It’s exhausting just trying to keep up with all the latest daft theories about who will drive the second Mercedes next year, and it seems to me that the choices are becoming fewer with each passing day. Valtteri Bottas was the obvious candidate, for me at least, but it seems that it would be rather complicated to extract him from Williams, not just in terms of funding, but also because of other contracts that the team has, which require him (or someone similar) to be there next year.
So why all the fuss about Mercedes and Fernando Alonso? Well, Toto Wolff was not lying when he said that one must consider a driver like Alonso. Of course you must. So, let’s consider him: great driver, under contract to McLaren. End of story. It doesn’t hurt Fernando to be seen as the target and Mercedes has nothing to lose from a bunch of screaming headlines. The underlying message here is “Fernando wants to drive our car” which is a positive message for Mercedes. When he isn’t allowed to, then it will be those mean spoil sports at McLaren and Honda who have stopped it happening…
But, figure this as well. If Fernando Alonso were to have a pixie with magic dust to sprinkle on the right people and make them release him, what would be the message next year were he to drive around in a Mercedes and win some races? The message would be: Fernando Alonso is brilliant. If a relative nobody gets into the second Mercedes and does well, the message is “Mercedes Benz gives you wings” (to borrow a phrase from another sponsor). Which story will sell more Mercedes road cars?
This means that the focus now seems to have switched to the question of whether Pascal Wehrlein is ready to do the job. We know that Pascal is quick, but he is obviously not yet perfect or else Force India would have gone for him, rather than Esteban Ocon. He’s a good qualifier and does great work at the start of races but he has tended to do less well in terms of race strategies. This is pretty normal for a youngster and it takes time to learn. Does he suit what Mercedes really wants for 2017? It needs a driver who can deliver solid results, so that it can maintain a strong challenge in the Constructors’ Chanpionship which, of course, is what pays the bills. This year the team collected an impressive 765 points, almost 300 more than runner-up Red Bull Racing. There were 19 wins in 21 races. It was a steamroller. One assumes that the team will still be pretty competitive next year but there is no doubt that Ferrari and Renault have been working hard on engine development in order to push up the number of horses they have available. This is logical. If they can get closer to the Mercs in terms of oomph, then the aerodynamics and vehicle dynamics can then kick in. Without the horsepower, nothing is going to happen…
So, what Mercedes probably needs is not two stars fighting each other, but rather one star being supported by a solid driver so that the team will be in the fight if the others do catch up. It is a risk whatever happens, but I am beginning to feel that the drive will end up with Wehrlein because the team will save a lot of money on salaries and if it does not give the youngster the chance, it will also undermine the young driver programme, which is designed to create cheap replacements for the stars of today. With an opportunity to use a youngster, and a German one at that, Mercedes may simply conclude that Wehrlein has to be the right choice.
Time will tell, but I think this is what will now happen. That might pop a few balloons in the weird world of fan speculation, but it will probably tick the right boxes in Stuttgart. The worst case scenario is that Wehrlein will be beaten by others. The best case is that he will sometimes beat Lewis Hamilton. The middle assessment is that he will finish second to Hamilton a lot. Who could really expect more of him than that? The money saved on Rosberg’s contract will be useful one way or another.
So let’s see, but don’t get too excited about Alonso and Uncle Tom Cobbly. This may end up being an internal promotion.
joeblogsf1 
Sounds right
The worst case scenario, in my view, is that Mercedes continues to have a significant edge under the new regulations, and Wehrlein, while respectable, is unable to contest Hamilton for the WDC.
regardless of what is possible or not under existing top drivers contracts, and regardless of what Mercedes might wish/wan/prefer, number 44 driver fanboys would prefer him having Wehrlein as a team mate than Alonso.
No matter how hard they try, some peoples “fanboyisim” cannot be hidden.
You are pathetic in stirring up animosity on a constant loop. For you actually have a life beyond your 24/7 infatuation with the British 3X World Champion.
I mean it’s a constant source of your time, I can imagine you have 1000s of photos of him in your basement.
Like the time when Steve Coogans character ‘Alan Partridge’ went to see a fan only you find he had an obsession with him 😂 & Alan Partridge ran out shouting “He’s a Mentalist!!” 😄
I’m a Lewis ‘fanboy’ and I desperately want to see Fernando in the car.
If you”re an F1 fan do you not want to see the best drivers not wasting their talents? Would we want to see Lewls in racing pergatory like Alonso? Of course not. We need all the protagonists we can get to give us the best racing spectacle, therefore Alonso in the Benz unless the 2017 McLaren is a contender.
Once I had digested the information of Nico’s retirement I quickly became very excited as to whom would occupy the second Merc seat.
Once I had digested the fact that all the interesting drivers were well protected by their employers contracts, I, rather glumly, accepted that I had become over excited!
Sorry to drift a bit, but I wasn’t aware that Nico was at end of contract. Did he have a ‘drop dead’ clause, or might his ‘walk out’ have repercussions?
I think the clauses constrain drivers who change teams, they do have the option to just say ‘I quit’, they don’t get paid future money, but there’s no penalty
There is no perfect outcome here, PW represents the least bad path.
Aren’t the 2017 cars supposed to be harder to drive? That would suggest an experienced driver would be a sensible bet, especially for a contending car like Mercedes. I doubt the team would want to see a championship contending car in the Rhubarb too often.
Andrew, I’m guessing by your ‘nom de plume’ that you’re a fan of the erstwhile Polish F1 star. Do you know what the latest on him is? I’m assuming we’ll never see him in an F1 car again which is a great shame. if he was recovered now he’d be a fantastic option for Mercedes. Seriously quick, expreienced and available, probably quite cheaply. It’s a real shame as he was future WC material I thought. Is he driving still in DTM or has he completely retired do you know?
Dec 5 2016 – “AS: After today’s meeting in Brackley Mercedes put Alonso on the top of their list”
I think if he wasn’t interested in the seat, he would have come out already and said something. Rosberg announced his retirement 5 days ago. Yes, Wehrlein is the safe and inexpensive choice, Bottas is the smart choice, but Alonso is the right choice, and Mercedes tend to give the fans what they want.
Mercedes isn’t exactly Williams circa 1996, when they didn’t overpay for anyone because they knew they had the best car. Instead, they signed their champion Hamilton to a $45m a year contract when Esteban Gutierrez could have won the championship if he was driving. Why did they do that? Because it keeps them in the headlines.
Come on Joe, try some…
*Passes Kool-Aid Pitcher*
If you want to believe the crap, believe the crap
Speaking of crap, who wants a second tier driver following Lewis Hamilton around as he strolls to WDC #4? The sport is hemorrhaging viewers as it is.
Last time Alonso had a hissy fit he cost McLaren $100M, imagine the tantrum if McLaren block a Mercedes drive then deliver yet another substandard car.
The owners of the sport will make it Alonso.
So it was Alonso who nicked 800-odd pages of technical data from Ferrari, was it? News to me.
