The Japanese word for island is “jima” while kan (観) means “to see” and Kū (空) means “the sky”, thus the word Kankūjima translates as the “island to see the sky” or perhaps the more poetic “island for contemplating the heavens”. The straight bar above the u is something foreign (and thus slightly scary) to English-speaking peoples, but it is nothing to worry about, it simply tells you that the vowel in question is a long one. Actually, it’s called a macron, but let’s not get into French things for now…
The island for contemplating the heavens is in Osaka Bay and it is entirely man-made, not so that philosophers could go there to gaze at the sky, but rather because the city needed a new airport – and they had no space left on the mainland to build one.
Lack of space is something that is very obvious in Japan but, weirdly, it ranks only 44th on a list of the world’s most crowded countries, which is headed by motor racing hotspots Macau, Monaco and Singapore. The thing about Japan is that because of its mountainous nature, only a small amount of land is habitable. Two-thirds of the country is forest with 12 percent left for agriculture and only three percent available for residential use. This is why Tokyo is the most densely populated city in the world, with 6,100 people per spare kilometre and why Japanese people prize clever things which take up little space. It is why Japanese engineers have long led the world is all kinds of different industries. Small really is beautiful, even for gangly gaijin (foreigners), who find it hard to inhabit the little places that the locals like to snuggle into. Japan is the nation that invented capsule hotels, where the Sony Walkman was developed, where people value uncluttered lives and yearn for minimalism and doing things well. There is nothing sloppy in Japan, apart from some of the food. The trains run on time, people queue up and they always go the extra mile, which is why you see race fans with intricate, if rather, eccentric hats, jackets and so on. Americans are the opposite, of course, with their vast cars, their vast suburbs and houses the size of entire Japanese suburbs.
Anyway, to get back to Kankujima. Some bright spark decided that the best thing to do to solve Osaka’s airport problem would be to create new land and build an airport on it. Land reclamation has been going on for centuries with lands being drained and sea walls built, notably by the Dutch. Others followed and in Osaka, it looked like a good idea.
The water was only 25ft deep and although the bay was prone to earthquakes and typhoons and the sea floor was silt, engineers calculated that it would all compact and become solid and would then be able to support the weight of the airport buildings. It was all built at a higher level than required, in the knowledge that it would sink, but since Kankujima opened in 1994 it has sunk 38 feet into the bay. More money was spent to raise the seawall around the airport and other measures have been taken to keep the airport above sea level, but it is still sinking… and rather than looking at the skies, the engineers are looking more at the water in the hope that the airport does not disappear…
Calculation and data, one can surmise, can do a lot but it isn’t always correct. At this time of year, Japan is besotted with cherry blossom and people plan their holidays so that they can be in the right place when the flowers come out. One can imagine them all getting up in the morning and hunching over their wirelesses to listen to the Japanese Home Service as they munch on their breakfast of grilled fish, fermented soybeans and rice… I am not kidding they really do have cherry blossom forecasts and they eat grilled fish for breakfast, although over the last 35 years I’ve had all manner of treats which they think the Westerners will like in the morning, notably cold spaghetti and fish and chips.
The forecasting, rather than the breakfast choices, are vaguely scientific as the temperatures dictate this sort of thing. The blossoms first appear in the south, usually in Kagoshima, on the island of Kyushu. This year, however, the first flowers were in Kochi on the island of Shikoku on March 23 and Nagoya saw its trees bloom five days later, slightly behind the usual date. Up in the north the city of Sapporo will have to wait until April 25, although this is before the usual date of May 1.
The trouble with number-crunching and making predictions is that things do not always work out as expected.
So, that’s enough about Mercedes F1, let’s now lift our eyes to the skies and look at something that currently seems a little more stable than the airport and the cherry blossom: the F1 driver market. If you read the internet at the moment you can find a rumour about pretty much every possible combination of team and driver, with what appear to be learned treatises about why these make sense.
