and all too ready to leave F1, from the looks of his last interviews with UK Channel 4. Don’t get me wrong, I’m a huge Jenson fan and would love to see him in the Merc, but it’s not going to happen.
I hope not. His time is done; he’s gotten slow, old, and whiny.
I can’t believe no one is saying Carlos Sainz’s name. He has proven himself highly capable, has experience a decent and would clearly work as a no. 2 in a development year.
I can’t imagine he would give up the chance, even if a 1 year contract.
If he has the normal Red Bull contract he doesn’t make any decisions for himself. Marko is in charge for all their contracts I believe and I dare say he won’t let him drive for Merc even if they wanted him.
Sainz is good enough to be given a standard 2+1 contract in my opinion. Personally, I think Sainz would be foolish to take a 1 year contract, as where would he go if Mercedes decided to dump him.
I would really like to see Carlos Sainz get the seat.
+1 and RB have nowhere for him to go whilst DR and VES occupy the RB seats. The prospect of staying at TR in a holding pattern can’t be overly appealing
If Max is locked up for years, how about Carlos Sainz? There’s no room for him at Red Bull and him moving would create a space for GP2 champ Pierre Gasly. Carlos has driven well and it’s a shame to see him treading water, but would RB release an asset to a competitor? It’s not really worth him leaving TR for anywhere other than a top 3 team if Williams are going backwards.
Fascinating, but I only see Merc getting a #2 driver to develop before Hamilton retires. There’s no way they will try to get an Alonso or Vettel. Too much stress to have both sides of the garage fighting for the DWC.
Assuming Merc continue their dominance (not a certainty at all), Hamilton now has the perfect opportunity to reach 100 GP wins and retire by 2020.
I’m not too convinced, they’ll want a #2. They might want someone able to secure them the contructor’s title even if the gap to Ferrari and Red Bull was a lot closer next year. I wouldn’t want to get Wehrlein if I had the chance, to get another race winning driver and maybe put Wehrlein in his midfield seat. So although I’d prefer Alonso I think they might go for Perez and put Wehrlein next to Ocon for 2017 – Force India seems prone to every money deal they can get.
So little difference to the last 3 years! They can handle 2 drivers going at it and it’s great media!
Significant rule changes coming, M-B definitely won’t want an inexperienced driver in the car. I don’t see either Ocon or Wehrlein, unless Brackley has no other options. I’m sure Hulkenberg is kicking himself for signing for Renault. I don’t think Williams will let Bottas go, they’ve always hated to change both drivers at the same time, they probably wouldn’t get a better 2017 driver, they have been putting massive effort into next year (I think they’re really hoping to win at least a race again), and I don’t think it will come to the point where M-B wants to press the issue. I don’t think the Finn’s rated *that* highly among top team management. Both Force India and Haas have said they would not stand in the way of a driver who has the opportunity to move to a larger team. Brackley’s #1 targets will be Perez and Grosjean, and I expect one of them will end up in the car. It doesn’t matter much here, I think, that Haas has Ferrari ties; I don’t think Ferrari have any interest in RoGro. Both Checo and Romain have more than enough experience to be helpful with a tricky transition, but neither (I believe) will be quite at the level to challenge Hamilton, over a season. On a given day, yes, but not on 20 weekends. M-B will be happy with that for a while, after three intense seasons. The contract offered will obviously be one that has probably no guarantees beyond 2017, and options in the team’s favor.
Did Merc get a whiff of this hence Ocon choice keeping Wherein back. ? Bottas to Merc Wherein to williams everyone happy?
JB could be a good option for Mercedes, actually — safe pair of hands, knows his way around Brackley, knows Paddy Lowe, still fast when he wants to be, and most crucially can be sat on the other side of the garage from Lewis without precipitating toy-pram ballistic events.
Presumably it depends on whether his “retirement” was driven by a genuine desire to take a break from F1, or was a fig leaf drawn over the fact that Ron Dennis had been trying to get rid of him for years and had finally succeeded. If JB still wants to race, then a one-year deal with Mercedes could be just the ticket.
I think the only way back for JB is in a McLaren if Alonso vacates. He seemed tired with F1, mental fatigue rather than a loss of talent or fitness, and I suspect that was from driving a rubbish car for too many years. It would be nice if he had one last season in a car worthy of him and could bow out with a few more podiums. At this point he would be a problem-free teammate for Hamilton and rack up solid points if he has a good car to work with, but Toto seemed rather dismissive of him earlier in the year when the pressure was on McLaren to kick him out in favour of Stoffel, so I can’t see him being JB’s biggest cheerleader.