Just ask yourself occasionally: is it possible that I don’t know what I don’t know?
Sky will be hemorrhaging viewers when they get soul custody of F1 broadcast rights. That’s when the big impact will occur.
Surely *Sky* will gain viewers, if anything? But *F1* viewership of course will be decimated. Or actually, much worse.
Why is Arne Saknussemm commenting on F1 drivers? I thought he was on a Journey
Good enough driver may win in the best car but a great driver is virtually guaranteed to win in the best car. That’s why the best teams always try to get the best drivers (and vice versa). Mantra as old as racing itself…
A respected Brazilian journalist who goes to every GP said that she heard “from people who know what they are talking about” that Pascal fell out with Force India because on a test he wouldn’t share some information about the Mercedes engine that they needed, out of loyalty to Mercedes. She thinks it’s likely that he will get the nod, as you do, Joe.
Interestingly, she also said that from observing Button in the 2nd half of the year, she said he behaved like someone who couldn’t wait for the season to end so he could go off and do other things. She thinks he is definitely not a contender.
Are there any Brazilian female journalists who go to every Grand Prix? I don’t think so. Not for some time now.
I think she goes to all of the races, at least most of them. Her name is Julianne Cerasoli. Her blog is a bit like yours, where she sometimes gives some details of her travels, and she even has a feature similar to your “notebook” posts (she calls them “paddock drops”) where she talks about things learned during her walks around the paddock and at post-race parties and things like that. But it is in Portuguese. She is good looking too 🙂
I know her, but I don’t think does all the races.
So Wehrein told “i’m not telling anything” and was kicked out and there comes Ocon with “no worries guys – which info do you need” and was hired. Couldn’t sound more logic, could it?
If I were Mercedes I’d do everything i could to get Carlos Sainz. He’s not moving up to RBR anytime soon, and will be cheaper for Mercedes to buy out compared to lifting Bottas from Williams.
Pascal is cheaper than Sainz.
Cheap driver is not Mercedes should be after for as this could cost a lot money in the end of the year if targets are not achieved, mostly in terms of WCC
Alexis, my comment was in response to Lewis’ that Sainz was cheaper than Bottas. In reality, the margin of difference between the three drivers in all likelihood is probably neglible as they are all credible options.
Carlos’s big problem is most likely going to be that he isn’t German enough. Nico was enough of a stretch…
I made the following comments elsewhere earlier this morning…
Three points:
1) Does anyone honestly believe that McLaren would let Alonso go?
2) And, if they did let him go, could Mercedes afford the buy-out AND his retainer? (Note that Rosberg didn’t make anywhere near what Alonso is paid and Mercedes has to have board approval.)
3) If they let Alonso go, then McLaren would be in the same situation as Mercedes is now without an engine card to play AND at least one rookie driver. So, what would they do? Bring back Button?
To my mind, Alonso is not going to move. It would put McLaren in a worse condition than Mercedes is now and what would be the point in that? I think all Wolff is doing is just smoke and mirrors as Alonso isn’t a real option.
I think Alonso has a sell by date, it close enough for McLaren to consider selling.
So are you now admitting Alonso to Merc might be an outside bet then with Wehrlein favourite? I think if Bottas is out of the running then Alonso is a shoe in for Merc. No way will they (Mercedes) pick a driver as relatively unproven as Pascal. I think Merc would much prefer Alonso to promote their brand than Pascal.
I am not admitting anything. I said from the start that Alonso to Mercedes was a lot of rubbish. If you wish to go on believing that then that is fine.
Well you might be off the pace on this one Joe,
I’m not
Joe if Merc want to buy out Alonso’s contract they will do so and do so through the legal system / Court of Arbitration for Sport. Surely any contract can be paid off . If Alonso’s contract was cancelled I am sure Bernie will persuade Zak Brown that maybe letting Alonso go to Merc is the right thing to do for Macca and F1. I am not entirely convinced the CRB is an all powerful body- there are ways around there rules I think-monetary ways
How much money do you think it would take? It’s just not realistic
I think £25-35 million should do it . Sometimes exceptions have to made.
I get the impression Merc will really push the boat out . Wehrlein is a not a viable option from a WCC point of view -appointing Pascal would be a disaster for their WCC targets . Fernando is known quantity and can deliver therefore this is an exceptional case where everything will done to get Alonso at Brackley. We are in a pretty exceptional set of circumstances this year Joe. The first time in 23 years the reigning WDC has retired. The fact Rosberg announced his retirement post season rather than in season also makes it a unique situation So what teams would normally do in terms of accepting contractual situations/CRB rulings I think will not necessarily apply here.
Merc know Fernando Alonso is the best driver for the job and are trying to find a way to get him and they will find one. In my opinion. if Merc truly had their heart set on appointing Bottas or Wehrein they would be close to an announcement within days of Nico’s retirement not a a week couple of weeks in my view. If they appoint Pascal/ Valtteri it will be travesty and it will not generate good general PR for Mercedes as a company. I agree teams would not normally go about in this way to get a driver but this a situation that is not normal to F1 in over 20 years – where the WDC has not only retired but done so after the season has finished . Mercedes know the only decent way to replace Nico is to hire a driver of outstanding calibre and this should and I believe will be done irrespective of cost as the other 2 options are not at the standards I think Mercedes requires and needs in terms of technical understanding and on track performance -Alonso will deliver on both aspects.
Wehrlein makes a lot of sense, not only because he won’t be expensive. Hamilton will be there to go for the title, and nobody would expect Wehrlein to beat him, or anything…so no pressure, really. As long as he does not mess up in a major way, Wehrlein should be solid enough to contribute for the constructor’s championship and learn from Hamilton along the way…to become the Mercedes AMG driver for the future.
a) massively expensive
b) creates team problems, has a history of expensive blow ups with hamilton
c) Merc don’t like intra team blow ups
d) he isn’t needed for Merc to win
e) he isn’t German
a) massively expensive
b) creates team problems, has a history of expensive blow ups with hamilton
c) Merc don’t like intra team blow ups
d) he isn’t needed for Merc to win
e) he isn’t German
lets wait and see, either you’re right – or I’m right and you you’re bzzt crzz ping
Stephen, the question is how much closer Ferrari or Red Bull will be next year. This year Merc’s lead was so great that I don’t think it’s unrealistic to say that putting ANY other driver in one of the two Silver Arrows would have still netted them the WCC. If it’s going to be closer than before, now Mercedes have to be choosy. If it’s going to be a hair’s breadth, only THEN will they need an Alonso.
Alonso might blow the team up
Better to risk that in my opinion than not maximise your potential in the WCC.
So McLaren are going to give up Alonso and their potential to maximise points so Mercedes can? How much prize money would McLaren have lost with 2 drivers scoring points at Button’s rate, what’s the difference in pay between finishing the CC in 6th as opposed to 7th?
Yes I believe if the money is right they will.
Be a great way of keeping Lewis under pressure too.