If you do that terribly old-fashioned thing of going into the F1 Paddock and actually talking to people, you discover that no-one knows what is going to happen, least of all the team bosses. They are all trying to figure out their next moves because the market is locked. Social media may have democratised the world but democracy without education is a dangerous thing…
The reason that nothing is happening is that no-one wants to make a move until Max Verstappen decides what he wants to do in 2026 – and he is in no hurry. The problem is that many drivers dare not commit for 2025 until they know what might happen in 2026 and so no-one is moving. For the last couple of weeks there have been whispers that there is about to be an announcement from Aston Martin about Fernando Alonso being retained for 2025 and 2026, but it hasn’t happened. Why?
Well, it is now clear that Honda no longer has any objection to employing Alonso, despite their history together. Thus, the reason that there have been delays is probably related to Fernando not wanting to commit while other possible options could still be open to him. Having said that, the delays could also be due to the fact that Aston Martin is looking at alternatives. This might possibly be Carlos Sainz, but some think that the top of the Aston Martin wish list for 2026 is Verstappen and that the team is busy wooing him and will not commit to Alonso until they know for sure. (A minute or two after I posted this story, Aston confirmed Alonso, so now we know that both parties did not have better options). Mercedes is definitely in the hunt for Max and so cannot decide on what to do in 2025… and so the market is stuck. I’m told that Audi is trying to force quick answers out of its top choices: Carlos Sainz and Nico Hulkenberg, but that may not be too smart a strategy as top drivers will always wait on the best drive… and no-one in the world thinks Audi is going to be that.
There are some teams that really need to make decisions about drivers in 2024 because they need better performance, but if they cannot offer rides in 2025 and 2026, they are stuck. How will the log jam be broken? Could it be that the market, which usually develops from the top down, will go from the bottom up this year, as the desperate make decisions to secure whatever they can.
Or is that like cherry blossom starting in the north and heading south?
There is a fair bit of desperation at the lower end of the grid as the top five teams are monopolising the points-scoring, which means that scoring ANY point is difficult. Yuki Tsunoda has thus far been the best of the rest, while Daniel Ricciardo has been struggling. The idea that the Australian might get back up to speed and replace Sergio Perez at Red Bull is now fading and he is fighting to hold on to his RB drive, with Liam Lawson waiting in the wings.
Williams has a similar problem in that Alex Albon is almost able to score points but Haas has picked up the few crumbs available, while Logan Sargeant needs to deliver NOW if he is to survive. The problem for Williams is that its own young drivers are too far out to jump into F1 and unless the teams wants to train a rival team’s youngster, the choices are limited. There has been much talk about Williams taking on Mercedes youngster Andrea Kimi Antonelli as soon as he qualifies for a superlicence in the summer but it may be that Mercedes will want him to 2025 because the teams needs someone to fill Lewis Hamilton’s seat. The problem is the same at Red Bull because if Max Verstappen is leaving in 2026, you would want a better option to lead the team than Sergio Perez. True, Sergio rose to the job in Suzuka, where Christian Horner offered to pay him $10,000 if he got on the front row, but then a driver who gets better at contract time is not a choice that scientific engineers like to make. Horner, incidentally, has to pay the money to Bernie Ecclestone because Perez owes Bernie money from some previous wager. Alex Albon is obviously an option for Red Bull in 2026, while Tsunodas’s future will likely be with a Honda-powered car in the future but he cannot get into Aston Martin until Lance Stroll gives up trying and he is not going to do that until he sees that the 2026 car is not a championship winner.
No-one, incidentally, is interested in Sebastian Vettel, despite idle chitchat in the Germanic media. Nor for that matter is anyone lying awake at night trying to work out how to secure the services of Mick Schumacher. Ferrari want Haas to take Oliver Bearman and the American team seems happy enough with that (if there is some sweetener in the deal), but it has then to decide which of the old blokes it wants to lose… Both seem keen on staying.
Valtteri Bottas and Guanyu Zhou would probably like to stay because there are few other options for them and one or both of the Alpine drivers would also like to get a better drive, as Alpine is not looking very good at the moment.