What is this fast when he wants to be? He has been given a shed to drive and has kept his teammate honest
Carlos Sainz would be a great choice – but is he tied down to Toro Rosso ????
Some wild out of the box thinking. There are 3 unhappy driver-team marriages. Vettel is not happy, nor is the team with him. The remarks of mr Arrivabene where clear enough.
Alonso is very frustrated at McLaren, although the team is saying they want to keep him onboard.
Last but not least..the relation between Hamilton and Mercedes is certainly not optimal.
There was this weekend’s incident of ignoring team orders. But it seems there also haven been some huge internal struggles after the Spanish incident. In the end, no boss wants to be “controlled” by his employee. You can bet that the Mercedes board doesn’t like the behaviour of Hamilton.
So imagine that with this new situation at hand Mercedes decides to clean ship. Where should Lewis go . Ferrari, might be an option , but i think he rather goes back to McLaren. Ferrari are completely in the doll drums and will not have a winning car soon. More change at ‘the old family’ he still knows well, McLaren.
So a swap Alonso – Hamilton is on the boards.
Then the 2nd drive at Mercedes.
Even if it were possible with some extra money etc, i don’t think any of the Redbull drivers want to leave Redbull. The Newey designed car will probably be very good next year. Newey has proven to be a master of aerodynamics, next years most important factor.
Given the unhappy drivers and Mercedes being a German company I think they will go for Vettel. Will cost something, but in the end they will have a very strong, well-motivated pairing that can take on the fight against the Bulls.
What will happen at Ferrari ?? They probably buy Perez out of his contract with the money received for Vettel. Force India can use some money
For McLaren, it all depends on the car they produce. If they finally deliver their promises they also might have a very good team with van Doorne and a motivated Hamilton.
Again this is some wild, out of the box thinking and it would be the greatest silly season of all times. But in the end a lot of happy faces, i think.
Would be fun
I’ve been writing that a Hamilton/Vettel swap shouldn’t be discounted, but your scenario is also feasible. Many are refusing to recognize the way in which Rosberg’s decision has enhanced the potential for major changes.
Why on earth would Lewis want to go to Ferrari?
/Perez will be crushed mentally by Hamilton./
Perez wouldn’t care.
/Why on earth would Lewis want to go to Ferrari?/
He might want to go to Ferrari to have titles won with three different constructors, I suppose. But not for 2017, of course.
I can’t see that Ferrari would want to see a remotivated Vettel winning points in a M-B car. Also the intense rivalry between Lewis and Nico has been easy for the team to manage as they are both fairly level headed at their core – not something that could be said about Seb who is capable of some genuine irrationality at times.
Saying that, it is far easier coming up with driver options that are a no-go than ones that make sense for Mercedes-Benz. Plenty of head scratching going on at the moment I reckon.
I can’t see that Ferrari would want to see a remotivated Vettel winning points in a M-B car. Also the intense rivalry between Lewis and Nico has been easy for the team to manage as they are both fairly level headed at their core – not something that could be said about Seb who is capable of some genuine irrational behaviour at times.
Saying that, it is a lot easier coming up with drivers that are a no-go for Mercedes-Benz than ones that make sense. Some serious head scratching going on at the moment I reckon !
Karmen Jorda No brains decision…..
I’d love it if Carlos Sainz got the drive. Zero chance though I fear.
Paul Di Resta?
Anyone?
One thing is sure – whoever gets the drive will owe Nico a pint.
Alex Rossi. Mentioned above, but would be relatively cheap driver, has some name recognition as Indy 500 winner, and BE would love it for his US marketing. So would Liberty.
Sainz would be a fantastic choice if they can wrest him from Red Bull. Red Bull has no place in the near future for Sainz to go. Sainz was the equal or better of Verstappen most days.
Someone from DTM? Their current reserve driver? Lance Stroll? My guess is infinitely worse than yours!