Apparently Taki Inoue has applied for the Mercedes seat. He’d be cheaper.
Mercedes would have to be OUT OF THEIR MINDS to pair Alonso with Lewis. If there was stress keeping LH & NR on even keels and rowing in the same direction, I can’t imagine the conflicts between these two overly competitive and aggressive drivers NOT boiling over into open warfare, on track and off.
Lewis may waltz to another WDC and as long as Pascal can average top 6 finishes, MB will bag another mfg title as well.
With the rules going aero and doing away with the engine token system, Mercedes has to recognize the the threat from other teams especially Red Bull (Newey factor) could be significant next year. One way Mercedes can assure the best fight to the risk of other teams outsmarting them in 2017 is by taking Alonso out of Mclaren. The other factor you’ve missed – Bernie & Liberty could be willing to push Mercedes to take in Alonso for the sake of the sport. A Mercedes take of 2007 Championship Part 2 is just what F1 needs to propel potential marketing strategies to bring in cash to F1 and also to open up to US markets. Mercedes could be selling a lot more cars with kind of drama Hamilton and Alonso can bring to the table, They are now a lot more mature than they were in 2007 and there is a great deal of respect between them. I hope Mercedes can see the sense and go for what will be more than just save $15 MM.
i don’t think bernie has anything to do with it. Merc are a very powerful world player and will do what they want.
Hi joe I think your measured thinking is most probably right! Do you know if it is possible for a driver to buy himself out of his contract and if yes do you think fernnado alonso would be willing to do that if was to be offerered the Mercedes seat?
Reading between the lines it sounds like you’ve heard something Joe. Have you?
No comment
As evasive as merc.
Joe Saward> No comment
Thank you, that tells us all we need to know. 😉
What are your feelings about Carlos Sainz as a possibility given that there is a log jam at the top at Red Bull and his ambitions.
And the marketing strategy of Lewis disappearing and all the cameras on Wehrlein getting monstered by RB and Ferrari ? Yip, it’s worrying for Merc !
Does Lewis have any say who his team mate will be next year?
Does it look like Perez, Sainz or Grosjean are out of the running, because if the deals could be done they look like good choices. Wehrlein then going to a mid-grid team for a couple of years.
If all names are on the table, a driver fully used to winning under German fastest Factory racer in WEC, races for Petronas in Super GT, raced F1 a couple of years ago, Belgium but races under the German flag. Andre Lotterer would be a decent steady and fast hands….
But would he be as fast as Wehrlein, I think he would.
Lotterer is under contract to Porsche.
Promoting Wehrlein for 2017 would give Mercedes time to look at Vettel or Alonso for 2018…
Bingo.
Best case – Wehrlein surprises and is close to a match for Lewis. In which case the choice is vindicated and he stays on for a longer time.
Worst case – he holds the spot for a year until a true top driver (VET or ALO) is out of contract and available.
Yes there seem to be some “better” drivers possibly available. But Mercedes’ end game isn’t to get a “good enough” driver in the spot for the long run.
So does this mean Bottas is out of the question or that it is just less likely to happen? I do not care much for Wehrlein but if he gets it it will be for the right reasons and would justify the money it took to get him the manor drive.
“The worst case scenario is that Wehrlein will be beaten by others. The best case is that he will sometimes beat Lewis Hamilton. The middle assessment is that he will finish second to Hamilton a lot.”
One scenario that wasn’t assessed was if Wehrlein outperforms Hamilton. There is precedent of this happening (against the odds), just look at Ricciardo’s season alongside Vettel where he firmly put the german in the shade. Not saying its a certainty or even probable, just that without a crystal ball, one should not discount the scenario entirely.
Not going to give individual marks, but if we call Pascal a good qualifier, then we should think of Rio Haryanto as a great qualifier, given he doesn’t have as much speed and still wasn’t outqualified by faster mate.
I think Joe is right….They have the driver to win (the drivers championship) and score a big chunk of the points for the constructors championship, now only need someone to get some solid points through the season. PW ticks all the boxes for a short term gap until the drivers market really opens up next year when some top drivers become available. Correct me if i’m wrong but Hamilton’s contract finishes next year as well which could create an even bigger headache for Merc if there car is not as competitive next year.
I would suggest that Alonso’s contract may have a get out clause? If so, all Mercedes need to do is pay the McLaren piper. However, the first armored car filled to the brink for McLaren, plus the second armored car required to pay Alonso, would come to over three times what they were paying Rosberg. We’ve recently seen how much large automotive companies have in their piggy banks through Volkswagon’s numerous lawsuits, so MB no doubt easily have the cash to do so. It’s a matter of not if they have the cash, but if it’s within their budget they have allocated for F1. The bright side of Alonso is that they could very well have a World Championship with him.On the other hand, Wehlein might just be the best all around deal to be had.No World Championship, but supporting Lewis for pennies on the dollar compaired with Alonso.
If Bottas appears to be off the table,why not use JB (Yes, I know he has said he has had enough and wants to retire – But that was in a Mclaren Honda touring around towards the back)
He has proved on his day he is a match for Lewis, Merc are highly likely to be fighting at the front for wins, etc. He can take the fight to the bulls and Ferrari’s, guaranteed plenty of constructors points most weekends.
For the right deal, would he want to sign for one year? They could then park Wehrlein at Sauber and compare his development to Ocon
Then in 2018 Vettel or Alonso are available?? Or use Wehrlein or Ocon depending how they develop. Would be an ideal stop gap from the constructors championship, keep Lewis honest and be an ideal swan song to his career.
I guess from my logic above it depends on who they want in the car in 2018 if they think Wehrlein is too big a risk in 2017.
What about the possibility that Merc also think Ocon is more deserving of a promotion than Wehrlein? Could they do a deal with Force India to take Ocon and give them Wehrlein instead, in return for (even) cheaper engines?
Force India may not be against running Wehrlein at all; perhaps he was a close second choice and they just preferred Ocon.
I think it would be good to see Ocon and Verstappen renew their F3 rivalry in race-winning F1 cars.
If I were Mercedes, my worries about Wehrlein would be, roughly:
1. If Wehrlein does have a bad attitude, it could disturb the atmosphere within the garage, particularly if he manages to get on Lewis’s wick.
2. If Lewis crushes him, the development of their young star would likely be significantly set back.
3. If he starts beating Lewis, all sorts of unpleasant things might happen, from Lewis demanding team orders (in which case see 2), to Lewis deciding he’s feeling hard-done-by and leaving.
Me, I’d drop Robert Wickens into the simulator for a couple of days before I decided anything.
So to follow on from my comment yesterday, do we (or more importantly, Merc) know whether Pascal can set up a car as well as Nico could?
We know he’s been boasting that he’s had more time on the 2017 tyres than anybody else, but that doesn’t mean he knows how to set a car up to its best potential overall. Not saying I know whether he does or not, btw; I have no idea myself, hence me asking the question.