We will have to see if anything changes in the market but there is no reason why there will be any movement until Max makes a decision…
Guanyu Zhou is going to be in the spotlight in Shanghai as he will be the first Chinese driver to dispute a Chinese Grand Prix and he seems to be on the verge of super stardom as he is about to become a much more recognised figure at home in China, which he left when he was 13 to pursue a career in international motor racing by moving to gorgeous, glamorous Sheffield in Yorkshire, where he learned to say “Ey up, ‘ow’s it goin?” and “Ye won’t get owt for nowt”, which has helped him climb the racing ladder.
A film about Zhou’s life will be released by the Shanghai Media Group, a state-owned company, one of China’s largest media conglomerates, on the Friday before the race in Shanghai. The 90-minute Chinese language documentary, has been timed to coincide with the return of F1 to China after five years away, is entitled The First One, it follows Zhou’s rise. This will go on general release in thousands of cinemas across the country and is likely to turn Zhou into a star with more followers than Gunther Steiner (if such a thing is possible).
Elsewhere, real news is thin on the ground. Liberty Media wants to acquire MotoGP but no-one in F1 is overly interested in whether they succeed or not. There is also only moderate interest in what happens with Mohammed Ben Sulayem and all the President’s men at the FIA. When all is said and done, the sport runs on money that comes from F1 and the members of the federation must figure out if they want the cash or whether they will continue to support someone who has been rocking the boat since he was elected. In F1 there are few who will give a second thought if the gentleman in question falls overboard, although they will (of course) be polite to his face. The F1 world is watching what happens in the hope that enlightened leadership will emerge, but obviously does not want to be seen to be involved in any of the goings-on. Some FIA folk imagine that F1 is behind moves to get rid of the President but I see no evidence of this. If the FIA is not what F1 wants, at the right time, it will do its own thing, so all the shenanigans are really not that important.
What is beginning to happen is talks about the new commercial agreements that are required before the end of 2025. These will govern the sport for a five-year period, from the start of 2026 until the end of 2030. It has long been agreed that the Concorde Agreement will feature “substantially the same terms” until 2030, after which the parties will negotiate a new deal “in good faith” for 2031 and beyond. Thus, the terms needing to be negotiated are not as significant as some might think.
However, there are obviously changes that the various parties would like to see given the way the sport has developed. Most of the teams seem keen to reduce the financial advantage that Ferrari enjoys, getting five percent of the revenues of F1 before prize money is calculated. This is not really justifiable given the strength of Ferrari these days and its ability to earn more money from sponsors and merchandise, just because it is Ferrari. Some teams want the whole thing scrapped but most will be happy to cap the cash, or reduce it by half.
Most would like to see no owner having more than one team, but Red Bull is not keen on that idea (obviously), while most teams (apart from the little ones) want to see all teams building more of their own stuff, rather than buying it from big teams.
The other point that most wish to see is that there be only 10 teams. Obviously this upsets American fans who see some kind of conspiracy against America, but this thinking really makes no sense at all: Liberty Media is an American corporation, listed on the NASDAQ, with a lot of American investors and they would all love to see a successful American team.
The trouble is that a new team allowed to enter F1 would get an equal share of the prize money, even if there is little chance of the newcomer being competitive for a period of years. This is seen to be unfair to the existing competitors because the dilution fee of $200 million is now well out of date, given the prize money and the team valuations. On paper, a newcomer could invest $500 million to get through the door and get a licence and then would instantly have access to the same prize money as existing teams – and a valuation of around $1 billion, without needing to be competitive at all. This seems unreasonable to some, who feel that it is better to have newcomers pay the market rate to get a franchise. Teams can now be very successful if they have made all the investments required because they are restricted in what they can spend on building and racing the F1 cars, thanks to the budget cap. Most teams are still investing to become more competitive but the big ones are now printing money. Mercedes Benz Grand Prix Ltd will soon publish its financial results for 2023 and there are whispers that this could see the first F1 team with a turnover of more than £500 million ($630 million) a year. The company is expected to make an after tax profit of about $100 million, after last year’s $113 million, so one can see the earning potential.