The one Red Bull driver nobody has mentioned is Kyvat. His stock is not high with RB, and even if Ricciardo were to chose to move on at some point, it’s unlikely that KYV would be the one moving into the spot. I think they don’t rate him highly enough that they’d feel releasing him to M-B was a big threat to themselves, but he has a reasonable amount of experience, is reasonably quick, and has taken podiums, Based on all of that alone, I think they’d view him as an attractive #2 to Hamilton, and he knows he’s out of favor at RB, so he’s be happy to be #2 at M-B, even if there is no guarantee the car will be dominant like it has been, or even competitive, for that matter, but it’s reasonable to expect it will be. Stuttgart would love the number of cars Kyvat would sell for them in Moscow. I know one person who worked in racing, and he told me from the get-go in Hamilton’s negotiations with M-B in 2012 that they would sign him, because of the number of cars he sold for them, and that was probably an even bigger motivation for them than his driving. It would probably still be easier to get Perez or Grosjean, though, and don’t forget Maldonado is quick, has worked with M-B recently, has experience, and has no contract… though, I think they expect more points from their second car than a guy who only finishes half the races can bring. But, no contractual shenanigans to work through. *IF* they do end up putting Ocon or Wherlein in the car, Maldo might be an interesting option for test and reserve role, and he is reputed to be not a bad test driver.
Interesting thoughts about Kvyat, John. But, based on a recent trip to Moscow, Mercedes doesn’t seem to be having any trouble selling cars there.
Maldonado is a stretch for me, though. I think Wolff and Lauda want a driver who can win immediately and put pressure on Lewis. Pastor would cost them dearly in repairs.
I also don’t think it’s out of line to note German cultural habits and their respect (obsession?) for rules and orderliness. Lewis, while a huge talent, has proven to be unruly for them. As long as he wins, I think they shrug and enjoy it. But, should he begin to falter, I wonder ….
Joe, I would also like to congratulate you, and your posters, on having an open F1 forum where people can constructively discuss differing viewpoints in a civilized manner. I have heretofore refrained from joining in online discussions, except among closed groups, because they have been populated by people who know little about F1, but are full of opinions, which everyone else is entitled to hear.
+1 John. Couldn’t agree more.
Jorge Lorenzo as a random suggestion!
Yes I was thinking how good it would be to have him in the car after his test went so well driving a 2014 spec Merc last week – sadly there is very little chance of that happening. If you missed this story his feedback was he was surprised how easy it was to drive an F1 car, he had tested with an F2 ( Gp2?) car the days before and found it much more tricky to drive than the F1 car.
Wow. Didn’t see this one coming. I bet Toto has a headache.
Wehrlein, Ocon – too inexperienced. Bottas – can’t see Williams being happy to let him go without a massive pile of cash, perhaps more than Mercedes would be willing to pay. That leaves Perez… and Force India do have a bit of a track record of saying they’d never stand in the way of one of their drivers leaving for a top team.
/can’t see Williams being happy to let him go without a massive pile of cash, perhaps more than Mercedes would be willing to pay/
Cash is not the problem (just think how much Merc will spare on Rosberg’s contract). Williams needing an experienced driver along rookie is the problem.
Look at Ocon, Vestappen was ready for a top team after a short while in F1 and Ocon had the beating of him in F3. So why not, give him a try.
My gut feeling is that Bottas is the best choice. Mercedes could send a bit more assistance Williams way and throw Pascal Wehrlein in for the bargain. Mercedes get a quick, reliable driver at short notice and Williams get a young charger with a bit more experience than their other young charger.
Joe, given the dominance of Mercedes over the last few years, will the powers that BE (see what I did there?) be pushing for (not to mention facilitating) Merc to appoint a top driver who will be able to challenge Lewis, rather than a near-rookie? The alternative might be a walkover for Lewis, and a pretty boring season for the rest of us
The more I think about it, the more I think Jenson might be in the Box seat here…
I know he wants to go, but if you read some quotes from earlier this year, it is clear he’d only leave Mclaren if a competitive drive was available…. If this isn’t a competitive drive then I don’t know what one looks like.
His contract isn’t going to be anywhere near as tight as Alonso’s.
He is also likely to accept a 1 year deal, which means one of the other stars can come across in 2018 if Jenson doesn’t cut the mustard.
Otherwise it’s Bottas, Ocon or Pascal W
As an aside, and perhaps as a bit of whinge, but I do wish commenters would take a little more care about the spelling of other people’s names.
It’s simply all part of life’s rich pageantry, Ben. ; -)
No Robert, it is not part of life’s rich pageantry. It’s disrespectful to get something so simple as someone’s personal name so wrong.
Wherlin is the obvious. Merc won’t upset Hamilton with another big name.
The only big name that is compatible is Button but he has retired, he was fed up with F1 as much as Mclaren.
Whoever gets the drive… at this moment it’s quite entertaining thinking of all the possibilities or even dream about the ones I’d assume have a contract in place.
As a Button fan, I wouldn’t mind giving him a last shot with a good car. Then again he was pretty fed up at the end, so who knows a drive like that would energize him or Mercedes even wanting him.
For some reason I’m thinking they don’t want someone on a long term yet. Be it the junior drivers or waiting to see how 2017 will go.