Just thinking that Mercedes may end up with two drivers, neither of whom are expert at setting up the car as Nico was. Although with today’s telemetry, is that as important as it used to be?
Sorry, just thinking out loud here.
Doesn’t matter if Pascal can set up a car or not. The team shares data, so they would just apply Lewis’s to his car.
Torchwood> Doesn’t matter if Pascal can set up a car or not… they would just apply Lewis’s to his car.
My comment from yesterday (linked above) was that car setup is an area where Rosberg was strongly rumoured to be better than Hamilton (I think I read that Hamilton used Rosberg’s setups to go faster more than once), so that’s kinda missing the point. Ideally Mercedes would want someone who’s an excellent development and setup driver, to help Hamilton as much as himself.
As I said above, “Mercedes may end up with two drivers, neither of whom are expert at setting up the car as Nico was…”.
To further emphasise what I was saying here, today Toto Wolff has been quoted as saying:
“It is important that the second driver can help the team in the development of the car. That was Rosberg’s great strength.”
All rough numbers here – assuming the net between Rosberg and Alonso is $35-50M somewhere and the margin on the average Mercedes in the price range that is relevant in a Formula 1 market context is $10.000, then all they need to do is to sell another 3.500-5.000 cars. Would Alonso + Hamilton (you have to count him in as a synergy too) do that for Mercedes?
Hi Joe
Paddy Lowe was asked / pressed at the BRDC awards lunch..” if could have / choose anyone to partner Lewis who would it be… Paddy eventually replied Alonso!
I must admit I would relish seeing that one play out.. but as you say, it will not happen. Pascal is the safest bet and in 12 months time there will be other options not available now
Keep up the great work and cutting through the other “journalists ” crap!
Best wishes for a peaceful Christmas and a Happy and Healthy ( and hopefully a new publication) New Year!
Ross
Ps If you or David are in London and ever want to go to the BRDC awards as my guests you have open invitation
Sent from my iPhone
Sure I read somewhere Honda pay Alonso’s wages?
No way would they release him after they have spent past 2 years trying to improve their PU?
Hopefully next years Honda PU will be really competitive, but would be mad to release Alonso.
Who knows though – how about a Vettel or Alonso – Hamilton swap??
Personally would prefer only 1 Merc fighting it out at the front, more chance for different winners from different teams
I think you make a good case. All Mercedes really wants or needs is a driver lineup that can consistently deliver 1-2 finishes like they did this year. Who is first or second probably doesn’t matter that much to them as long as they can lock up both championships.
There’s a bigger picture here than just Merc though, and that’s FOM, Bernie and the fans.
With viewing figures in decline and fan interest waning the Sport needs reinvigorating, and whilst the new regs may help it’s not going to help if Pascal is following Lewis home every race and we’ve got just one man in contention for the WDC.
Myself, and I’m sure many others couldn’t really care less about who wins the WCC. When Merc won it this year I didn’t bat an eye lid – “great, nice result [yawn]” … Who’s gonna win the WDC then? That’s what we tune in for, to watch the best drivers in the world in the best machinery in the world battling it out in super tight races.
Imagine if Pascal does sign up – and he’s getting beaten hand over fist by Hamilton every weekend, which is what would happen – what if he wraps the WDC up by Singapore?… what a borefest the rest of the season would be – who cares about watching who comes 2nd in the WDC or 2nd/3rd in the WCC. I certainly don’t.
We want to see races going to the wire like in 2016 – we want fireworks, drama, emotions, steering wheels thrown out of cockpits…we want to see two heavyweight gladiators slugging it out man to man, machine to machine, racing wheel to wheel. The Sport needs headlines of not “Who will follow Hamilton home to the podium?” every weekend.
Pascal just hasn’t had enough experience to deal with the stage that is Mercedes, the biggest Lion in the Sport right now.
Also consider the detrimental impact it would have on his career – if he fails to deliver, and fails badly, is he going to stay on in 2018 at Merc? No, so who will then give him a drive with his confidence, ego and ambitions smashed to pieces? Back to Manor, if he’s lucky – unless they’ve already signed two decent drivers in the meantime and don’t want to let them go….
The smart money would be to go for Alonso, and money… Merc doth have.
As Martin Brundle said, we watch F1 to see the best drivers in the world fight in the best cars in the world.
I respect your point of view because of your huge experience in the paddock and you have probably seen every scenarios of that kind during your 500 races or so.
I keep my opinion that Alonso is so hungry to win another WC that he will do all is possible to get the seat, including a huge salary cut… at least for the first year on this hypothetical contract.
What upsets me actually is the fact that Toto talks a lot about Alonso, too much to be serious. Normally, nobody knows what’s going to happen very few days before the news comes out but now, even Toto is talking about Alonso. That’s not the normal scenario and it could only be fume to hide something else we never see coming.
I actually think Wehrlein would be a better choice than Bottas even if Bottas were available. Bottas was barely any faster than Massa. In a Merc he would be crushed by Hamilton and in his time at Williams hasn’t really shown he’s anything more than a solid mid pack performer. I can’t think of any stand out moments that would make you say “Wow”. Wehlein on the other hand has at least outperformed Ocon this season, although with the caveat that Ocon only joined midseason so its not really a fair fight there, he has won DTM, reached Q2 a few times in a very slow Manor and also managed to score a point. I’d say the potential of Wehlein is far greater than the potential of Bottas.
Paul Di Resta won DTM too. Hardly a ringing endorsement is it?
As Joe wrote barely a few weeks back, Pascal was searching the Brazilian fields looking for his blown off socks.
Considering the weather in Brazil and how the world got carried away with Verstappens display – good not great – Ocon was the one who displayed amazing talent.
I’m fairly certain I read somewhere that Ocon’s lines were picked up by Red Bull and relayed through to Max. Driver coaching? Not for the Frenchman.
If you want similarities, I’d call the 2001 season at Sauber. A fast German driver (Heidfeld) backed by Mercedes shared a team with a rookie (Raikkonen) who at seasons end was signed by Mclaren despite Mclaren-Mercedes having backed fast nick for years.
The rest is history.
Following previous post… Ocon is still contracted to Merc, is he not – so there might even be a clause in his Force India contract which allows Merc to take him back if they wish.
So Jeremy Clarkson is definitely out then😉.
Has to be a coin flip between Bottas and Wehrlein then an outside flip for Valentino Rossi ( comedy plant and not a serious option as Rossi said himself).
Tricky choice one will feel abandoned and the other feel spring has sprung early.
Though Claire Williams will be given Wehrlein in exchange ?
It’s good to guess though anything can happen before Christmas .
Rossi?
10 years ago his testing performances in a F2004 when Schumacher was testing the new 2006 car impressed the team.
His car was obviously running better aero due to reg. changes and the exam limited the 3.0l engine to emulate the new 2.4 V8 but by all accounts he was merely hundredths slower.
What a pity Ferrari couldn’t convince him to join for 2007…
Joe, I have a question on your comments on Bottas you mention contracts Williams have, but is that on the basis of his nationality, experience or reputation?