Obviously, as they are restricted in what they can spend money on F1, some of the big teams are now using the money coming in from F1 to expand other businesses, with Mercedes doing an America’s Cup programme with Ineos, Ferrari putting money back into the car company and Red Bull not far off unveiling Adrian Newey’s Red Bull RB17 track car. This will be officially unveiled at Goodwood in the summer but Red Bull is busy selling the 50 cars that will be built. These cost about $7 million each and around half the cars have already been sold. Newey showed up in Japan as much to go racing as to meet with a bunch of Japanese billionaires to explain why his car is such a great investment. All those who are rumouring about Newey leaving Red Bull should perhaps note that he is heavily involved in plans to build the next Red Bull supercar, which will have more F1-related technologies, but will cost a little less than the RB17 and will have a bigger production run.
One can see why teams not involved in Formula 1 would want to get hold of a entry as quickly as possible before the team valuations go through the roof and they cannot afford to pay the going rate. The current system is messy in that it requires the FIA and the commercial rights holder to agree on whether a new team should be allowed to join. In the case of Andretti this has caused problems and the FIA is currently also having to deal with a law suit from Hitech Grand Prix, which wants the federation to explain why it accepted the Andretti bid and rejected Hitech, which believes it had a better bid than Andretti.
Elsewhere there is demand for slots on the F1 calendar as well and Turkey seems to be keen on getting back on the schedule. The Turkish government agency that manages public property recently held a tender for the operation of the Istanbul Park circuit. This was won by a private firm called Bilim Eğitim Kurumları AŞ, a subsidiary of Can Holding, it says it will to pay more than $117 million for a licence to operate the track for 30 years. That all sounds wonderful but one of the conditions of the deal is that the operator of the circuit “will guarantee that Formula 1 races will be held at the circuit and that an agreement with F1 will be reached within one month of the contract being signed”. If this does not happen the contract will be terminated. If the firm can get a deal (which is pretty unlikely given the time scale) it will be able to develop the site and build a shopping mall, an adventure park, an automobile museum and an entertainment centre. The key question is whether F1 sees the track as a place it wants to be… and I’m not convinced there is that much interest at the moment.
The folks at Alpine insist that there is no intention of the team being sold, despite the troubled state it is currently in. The cars did look a little better in Suzuka, but there are still staff moving out, the most recent being Pierre Genon, the head of performance systems. The big thing for Alpine is to find a way to attract top quality engineers and that requires them being convinced that the team is moving forward. It is a long job. Still, the Alpine road car project is rolling onwards and I see in my local newspaper that Alpine is buying up land around its factory in Dieppe in order to expand its road car activities, so obviously the top management see the F1 setbacks as a bump in the road. The fact that their decisions created the problem is neither here nor there…
Former Alpine F1 boss Otmar Szafnauer was in Suzuka, carefully avoiding saying anything about his future. He is on gardening leave at the moment but he did not show up in Japan just to drink tea with his old mates at Honda.
The other odd thing in the Suzuka Paddock was the presence of Toyota motorsport management types, including Kazuki Nakajima, Pascal Vasselon and Masaya Kaji, the general manager of Toyota Gazoo Racing. They were hanging out in McLaren where Ryo Hirakawa is currently acting as a reserve driver, while Toyota is also funding Ritomo Miyata in Formula 2. Does this mean that Toyota is considering doing things in F1? Probably not, but it helps to recruit young drivers for its other projects to be able to offer them chances at the highest level of the sport…
Who knows, one of them may end up blossoming into a star. Nothing wrong with dreaming big dreams…
joeblogsf1 
It is being reported that Fernando has signed with AM until end of 2026 – one piece of the puzzle in place!
Yes, about two minutes after I posted the blog!!!
As always, a fantastic read … thank you!
I see no sign of that yet. The whole project is focussed on 2026.
This seems to be the best choice for both Fernando and Aston Martin. I’m wondering when Lawrence Stroll’s partners will tire of Lance’s poor performance. It’s holding Aston back in the Constructors race. Did I read somewhere that a one place improvement in Constructors is worth about $10 million a season?
Don’t you love it when wildly profitable companies collude to limit their expenditures for staff, among other things, in an effort to force exploding valuations and tens of millions of annual profits for their shareholders?
It’s how US sports operate. If the teams (franchises) all work together to limit costs then even the worst NFL or NBA franchise will consistently make large profits. Sporting success is almost irrelevant. What is key is ensuring it is competitive so that peple keep on watching.