Anywho, lots of potential candidates… *smiles*
Bottas has a contract with Williams but it can be managed by sweeten the PUs deal, from where i stand, Sergio Perez is in the same situation.
I’m surprised no-one has reeled off the list of drivers in Formula E – they’re not all has-beens!
Joe, if the actual F1 drivers are pretty much sown up, do you think there is anyone in a current F1 reserve/test driver position who might be suitable?
Sounds like Sergio Perez would be a good fit. Has solid experience, is not in a top team so may have a “top team” breakout clause, and has had promising performances. I don’t see why he couldn’t be bought out of his contract
Do driver contracts ever have an “if Drive X becomes available” clause? Historically, I can think of a few drivers who were just treading water in other teams waiting for a Ferrari drive. I wonder anyone has an “if a Mercedes seat is offered to me” get out clause? Hmmmm 🙂
Would love to see a Kubica comeback.
He’s driven in their simulator; Robert Kubica would be a great choice. Injuries however make that unlikely.
The price of getting Grosjean released from his Haas contract might not be so dear as the other options available to Mercedes. He had some really nice drives this year for the American squad. Solid, competitive driver.
If Mercedes choose a rookie for the number 2 seat, they can say goodbye to the Constructors Championship in 2017. I don’t think they want that because for the teams, that’s more important than the driver championship.
Red Bull and Ferrari will be very strong in 2017.
@Joe Saward Re: What now….
Over the last few years it was either an urban myth, or the truth that Nico Rosberg was superior in technical matters. I think the evidence points to Nico being superior, not just because of comments made by team personnel. So it would appear that Mercedes need a replacement who has top line development and testing skills, in addition to race winning skills. Surely this will be a major consideration with the 2017 rules change, making the choice of replacement, not so obvious. From where I sit, I don’t see the Mercedes juniors, having the required skills or experience. They might also need to look for a more experienced third driver.
When I think over the past couple of decades in F1, 3 of the 4 drivers who won the World Championship yet who I think of as A- or B+ performers would be Hill, Villeneuve and Rosberg, all of whom only won one title and all of whom were also the sons of previous Champions. The exception being Jenson. These are the guys who will always have a whiff of ‘yeah but they only won because they had the best car / good luck / better reliability etc etc’ clouding their achievements that the very elite never have to put up with.
Michael, Alonso, Hamilton, Hakkinen (and even Kimi in his day) were all firmly ‘A class’ drivers – the ones with that extra special something that elevated them. It’s a shame that Nico has retired like this (although I actually respect his decision to do so) because only by stepping up even higher and fighting hard for a second title would he ever have cemented his reputation among F1 fans as being able to lay claim to that absolute top shelf of class…
A point of accuracy here, Giles Villeneuve never won the championship. Should have done but never did.
Jacques. Not Gilles. Alas
You could add Mansell to that list of one-timers, he also wasn’t quite up with the top drivers of his era and won a title by getting in a dominant car alongside a mediocre teammate.
That’s rot, Mansell, although irritating at times for the same reasons that Lewis sometimes is, was a great driver. If one considers the talent around on the grid then, apart from Senna, by the mid 80’s on, Mansell was the fastest bloke out there, and in terms of outright pace, the only one to be a concern for Senna. By then Piquet, who had never been a speed demon, was content to win if he could and play the points if he could not, Prost was also headed that way having learnt from Lauda that one could win races and titles without beating oneself up and living over the limit. Only Senna was obsessed with being the fastest in every aspect of the weekend from start to finish, and if you look over those years, when Mansell had a car as quick as Senna had, then it was always him that was chasing and / or passing Senna!
The fact that Mansell was a great driver but a difficult person is not at all the same as Lewis.
How about Jordan king. Give lewis a no. 2 for a year then some fm a big name for 2018. All British team!!
/How about Jordan king/
How about a superlicense for the king of Jordan?
Pasta, anyone :-)……
Only on a plate with sauce :-p)
My bet says Bottas, the RB stuff is just wishful thinking. Merc will save $18m in Nico’s salary, so let’s say pay Bottas $6m and Williams $12m to buy him out and Williams take Nasr for next to nothing….maybe Bernie will pay his expenses…? Williams comes out of it $12m ahead and a 2 year experienced Brazilian who they already know from 2014.
Perez would score a lot of points, and has been surprisingly good since leaving McLaren. Not in Rosberg’s league, but safe pair of hands.