Thanks for the cogent post Joe, given your years of first-hand experience & your ‘ear-to-the-ground’ contacts I find it hard to disagree with you when I am sat at home in deepest Devon in the UK having no journalistic experience or ‘contacts’. However!
It seems to me that Mercedes need to see-out this next season & then have the pick of the drivers who will, supposedly, be available due to contracts ending after the 2017 season; such as Sebastian Vettel, Fernando Alonso or Carlos Sainz. This would also allow Pascal Wehrlein to have another season to mature in another team whist allowing Mercedes to see if he can grow as a driver to a level to justify a Mercedes seat in 2018.
What about tempting Jenson Button back into a winning car for what would be the final year of his F1 career? He may well have looked lack-lustre over the past 6-months in a regularly-failing, often back-marker car but I bet he would be totally rejuvenated in the fabulous Mercedes. It would also allow Jenson to potentially go-out on a ‘high’. As we all know, Jenson has previously been a successful & generally non-contentious team-mate to Lewis over a number of seasons (when he virtually matched Lewis’ points total with McLaren). He would also bring known engineering experience & reliable feed-back to the team to allow the new-regulations 2017 car to be developed to the full with the benefit of 2 knowledgeable & mature drivers rather than the 1 being experienced & the other being a relatively inexperienced youngster. Being a world champion in his own right, it would also give Mercedes 2 world champions within the team, something they assumed they would have if Nico had not retired. Jenson has had many years experience driving with a Mercedes engine behind him & won the championship in 2009 using Mercedes power. He is the totally known & proven option.
I know Jenson has a non-driving contract with McLaren for 2017, but it would inevitably be a lot less expensive to by him out of this obligation than it would be for Fernando Alonso.
Do I make any sense at all, or am I just a total fantasist being a huge fan of Mr. Button, both as a driver & as a quality individual?
Whatever, it was fun to speculate for a few minutes whilst dinner is being prepared. Oh dear, not fillet steak yet again ……………
Garry.
I’m a big Jenson fan, but everything about what he’s said and his body language over the last few months has said that he is almost relieved now to be retiring. The intensity of two decades in F1 has drained him, I think. Why would he want another season? Doesn’t need the money, and he’s won his world title and climbed that mountain like Nico has. I think he knows he hasn’t got the hunger it would take to attempt to beat Lewis consistently, and why would he want to finish second to him every fortnight?
I would love to know how much was paid to the publicist who’s convinced the public that Button is a great car developer…
Throughout his career he’s never demonstrated such fabled technical nous as commonly stated. If we assume the tech dept at BAR in 04 designed the second best car of the year behind Ferrari, in the subsequent years the team fell back from the front runners.
When Brawn rose from the ashes of Honda JB won 6 out of 7 races at the start of the campaign; yet after the mid-season, as the car developed according to Barrichello’s direction, Button struggled.
A similar phenomenon was seen in 2012. Mclaren followed JB’s input to the point he was lost completely, whilst Lewis drove through the problems.
From 2013 to date, what exact progress has Mclaren made?
The days of drivers engineering cars are long gone. Why anyone feels that Button or Rosberg could set up cars is beyond me. They give feedback to the engineers who then make changes to the car.
All I’ve seen with Button is, if he can’t understand the cars dynamics he falls away and complains of lack grip/ balance etc. No- one has ever convinced me how this input has helped any of his engineers.
Totally agree with you that Alonso to Mercedes is rubbish,. But if some pixie dust enabled it to happen and he won Mercedes could spin it “see what happens when we give him a good car.”
“… it would be rather complicated to extract him from Williams, not just in terms of funding, but also because of other contracts that the team has, which require him (or someone similar) to be there next year.”
As in, Mr. Stroll (he with the money) thoughtfully made sure that Williams had a bogey development driver (Mr. Bottas, in this example) instead of pairing his son with some greenhorn like, say, Pascal Wehrlein for a year of “re-building.” (Otherwise known as fighting to get into Q2.)
Clever chap that Mr. Stroll! Well played !
There may be some truth in this
And Nasr wouldn’t meet the definition of the stroll babysitter?
Thanks for reading between the lines in that one for me. I was scratching my head trying to piece together.
If I were boss of red bull I’d want a weaker driver at merc… 2017 constructors championship goes to…
Nico really has caught wolf napping.
You don’t make that much money without being able to see the big picture and cover off all the possibilities.
Finally, a reader comment worth reading (and I’ve read thousands).
Not as many as I have…
Well, you own “the place.”
Bring back Heikki Kovaleinen! He was quick in F1 and has been keeping his hand in doing Japanese super GT racing. I think he won that this year.
He will work well with Lewis as they were great together at McLaren in 2008.
Stranger things could happen.
Somewhat surprised that Mercedes do not appear to have much of a contingency plan in place to mitigate one of their drivers leaving. I think this is needed as I think it likely that Hamilton could leave at anytime to pursue his music and fashion interests in the USA.
I see your logic about Wehrlein Joe but isn’t he a) too inexperienced, b) probabaly not talented enough to swim immediately in what is going to be a very deep deep end of the pool next season?
Lets accept your Alonso hypothesis (not available) and the apparently increasing difficulty of getting Bottas. In this case wouldn’t Sainz would be top of the list? Cigarette paper between him and Verstappen when they were together, plus he has more experience….
Maybe the contract issues are too tough in his case as well.
Aye, realistic it has been the WEH or the BOT for me. That being said, I’m still going to have fun with some unrealistic speculations with the BUT, ALO and such. I bet half of the drivel is probably just people having some fun with it.
Joe,
You did (IIRC) mention Grosjean as a slight possibility p, & I seem to remember the Haas team making noises about not standing in the way if a driver had an offer to move up the grid.
Has any possibility of that gone away? Or is it just that you think Pascal is more likely? I was struck that almost no-one else even mentioned Romain in laundry list ‘here are ten candidates’ type articles. Thanks.
I’m sure you’re right that Mercedes won’t pay over the odds to extract Alonso or anyone else. There’s no point when he & many others are coming out of contract next year. Do you think they’ll put PW on a contract with options in their own favour but no guarantee beyond 2017? And then see how ALO, VET etc react to the new regs?
Sounds logical, a shame for Bottas (he won’t be well pleased about it, either) and Sainz, and pretty much predicated on the notion that Mercedes will not be dominant in 2017. If they are, they are in for a beating for being boring, methinks.
Poor old Alonso is in the wrong place, again, tied to McLaren and only available after next year. I can just see him going to Mercedes right when their dominance ends. On the other hand, Honda has been making solid progress with their engine, so maybe next year is promising enough for him to remain, with 2018 offering actual chances at a championship. All that assuming he can get along with Vandoorne…
If Wehrlein gets the drive, it will be quite a test for him. As I understand from your articles, Wehrleins problems could be his attitude and race strategy. Do you know (or suspect) that those are the reasons Force India preferred Ocon, or was there something more? There might be the same kind of data that seems to keep Hulkenberg out of the top teams – a lack of consistency in his case, maybe something else for Wehrlein.