Joe, as regards the section discussing the RB17 track car as well as the plans for the next Red Bull super car, would this be a basis for the Red Bull organization to enter and compete in the hypercar division at Le Mans in the very near future?
I doubt there is room in the entry.
Unless they committed to a full season I guess.
Thanks, Joe.
Brilliant, thoughtful and fun
as usual.
Dave OBrien
Great stuff as always Joe. Are there any other F1 writers/journos/podcasters you would recommend for those of us that enjoy your stuff?
Who am I to judge?
As always a great read!! Joe is amezing with Paddock’s information! But why, when you talk about young people, you barely talk about Felipe Drugovich… He is a serious candidate for those vacancies for rookies that may arise! I wanted to understand! Thank you very much!
If he isn’t mentioned it is because he is not being talked about. I guess he’s in the wrong place…
Makes sense. But talking to some Brazilian reporters, it is possible to identify the movement of their managers for vacancies at Williams, Sauber/Audi and Haas. We don’t know if he will succeed, but he is trying. Strange international media reporters not paying attention to a unanimous F2 Champion, surpassing Doohan, Lawson, Pourchaire…. In private tests Doing better times than Doohan and doing well in F1 training, like in Abu Dhabi ahead of Stroll and P2 behind Russell. I don’t see any mention of why is he Brazilian? Thanks for answering my question.
Felipe is a third-year F2 Champion. That alone disqualifies him from any serious contention for a seat not paid-for by his backers.
I thoroughly enjoy your insights, they are a breath of fresh air in world of keyboard warrior opinions,…here’s to good old journalism!
My question is regarding the Max bit. We know he is set at least to 2026 though he says he intends to see out his contract, does this mean the rest of the market will remain in limbo till 2026?
No, they will have to move eventually…
Joe, what is your take on the NFL’s game between the Eagles and the Packers in Sao Paulo in September. Any chance for one in Paris near you? I really enjoy your F1 comments.
NFL wants to expand…
I went to the Patriots vs Seahawks in Munich. Compared to US games, it was an awful experience. Access to the stadium was terrible, security took hours to clear, it took me 45 minutes to get a bottle of water. PA guy did not know the game, scoreboards were often wrong. Then, huge lines to get out of there, took me an hour and waving a 50 Euro note in the air to get a cab. I’ll never go to another foreign venue again.
This sounds like my experience at the first Turkish Grand Prix, hours to get in, nowhere to park, warm drinks and impossible organization. There were clouds of tickets given by local police for cars that were just haphazardly parked anywhere outside the track blown against the fences after the race. It was a great race to see but otherwise a mess.
Hi Joe, can anything be read into Aston Martin not also confirming Lance Stroll alongside Fernando Alonso for next year?
No
Joe, congrats on a longer appearance in this season’s DTS. I am curious as to Sainz’ change in fortune from a race winning seat to a $$$ contract at a perennial back marker like Audi.
PS. See you in the Austin PC where I’ll ask you to autograph our photo with DT from ‘22
“I am curious as to Sainz’ change in fortune from a race winning seat to a $$$ contract at a perennial back marker like Audi.”
He should ask Danny Ric about such moves…
Joe, which of Mercedes, Audi and Alpine is most probable for Ocon in 2025?
It depends on others…
I have written about the driver market.
Your Green Notebook never disappoints. Thanks!
Although it can never be I would love to see a quick, young, hungry driver piloting the other Aston opposite Alonso. Is the feeling in the paddock that Alonso is extracting everything from of that car? With Stroll unable to challenge him it seems hard to evaluate.
It is hard to evaluate but few people think that a 42-year-old is as hungry as a 22-year-old… but with Lance as a yardstick it’s impossible to know.
Fernando seems to be the exception, but as fast as he still is he simply will not have that outright pace of a much younger driver. All he has shown is that the only way Daddy’s Dollars could be world champion would be in a car as dominant as the current Tin Can is and then with a fella like Corporal as his team mate
“…top drivers will always wait on the best drive… and no-one in the world thinks Audi is going to be that.” – apart from the “experts” on Reddit who all seem to think Audi are going to immediately crush the opposition.