An interesting seat to drop into for any driver. Lewis seems to be getting on with the mind games ahead of time with these quotes from a BBC story:
“This is the first time he has won in 18 years [of racing together],” Hamilton said.
and
“I’ve never needed a team-mate to be able to push me,” he said. “The better the driver, the better it is for me when I finish ahead of them.”
and
He added: “I’m interested to see who would want to be my team-mate – and respect anyone that would want to.”
I’d vote for Button for a year – I’d like to believe that he’d want to race a comeptitive car, he would stand a chance of picking up some wins, and he has been shown to keep Hamilton honest in equal machinery. I realise that he’s lost something compared to Alonso this season, but my armchair opinion is that he didn’t really have the hunger to put it out there on the edge in a car like that one.
If not JB, I’d vote for a newbie. Who is coming up through the ranks – it would be a tremendous break for them, it would cast Mercedes in a great light, and if it goes wrong then nobody would really blame them.
So Joe, who would be your bet?
Bottas
With Jenson in the Williams?
most logical Joe indeed. And may be pretty easy to achieve that. but would Merc be that modest not to try to poach Sainz? Or it would be too many rocks to climb before getting him?
They have better choices
Joe, are you saying rate Bottas above Sainz? Interesting.
well, yes. to deal with Dr Helmet might be not the most pleasant thing to do :). No, i meant that as a Racer Sainz could be pretty high up , but of course if they can get someone like Bottas it would be about a lot easier deal. Or Nasr maybe, or to buy out someone from top teams out of their contract if they want so. Anyway i’m not pretending to be an expert at any capacity
That’s the likely choice. But Lewis will destroy him.
Well, maybe yes, but maybe no, too.
I acknowledge Lewis as a gifted driver, i.e., one of the real talents, like Max, that turn up from time to time. But Bottas is fast and cool like Kimi, and he has been driving a car that was clearly not as good as the one Lewis has enjoyed. This would the first opportunity in Valtteri’s career to drive a truly superior car, and I don’t think he would waste it.
So, GP, I wouldn’t place my bets too soon.
Is Williams really going to let Bottas go, given the inexperience of Stroll?
Wehrlein seems sensible, but Button could be an interesting choice for a year if they want someone who will push Lewis a bit more and give more consistent feedback for development..
FI chose Ocon, because Nico had already explained to Toto how things might pan out. So Wehrlein is the Merc obvious choice.
He is a shoe-in, despite today’s apparent head scratching. If he does not shape-up against Lewis, then Ocon will be their future in 2018.
You don’t spend money advancing young driver’s careers to then chose JB, Bottas etc.
This is just not true.
I really have no idea either, but when Lewis was put on the naughty step for Sunday’s misdemeanour, (suddenly had an illness) it was Wehrlein who tested the tyres, last Tuesday.
The architecture of the 2017 cars is probably pretty firm now, so Ocon’s height could probably slot into The Hulk’s envelope at FI, whereas Nico and Lewis are both quite slight so someone who is known to fit their envelope might also be important.
Bottas’s stature probably also can be easily slotted in, but I am sure you recently told us that Williams will have additional funding next year and need his skills to understand Stroll’s abilities.
Wehrlein would be the natural candidate. I like Sainz better than others, which you missed to mention, does Red Bull has him locked?
Nigel Mansell never officially retired, right?
Joe, it will probably be Bottas, but how cool would be to see Sainz Jr. on a top drive?!?
If Bernie or LIberty have got any sense they’ll pay whatever it takes to get Alonso, Ricciardo, Verstappen or Vettel into Nico’s Mercedes, because if next year’s car is anywhere near as dominant as 2016’s the season will be over by Monaco and the only people left watching will be anoraks like…well, like us, I suppose.
Bottas *might* step up to the job, in the way drivers often do when they’re first presented with winning cars, but for every Keke or Mika there’s a Stefan Johansson or Heikki Kovalainen – good, but not World Champion good.
This decision is way too important to be left to Mercedes alone.
Joe, I wonder if Alonso could trigger his get-out clause due to a recent major management restructure @ McLaren …. just an excuse for him to leave with immediate effect.
Felix Rosenquist ??
Well Joe, so much for a quite off season.
Surely Merc won’t use a youngster as they covet the constructors championship above all? They’ll be wanting a race winner and lots of constructor points. Driver relations will be low on their list of priorities.
It’s not about coveting anything. They get paid on constructor points, not driver points.
What about Perez to MB for a one year contract, move Pascal to FI and let the merc youngsters fight it out next year. Perez already has the Merc engine and has matured over the last 3 years all he needs now is a top team.