Tom…I agree with your comment regarding Alonso…McLaren/Honda will eventually catch up…sooner rather than later. Red Bull probably will have caught up by next season also. 2018 will be a good year for McLaren. Leaving would be a mistake.
Aside from Joe stating that Alonso isn’t going to make the move…it is troubling that we haven’t heard a peep from Alonso…Makes me think he is trying his hardest to switch. I hope he doesn’t and stays put. Winning in 2018 with McLaren would be a great victory.
It isn’t going to happen.
I wonder what this will do to Fernando’s mental attitude? I’m sure that he’d take the drive like a shot if it was possible so seeing a winning car without a driver that he can’t have is bound to have a negative impact. Jenson obviously lost interest in trailing around, might the same happen to Fernando at some point?
Of course, despite how attractive the idea sounds, McLaren would be more tha foolish to let it happen – who would they replace him with? And what would it do to their car development?
In a way the sad thing for the fans is that this came too late in the season to really shake things up in the driver market but it will be interesting to see if whoever they put in has the mental strength to withstand Lewis and make a decent account of themselves.
Maybe Pascal for 1 year contract for 2017, with an option on the team’s side for a 2nd year in 2018. This leaves Mercedes options for 2018 when Alonso and other top drivers might be out of contract, especially if Pascal underwhelms.
It doesn’t fill me with excitement for 2017 as I think it gives Lewis an easy ride, where his main rivals at RB and Ferrari are possibly splitting the spoils between teammates.
It’s also a bit harsh for Pascal, who (if all was fair) would get a secure two year Mercedes deal to allow him time to develop alongside Lewis, maybe with some performance clauses to ensure he’s the real deal.
When all is said and done, I believe that Button will end up with the MB drive.
That won’t happen with all due respect … it will be Pascal W in the Mercedes ..
Unless headlines are taking Toto out of context, he seems perfectly happy to equate multiple blown PUs for Hamilton with Rosberg being the “best driver in the world”, so it doesn’t sound like that big a risk of Pascal being decisively beaten by Hamilton.
And if the youngster is able to keep pace with Lewis enough with merit, come the end of the season, he could be a WDC contender.
My own candidate pool for the seat, varying levels of practicality, would be Alonso, Kvyat, and wherever he is now, Kobayashi…
Ha! Sounds pretty close to what I commented on your last post. However, before we all go around patting ourselves on the back let’s wait and see who they hire.
Within minutes of Rosberg’s announcement, I was reading that Alonso, Vettel or Verstappen had to get the drive at Mercedes. I thought it was obvious none of them were going to move teams, as it would leave their teams playing musical chairs trying to find replacements. What has amazed me are the delusional ideas of some who believe Alonso has a divine right to move and finally prove he’s better than Lewis Hamilton. Even some in the F1 media have been saying much the same. It’s certainly made me think twice about how much they really know about how F1 works.
Thank gawd I can come here and read some sensible reporting on the situation. I do know one thing for sure. Nico Rosberg’s name must be mud at Mercedes. If they’d known his intentions a month or so ago, Mercedes wouldn’t be lumbered with this huge problem. He’s probably not that popular with the drivers who’ve only recently signed up with their teams. Gentleman Rosberg, no I don’t think so. Brave Rosberg, not in a million years.
Thanks for letting us know that Hamilton is better than Alonso. Is all that bad stuff about Rosberg also somehow related with being a Hamilton fan? Rosberg has done what he though he has to do – he hasn’t hurt anybody, he hasn’t blamed anybody and etc – what makes him not gentleman anymore?
@Alexis – do you have an issue with me being a Lewis Hamilton fan? Do you objection to me having a different opinion to yours? I believe Lewis to be a far better driver than Alonso and the facts back me up. I am not a fan of Rosberg. He’s taken out Hamilton twice in 2 years and was close to doing it a third time. Rosberg admitted hitting Hamilton at Spa to “prove a point”. There is nothing gentlemanly about Rosberg, in *my* opinion there is little nice about him. Not that it matters, he’s gone and will only be remembered as the “run away home” champion.
Arguably Ferrari might be able to draft in Grosjean if they would let Vettel be bought out (but there really is no reason why they would do that).
And I think that Sainz and Ricciardo in a Red Bull would not be that far behind a Max-Daniel pairing there (but again, what motivation would Mateschitz have to help Mercedes and hurt himself).
McLaren would probably have a bit of a tougher job with it, because they don’t currently have another driver in their program or in a “friendly” team they could pull in. Again, I am pretty sure that Ron mentioned that they discussed things with Alonso (I think he even mentioned choosing between more PR+performance clauses OR fixed contract with more money), and that it was a deal that only both sides could get out after mutual consent.
Joe, I accept your logic and cannot offer an alternative but in my experience if something does not appear to be right don’t do it. Neither Manor, FI nor Mercedes really want Pascal Wehrlein. Manor may have a financial reason, the other two not. They both want someone else to try him or prove himself when by now he should be a known quantity. As you sometimes say there is more to this story. If Mercedes take him only because he is a development driver, I would venture to suggest that this is the very reason why he should not get the drive.
Why does everybody think that Wehrlein is ready? 5:5 in qualifying against somebody from Malaysia with no future in F1 – I wouldn’t call this a good qualifier.
If (big if of course) Mercedes are not dominating next year they could end up losing WCC in a similar way like McLaren has done in 2008 with Heikki who looked ready (to be lapped by Hamilton) as well. WCC pays the bills so its the big risk. Closest rivals would have more or less equally matched pairs.
On the other hand if Mercedes continue to dominate and Wehrlein is not living up his expectations we could see Hamilton sealing title in a similar way Schumacher used to do in Ferrari
Indonesia…
My bad – sorry. Anyway, I’ve always expected that Mercedes protege should do much better against paid driver Haryanto.
To me what makes most sense from the start is to sign Alonso for the 2018 season in case Hamilton jumps ship they need a strong driver for 2018. Put in a driver like Wehrlein for a single year contract for just 2017, which he would love the chance to drive the fastest car. He would be a placeholder for Merc until Alonso’s McLaren contract is up and he gets to show everyone if he has the speed to carry on in F1. I see it as a win-win-win for everyone with this scenario. Except of course if Wehrlein turns out to be a nothing and Merc doesn’t win the constructor’s championship, or if the pressure of being up against Hamilton smashes Wehrlein’s confidence and we have a case of another Jaime Alguersuari
Time to bust out the Canary trap for some post season fun….
Exclusive; “little known Cobbley in the surprise lead for the second Mercedes seat”
Hailing from Devon, Cobbley somewhat of an unknown in F1 circles has been on Mercedes radar for sometime…
Wehrlein. Boring, boring, boring.
Will get dismantled by Lewis.
Worst decision for F1, even if it’s best for Mercedes.