My wife and I are enjoying Carlos’ supreme efforts this year, but you words “ a driver who gets better at contract time is not a choice that scientific engineers like to make. ” perhaps explain why RB, McLaren and now Ferrari have allowed him to leave.
I feel certain that Max will not be going anywhere.
The big news here is that Team Verstappen turned down Honda for 2026. I think Max has chosen Mercedes power for 2026. I don’t believe a start up engine company like RBPT Ford can or should be expected to win a world championship in its first few years of competition.
lost your spell checker.. otherwise lovely as usual. Are you doing a Montreal natter? My boy has got us tickets for the race, be nice to see you at the same time ☺️
Joe, what do you know about the rumours surrounding Anthony Hamilton and a bid to put a new team on the grid?
Nothing.
Two questions: First, is there drug testing of drivers in FIA sanctioned series?
Second, do you know if there will be an official commemoration of the 30th anniversary of Ayrton Senna’s death?
Yes. And I don’t know.
didn’t Rubens get pulled up by the drug test some years ago? Storm in a teacup if I remember right – either a false positive or an incorrectly labelled supplement issue, something like that.
Kankujima – I suppose it has potential to repurpose as a submarine base.
great journal Joe. You work hard to make sense out nonsense. Thank you.
I do not see anything as simple as emotions driving Max’s thinking here (even if it might Jos). He likely doesn’t care who wins the Red Bull civil war as long as he wins on track. He might speak to Mercedes just to get a sense of what the competition’s plans really are but I just don’t see him moving from the best all round team in Formula 1 to what is effectively a declining to midfield outfit that is now denied the key enabler of its past dominance (a massive budget advantage that led to everything else). The 26 engines are materially simpler than the current formula so it’s likely that RBPT will at least be in the ballpark of the others given the resources, personnel and early start. F1 is banking on active aero and extreme drag reduction to make up for the loss in average power which makes it hard for me to see anybody but Red Bull ace the new regs too given their technical dominance in this area.
Unless of course the media reports suggesting that perhaps RBPT/Ford aren’t where they’d like to be right now with the development of the 2026 PU are correct?
Some are even suggesting that Adrian Newey’s recent quotes about “…there was not much thought put into how the chassis would be impacted…” by the new PU could be an attempt (perhaps at the instruction of Dr M?) to try and influence ‘the powers that be’ into tweaking or changing the current configuration.
I am also curious as to why VER when asked about the current ‘power struggle’ within the team would say about Dr Marko – “It is very important that he stays. I feel like if such an important pillar falls away, and I have told the team this, that it is not good for my situation as well.” It does rather play onto the hands of those who feel he’s never really had to fight for anything at RB and that – just like Schumacher Snr at the (then) re-vamped Ferrari in the 90’s – everything has been built around him and his likes/dislikes, doesn’t it?
Hi Joe, thanks for the notebook as ever.
What’s likely to happen with customer engines in 2026. Honda presumably have the capacity, and one would think the desire to place Tsunoda in a team, plus a customer supply is good for data, invoices look good on the balance sheet, voting clout etc…
Similarly, any thoughts on an Audi customer supply? Plenty of brands to choose from to promote, and again, drivers to push, data, economics etc?
Or does it depend on what PU is in the back of the Enstone based chassis?
There are limited clients…
The kan in Kankujima is NOT 観.
It’s 関空島. 関空 is short for 関西国際空港, the airport, so sorry to disillusion you but it’s just a straightforward name for the landfill island they made for the airport.
Remember Japanese has millions of homonyms.
Good to know. Hard to learn!
I, for one, cannot wait until the official announcement comes that Carlos has signed with Audi-Sauber. Then our great guru of inside information, Joe Saward, will yet again be shone to have fed us accurate info from the days following Lewis’ surprise announcement.
The speculation on other sites, while fascinating, is just that. And, yes, I know things can always change but from day one, Joe, you said Audi would be his most-likely destination and now we see even Dr. Marko is hinting the same.
Feather. Cap.
Have a great day, sir.