First off Mercedes must be able to find someone who’s not going to carry a lot of secrets from his current team onto them. By that I meant Team A will not be willing to release driver X to race for Mercedes if X is an insider in Team A’s project that could fall onto Mercedes’s hands.
Second I find telling the news that states some drivers are too young to race for Mercedes. Ok, they can be young, but isn’t that Max something so young yet and Red Bull didn’t waste a second to get him on board? I guess that means we won’t see a good (great!) value like that Max so soon….
I think Jenson wasn’t shown the new car/project anymore as soon as he and Ronzo talked about his retirement….
Being young and being ready are not the same thing
We may not have said that two years ago.MV!
In retrospect, it would have been better to put Max straight in at RBR and give Kvyat three years at STR, before bringing in Gasly next year. But even Red Bull felt Max needed some time to adapt to F1 (1.5 years in the end, begrudgingly for Marko).
Mercedes are committed to their juniors, but even then they want to give Ocon a year at SFI etc.; Bottas has been waiting for a top drive, and we already know he can beat Ricciardo from the 2008 FR2.0 season – Wehrlein at Williams would place him well to battle with Ocon next year and continue his development.
Buttons tweet yesterday did strike me as ‘interesting’ “jensonbutton_22Reacquainted with my Partner in crime! First time I’ve seen my Brawn car since winning the World champs.. where have the last 7 years gone”
With the likelihood that Red Bull and Ferrari climbing all over Mercedes in 2017, I believe Wolff’s thinking will be that the second seat needs to be occupied by a driver who will deliver points and possibly wins on a consistent basis and right from the start of the season. The Constructors’ title is very important. That suggests Bottas to me and of course, Sir Frank will be quite happy, as ever, to look kindly at any largesse likely to be offered from his engine supplier.
Button.
Anthony Davidson for me, doesn’t he still do sim work in Brackley? Would be amazing to see him in a top car if only for a year. Race fit from WEC & the technical mind needed for the new regs.
Trump for Mercedes! He’ll build a wall and MAKE MERCEDES GREAT AGAIN! TRUMP! TRUMP! TRUMP! U-S-A! U-S-A! U-S-A!
Sigh…
Do we dare call his retirement the Rosbexit?
I would love to see Hulkenberg in the car as he has never had a chance to show his true speed. If he had remained at FI he would have to have been a leading candidate with two feet already in the door being both German and in a Mercedes powered team. And damn quick to boot. Perhaps Mercedes could pry him out of the Renault by offering up Ocon and some cash? German team gets a German driver, French team does the same and both move up in the world. That make to much sense to happen in F1 though…
Agreed, Hans. During his career, the Hulk has displayed a lot of talent and speed, but apparently is destined to be one of those guys who’s always in the wrong place at the right time.
Paul di Resta
Let me complete your unfinished sentence.
Paul di Resta is a second rate driver and has no chance of getting back into F1.
And you thought slip away for a holiday while it’s quiet , LOL
Joe, will 2017 be only the fourth season in F1 when the reigning world champion is not present – after 1974 after Sir Jackie Stewart retired, 1993 after Nigel Mansell retired, and 1994 after Alain Prost retired?
Also this season has witnessed three drivers retiring (or at least announcing retirement), two of whom are world champions. Has something like this happened before?
No, 1959 and 1971 leap immediately to mind. There may be others.
Thanks for reminding me Joe. 1971 did not have the reigning world champion thanks to the tragic death of Jochen Rindt while Mike Hawthorne had retired after securing the title in 1958. Silly me…
You was expecting a quiet winter wasn’t you? lol
As Mercedes were so dominant this year, there is a chance they will still be the top car next year even if Red Bull and the others are closer. And with Hamilton likely to be the clear #1 driver in the team (even with someone like Bottas), then we might see him winning 12 or more races in 2017.
Maldonado……. 😉
Paul di Resta would be my choice for a one year stop gap. Competent, non-controversional, available and quick on his day. The only problem is the language barrier – ye’know, ye’know, ye’know.
The history of having 2 world champions or people with the ability to be world champion in the same team is that it ends in tears often in the very short term.I think this cuts out Vettel,Alonso and the 2 Red Bull drivers(particularly Verstappen) from joining Lewis as much as it would be fun to watch.
I think Toto will be looking at a high quality driver from the next tier-Bottas,Perez,Sainz-and then working out how to make it happen.Hulkenberg would have been a lock if he was still at Force India I think.
Who does Bernie want might be a smart questions…
Still wonder what Nico was saying to him after the race??
am I the only one that , listening to Button in recent weeks , got the impression that he doesn’t actually to retire from F1 but is just bored from driving uncompetitive cars ?