Let’s hope it’s Red Bull that are quickest and Lewis will have to actually try in order to claim WDC #4.
Come on Mercedes, choose Alonso for the good of the world!!
Mercedes is not a missionary organisation. It sells cars…
I hear you, Joe. Maybe I’m a bit heart over head.
However, there is a counter-argument to your thinking:
1. Mercedes would be reaching many more fans to sell cars to by there being a genuine fight up front by 2 megastars – it would be like Mayweather v Pacquiao… how many casual fans did that attract? Honestly, the marketing opportunity is huge. Think about it, did you watch that fight? How many boxing matches have you watched before/since?
2. Does anyone really think, after 3 years of total domination by Mercedes, that if Alonso won, it wouldn’t be because the car was awesome too? Come on Joe, people aren’t that stupid, are they? I guess some might be but if that’s the case then those guys would’ve been searching for a drinks can to be their family car from 2010-2013. Not worth worrying about.
I know that Merc are here to sell cars. They will sell more with Hamilton & Alonso than Hamilton and a guy no-one’s heard of, who will be whitewashed.
F1’s stock will rise with Ham v Alo. Everyone knows that.
Here’s hoping!
@Matthew – the two largest markets for Mercedes are the US and China. I don’t think either countries have a huge interest in F1. Mercedes sales are closely followed by BMW in the US. BMW have only won 1 F1 race and left back in 2009. Their current sales success isn’t related in any way to even taking part in F1.
It would be interesting to know how Mercedes sell cars off the back of F1. I wonder if Rosberg will be expected to do PR work for them during 2017.
And second place in the Constructor’s will not make them happy when it comes to shifting tin off the lots. Will Hamilton/Wehrlein produce another title? If this year’s title was actually worth US$3B in marketing value, one would think they would move heaven and earth and many Euros to acquire the “winningest” pairup.
While the majority of the media are writing about the Alonso/Mercedes story, Mercedes can get on with the job of working out their actual replacement. Good distraction strategy, working with today’s (especially a certain collection of sites) click-bait driven stories.
I think getting someone in on a one year contract would be best since a lot of good drivers are free from 2018 onwards, Alonso, Vettel, (I believe) Ricciardo, plus also Bottas. As for who gets the one year contract, Wehrlein (which could be extended if he does well), Massa and Button would be my choices, maybe the recent GP2 champion if he is not tied to any contracts. Of course, many drivers would not accept a one year contract. Could a conditional contract be offered to Wehrlein, i.e. only one year unless he scores a certain percentage of the points of Hamilton (presumably with reliability factored in)?
I know its nutty but, I’m still thinking Alonso for the seat. What if Lewis wants it, what if Lewis is willing to contribute some of his pay to get it? Alonso has said he has made his money, so, if he needs to take a cut in pay for a shot at a 3rd WDC, it seems he might, even a big one, Lewis has also made his money, and wants a greater legacy.
Earlier this year it was reported that Mr. E said that Mercedes got together with Ferrari to improve the Ferrari engine but didn’t do enough. Wolff never denied that something might have happened. I think this might be an ingredient that would make a different to McLaren Honda. What if part of the deal is Mercedes helps Honda like Bernie said Mercedes helped Ferrari?
Mercedes seems to have become sensitized to the merits and values of F1 being a show of competition on the track. The first year of their dominance they were disinterested in all the talk of blowing away the competition being bad. A year later the FIA and it seems the FOM were seriously talking about bringing back an V8 or V10 and letting teams decide which to use. Mercedes seemed shocked as things became more and more serious seeing teams drop the payments for a Mercedes HPPU and going with a convention engine at less than half the cost. So a deal was done, in 2018 teams that buy engines will pay less. This event might have been the catalyst for Mercedes seeing the big picture, a race is only a race when there is a race, they need to help others and manage that funky middle ground of blowing the competition away while helping to provide a more traditional race, upping the entertainment.
My notion is that this might come to play if Mercedes is serious about Alonso. Money and engine consultation for Alonso, no one has to know…
Everybody wins!
A word of praise (sympathy?) for Joe. Waaaay back on November 29, he ended his Green notebook piece with: “And so, another season ends and it is time to bolt the door and take some rest…”
Then came Nico. For fans facing the fallow time until testing starts in the new year this has been wonderful, crazy intrigue.
But Joe, poor bugger, has elected to put on the helmet and HANS device one more time just when he had every reasonable expectation of recovering at home from the insane schedule of an F1 journalist.
Thanks for keeping us informed and thanks too, for your variously restrained,comic and occasionally abrupt responses to some of the more whacky hypotheses that are trotted out. Joyeux Noel, sir.
Oh by the way, Sir Stirling is a proven winner, he has a terrific relationship with Mercedes, he’s out of contract and he gets on well with Lewis. Just sayin’
Seconded!
Thirded. Thank you, Joe. Have a great Christmas.
Wehrlein has real pace which he has shown in qualifying several times, like Riccardo did in 2013. Its not something anything is saying but there could be a chance of the Riccardo Vettel in 2014 situation happens. A new set of regulations which surprises everyone by suiting the “inexperienced, meant to be no. 2 driver” better than the “Superstar” driver who dominated the previous set of regulations. An “inexperienced, meant to be no. 2 driver” who has spent previous seasons perfecting extracting the most from a lower downforce package, and when they get into a great high downforce car, have a driving style that can extract more than the “Superstar”. It happened to Alonso in 2007, who had dominated the previous regulations, but the new Bridgestones Lewis was able to extract more. It happened to Vettel in 2014, who had dominated the previous regulations, but the new regulations with low downforce and high torque suited Daniel more. And it might, just might happen to Lewis in 2017, who had dominated the previous regulations, but the new regulations with massive downforce and mechanical grip, and driving a Grand Prix becomes physically like running a 100m race over a marathon distance – might better suit a younger driver like Pascal? Who knows, I’m just throwing out there the possibility that Pascal might give Lewis a much harder time than anyone is giving him credit for. He might even beat him.
What about Hulkenberg?
He drives for Renault
Personally I’d like to see Wehrlein get the seat. Assuming Mercedes come out with a car that’s at least at the sharp end, either he performs well against Hamilton, in which we get a good scrap for the drivers’ title, or he doesn’t, in which case we get a good scrap for the constructors’.
If we knew as much as almost everyone above is pretending to know, there’d be no point watching.
Did Bottas trash Retiring Massa NO mooving on , no great drivers available for another year so save your pennies Wehrlein will go ok next year & Lewis will win at least 18 races even though he should win all of them ZZZZZ .
We are ready for colum inches stating greatest driver ever lived quoting Lewis, another long year at least every second week will be an existing Moto GP
Nothing like being positive…
I know he’s a gone driver, but Massa would love a decent car for a crack at some more wins. Brazil is a huge market for MB and he’s very well liked. Better than PW so long as Massa can keep it going for a year.
Why not JB for a year, then the other “better” drivers contracts are up for negotiation
Why do so many people have a fixation with the idea of Mercedes reviving Button’s career? Jenson was a good driver but he has appeared burned out for quite some time and has made it quite clear he is pleased to be leaving and planning other things for next year. To be honest he probably should have been given the boot in favour of Vandoorne at the end of 2015.
Why on earth would Mercedes want to bring him back? He is the past not the future and he has some kind of contract with McLaren still. Bringing back Massa would be more logical given he isn’t under contract but nobody is crazy enough to suggest that is a serious possibility.
It is time for fresh blood – what is the point in having these young driver programs if teams are just going to turn to ageing and fading stars rather than give the younger hungrier guys a crack?
As for Alonso? Give me a break. Nobody is that talented they are worth the money it would cost Merc to get him. Plus to say he is a “divisive character” is about the nicest way to put it. Merc simply don’t need to take the risk of him blowing up the team.
Hi Stephen, please see my post regarding Joe’s blog of the Dec 7, 6.18pm in relation to the case for JB.
Garry J. Berry
Stephen, agree with you, please see my post above of 7th Dec., 6.18pm regarding the benefits of JB in the 2nd Mercedes as I see it.
Obviously, if JB does not want to ‘play-ball’ it will not happen.
Garry
Hi Joe, any idea what the Werlein deal would look like? 1 year with an option for a second based on performance? Or 2yr with further option to extend.
If he gets the nod it would be a nice deal for him but I guess it could crush his carreer just as easy.
I am only a mind-reader, not a magician
I think that Jenson has made it perfectly clear that he’s out of F1 now and enjoying some ‘me’ time. The 2017 McLaren has potential, so if he wanted a good car he could have tried to stick with that earlier in the year rather than retiring.
My money is on Wehrlein on a 1 year deal, simply due to lack of other options.
Mercedes won’t want to spend millions and millions buying Alonso out of his contract for one year when they could get him or Vettel in 2018 when they’re out of contract without doing so. They have the star driver in Lewis, they can live with a back up for a year.
Bottas seems to be tied in to Williams, but if they can get him out I’d have said him.
Most drivers are tied up for 2017. 2018 is a very different story, and I would bet hat most of the negotiations are about 2018. Nobody thought that there would be a Merc seat available before 2019. I would further bet that whoever does get the gig will get one year with an option. That way if he turns out good then Merc have him, if he doesn’t then they can go shopping.
I don’t know if someone has pointed this out before but isn’t it possible that Alonso could pay off the last year (or atleast partly pay off) of his McLaren Contract? Given his age, this is his last chance to get to a winning car. He would be desperate to get into the Merc. Looking from the McLaren p.o.v., they stand to lose upto 140 million pounds in sponsorship due to Ron’s rejection. If they get that payment of 25-30 mil from Alonso and save that 25 mil which they would have otherwise paid him for the year, it certainly looks profitable for them.
Having said all that, Alonso to Merc looks less likely. Bottas or Pascal look to be the expected candidates.
I do not believe so
Of course, there is another internal candidate that fulfils Mercedes’ race driver job advert in AutoSport (brilliant), A world champion, quick, still wins races, good with the media, raced with Lewis for years and is already familiar with the 2017 car. Not German though.
Niki Lauda?
Joe are you certain that there isn’t a way for Grosjean to get the drive? He would win races as well as achieving solid podium performance.
This should make the drivers market towards the end of the 2017 season interesting as all the drivers coming off contract delay signing deals with their existing teams in order to try and get Wehrlein’s seat.
Judging by the amount of imaginative replies to the ‘pilot question’ –
‘Personality’ remains F1’s driving force.
Is it not more of a case that if Mercedes do get Alonso, it will keep the brand in the limelight and as ‘the’ story, in fact much more so than Lewis v Nico? Surely this is preferable as the most likely scenario, as you say yourself Joe, lots of Lewis and Pascal 1-2s. Surely that will be to the detriment of Formula One as a whole and to Mercedes as a brand? Don’t really understand your respect of F1 contracts too, Joe. There have been many cases in the past 25 years where contracts have been broken or bought out. Are you sure Alonso’s McLaren contract doesn’t have some kind of performance clause on the team’s side?
Has anyone called it “Nicogate” yet?
No, but I have seen a play on Brexit.
Nicexit?
Of course everyone is assuming Mercedes stay top of the heap under the new regulations – and therefore their vacant seat the most desirable. Me, I’m hoping McLaren, Ferrari, RB, Williams will give them a run for their money, and Alonso, Vettel et al will have reason to be grateful for having stayed put … (wishful thinking, I know, but hey, look what happened to Red Bull from 2013 to 2014)
Quite right too. Give Werlein the opportunity, didn’t do a rookie Hamilton much harm back in 2007….
When you look at Wehrlein’s record in F1 it doesn’t exactly dazzle. But then if you looked at Ricciado’s record before he went to Red Bull, you might well say the same. It is just possible that Wehrlein might repeat the feat and turn out to be just the job. Mercedes have given him the best chances for a while now as the first ‘academy’ driver and with everyone else tied up with contracts, he does appear to be front of the queue.
I think there will soon be some wrinkles on him if he is chosen.
Well I guess with that haircut he and Hambo can exchange metrosexual grooming hints on the drivers’ parade…..
Picture Stuttgart doing some scenario planning: Wehrlein struggles and Lewus gets injured and is out for a good few races (hope not). This could seriously undermine their 2017 campaign. Would Stuttgart take such a risk? Have they got a reserve driver with decent milage left?
Apologies, that is Lewis.
The only problem I see with the logic of it being Wehrlein, surely they would of announced it straight away, like Redbull did when Vettell left
I don’t think anybody wants to see Wehrlein in the car except for Wehrlein himself. He’s not very likeable, seems to have annoyed most of the people he’s worked with in the past, looks and talks like a robot and let’s be clear here: was not decisively better than Rio Haryanto in the car. At least, bot enough so to warrant the best seat in Formula 1.
If Esteban Ocon can come by towards the end of the season and shade him in many paddock figures’ estimation, that says a lot about Wehrlein too. Promoting him is dull, uninspired and frankly, risky. Red Bull have two phenomenal drivers. They will be best poised to take the Constructor’s title if the cars are in any way close on track.
Bottas is who will get the seat in my mind, as he’s a known quantity with a proven record of strong performances. Wehrlein has… kind of beaten Rio Haryanto, maybe, and been shaded by someone who has done a handful of races.
I’d like to.
Do you think he’ll give Hamilton a good challenge?
Forget about Wehrlein, it will be Carlos Sainz Jr.
I don’t think anyone’s mentioned Alex Rossi. He’s extremely marketable, and only out of F1 for 1 season. The fact that he’s American would reap F1 benefits, and he’d be a very good no. 2 to Lewis.
How long do you think it will be before Mercedes name their new driver? The longer it takes it seems to be undermining Pascal as he then appears as at best second choice. Have you seen him to judge his body language?