I realise that he hasn’t actually retired , even has a contract of sorts for 2018 I believe
what I think he needs is a new challenge and 2017 with mercedes sounds like a marriage made in heaven to me , and if toto’s man bottas IS good enough to get the seat then it would be available in 2018
Button is as fit as any driver in F1 , and the first season of a new formula is not the time to make any long term commitment to anyone except a top driver if you are a top team
I would have a testing shoot-out with a Mercedes W05 to pick my next driver.
Actually, that’s not a bad idea. I don’t think Lewis will appreciate it if Mercedes use his old car though. Just in case someone crashes it. 😉
Former F1 drivers still competing but out of contract;
Race winners;
Montoya, Webber, Maldonado
Selected others;
Senna, de Grassi, Vergne, Buemi, de Resta, Davidson, Lotterer
My choice would be Andre Lotterer who easily ticks all the boxes.
I’m afraid that this is all straight out of La-La Land
Decisions, decisions. With the change in regulations and the importance of the constructors championships I don’t think Toto would go for somebody so inexperienced. What he wants is a fast racer who can understand feedback on their cars to make their performance greater and obviously he would want someone who can be popular publicly. He has to admit many teams won’t do a deal on the drivers (Red Bull, Ferrari and McLaren) and ideally someone who can get on with Hamilton. With Alonso and Vettel being available for 2018 would a 1 year contract be better? Looking at the above, if he thinks Jenson would be motivated by a Merc he may be the best bet. However, if he feels that the McLaren has reduced his competitiveness and that F1 is not for him anymore it must surely be Bottas who would then (if necessary) go on to Renault for 2018. There might be consideration given to Perez, Grosjean or possibly even Nasr but at the end of the day no-one knows, probably including Toto Wolff.
Joe, what about Nasr? Would it be such a wild shot to imagine him going to Merc? How good (or bad) is he seen by the teams?
The shuffling of drivers may well open up a seat for him. I hope so. He deserves it…
Mercedes want an experienced driver, so Bottas makes most sense to me. Williams might release him in return for a big cheque and /or cheaper engines?
Then what would Williams do? Nasr seems like a good option, the team know him, he has two years experience, admittedly at the back of the grid, but I think he performed better than his teammate. He might also bring some Banco do Brasil dollars too.
That option seems more likely for Williams than Werhlein, unless Merc / Williams engineers think he is the next big thing.
Joe surprised you are not that positive towards the Sainz option.
He seemed to me to hold his own against Max at TR.
Interested in your thoughts though.
He’s under contract to Red Bull and beyond that what is the point of a discussion?
I still not sure that STR really want Daniil Kvyat – there is a big IF and that is his mental strength – in 2015 he did reasonanably well. I think the best option that looks like a contract negotiation could be done is Perez. That would probably been a safe option.
Well, unexpected, but hats off to Nico for a brave decision.
As for the speculation on his successor:
Button? Nope, clearly quit, made up his mind, seemed to have a bit of his edge this year
Massa? Nope, gone, wasn’t his best since ’09 sadly, not someone Mercedes would want now
Bottas? Perhaps, but is he as good as they said two years ago? Didn’t show much this year, but then the Williams wasn’t that good too this year
Max, Seb, Dan, Kimi, Fernando? Nope, all under contract
Hulk? Can he get out of his Renault contract? Would be great to see a driver of his stature in the Merc…
Pascal? FI picked Ocon over him, and with good cause, Ocon is like a fish in the water in F1, Wehrlein seemed to struggle, even to Rio
Perez? Why not, he’s not the man he was struggling at McLaren, he’s matured a lot at FI
Ocon? Yes please. Put Pascal in the FI for a year, so he can show his worth, but to have Ocon race Max for the title for the next couple of years to come (I’m blatently ignoring Lewis here), that would really be something!
But then again, Joe said Bottas, and usually (or: always) he’s right…
I’m not sure on this one…
So many great suggestions, reminds me how stupid the new superlicense points system is. Would have loved to see someone truly leftfield get a chance.
Personally I’d pick someone that everyone knows is fast, but got dumped from the F1 ladder for whatever dumb reason. Antonio Felix Da Costa, Robin Frijns, Felix Rosenquivst… or bring someone over from the US like Newgarden or Power.
Even if the Mercedes drive goes to an obvious suspect, 3 top drivers retiring in one season is an unusual chance to get some new blood into F1.
graham228221>
> So many great suggestions, reminds me how stupid the new superlicense
> points system is.
Apart from Lorenzo (not a serious proposition) and Newgarden (not interested), who has been suggested that is blocked by the new points system?
I just wonder if Mercedes have already lined up the 2018 seat and are choosing a placeholder who can do the development role, bring the car home and score regular points leaving the race winning to Hamilton. It has to be someone who can do the winning if HIM (His Imperious Majesty) breaks his car.
That is whole clutch of Formula E and DTM ex F1 drivers who will come cheap but need much time analysing their relative performances and technical skills. I don’t think Bottas would take a 1 year contract, leave Williams and have no home to go to: unless Mercedes do a loan deal with Williams that puts him back there in 2018. Be amusing if Bottas beat HIM…….
I would like to see Sainz in the seat but that isn’t going to happen. If Red Bull wanted to make room for Gasly they would have already dumped Kvyatt. Most likely Bottas as Williams have always been prepared to entertain a good deal in return for financial security. They have their shareholders to answer to and can see the long term. Outside chance dark horse? Paul Di Resta.
How far off single seater racing is Robert Kubica Joe? Would be great to see him back in F1 and I imagine no contracts to buy out there. I’m sure he’d tested at Enstone and Brackley this year…
He’s not ready, probably never will be
/How far off single seater racing is Robert Kubica Joe?/
He wouldn’t be competitive at some tracks and that’s enough reason to expect he would not go for the seat (regardless of all other ifs).
Believe me, we are particularly interested in this issue in Poland 🙂
I don’t think he can do it. Or he would be doing it!
He can do most of tracks. He can’t do Monaco and alikes.
Which means he rather can’t and doesn’t want to try, even if he could be as fast as before for the large part of the season.
It’s not WRC where some people do only tarmac rallies or only gravel rallies.
Wishful thinking: Kamui Kobayashi. Or maybe Timo Glock.
If Bottas were the preferred candidate for the hottest available seat, what do you think Williams would need in return for releasing him from his contract?
A lot
Toto said over the weekend that he is disinclined to disrupt Ferrari, Maclaren and Williams by taking any of their drivers at this late stage of the year. That cuts out a lot of the speculation..
Scenario 1
Button for 1 year, then Vettel
Scenario 2
Button’s not interested, So Ocon or Wehrlein for 1 year to see if they can hack it.
Toto may well have said that he’s “disinclined” but that wouldn’t stop him doing it if any of those drivers were available, I shouldn’t think!
I can see no situation where they’d take Button – he’s a nice guy, but he’s just not that quick any more (unless that was solely a result of dragging that dog of a car round at the back of the field) – and they need someone who can reliably bring the car home 2nd and push Hamilton. I just don’t see Button doing that.
Wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Perez in the Mercedes – Force India need the money, Perez is a quality driver, and there’s the Mercedes connection there already. The difficulty there would be Chico’s desire to have a contract for longer than a year – they’d probably have to sign a 2+1, which then means they couldn’t grab Vettel/Ricciardo etc etc when they come up for contracts.
But who knows? This is 2016, where we’ve had Trump and Brexit, neither of which I saw coming. Mercedes could sign Ronald McDonald and I’d no longer be surprised (though the shoes might be a problem).
I think that Toto will be doing Formula One a great disservice if he decides to put Werhlein in the car. I can imagine how after the last three years that putting in a promising rookie in the car as de facto number two would be attractive, but it will be a disaster for the the sport, and ultimately Mercedes AMG Petronas. Rightly the team has won a lot of plaudits and friends over the last three years for letting Hamilton and Rosberg race and this has kept fans interested and led to moments of great excitement and controversy. One can only imagine how stultifying the last three years would have been with an agreed number one and number two at Merc.Hopefully Toto will take the long view and realise the best way to protect his shareholding in the team is to get the best driver he possibly can in the second car irrespective of any contractual situation. If he does take the easy way out I hope he tries to leverage Ocon out the Force India as he seems the more promising of the two Merc juniors in my opinion.
I think Merc should sign Button on a one-year deal. My feeling is that he would get motivated again by the thought of one last potential title battle, and be willing to postpone his non-F1 plans for one year. He works well with Hamilton, he isn’t political, and he would be very good at developing the new car. McLaren would be unlikely to stand in his way. Then at the end of the year he can walk away from F1 properly, and whoever performs the best out of Ocon and Wehrlein can slot in nicely for 2018.
If Button is up for it, I think it’s a great solution.
Alonso vs Hamilton part II = Box office gold for f1. This is what Bernie wants, this is what the fans want and this is what Mercedes needs.
Tell that to the lawyers…